Tuesday, January 24, 2012

2011 Results: Accuracy in Preseason Rankings

I've been remiss in getting this post up, my apologies. I've been busy with the usual: toddler, work, and more toddler. And of course there's the gray cloud of Just-One-More-Game-Left-This-Season hanging over my head...congrats, Pats and Giants fans. We had our son decked out in a tiny Welker jersey that my Patriots-loving sister sent our way so I guess I'm pulling for the Patriots. Mostly though I'm just hoping for an entertaining game.

Last week I posted the results to the 2011 preseason rankings accuracy contest that I run each year - take a look at the write up on The Fifth Down: Fantasy Football Accuracy Rankings for 2011. There were 46 sites that participated this year and I have them all list below in alphabetical order:

4for4.com
Ask the Commish
Bruno Boys
CBSSports - Dave Richard
CBSSports - Jamey Eisenberg
Cheatsheetwarroom
Draft Analyzer
Draft Sharks
ESPN
FantasyFootball.com
Fantasy Football Nerd
Fantasy Football Sherpa
Fantasy Football Starters
Fantasy Football Trader
FantasySharks.com
Fantasy Shrink
Fantasy Think Tank
FastPoint Games
FF Guidebook
FFCalculator (ADP)
FFGeekBlog
FFManiaxs
FFToday.com
FFToolbox
FootballGuys
FootballOutsiders
FOX Sports
Hatty Waiver Wire Guru
The Huddle
Junkyard Jake
KFFL
NFL.com
NFLSoup.com
Pigskin Addiction
Power Play Fantasy Sports
ProFootballFocus.com
Pyromaniacs
Razzball.com
Real Time Sports
RotoProfessor
Rotoworld
SI
StocksJocks
USA Today
XML Team Solutions
Yahoo

The winner across all 4 positions looked at (QB, RB, WR and TE) was John Paulsen at The Fantasy Shrink. You can also find John on Twitter - @4for4_John. The top site at each position is as follows:

QB:
Fantasy Football Maniaxs

RB:
CBSSports.com (Jamey Eisenberg's rankings)

WR:
ESPN

TE:
The Fantasy Shrink

You can find the top 15 sites overall and top 10 at each position on the Fifth Down article. I'll be adding this year's results together with other past results to build upon the aggregate results spreadsheet I started a few years - and that is one chock full document, my friends. Definitely something you'll want to get your hands on before Draft Day 2012. I'm exploring new options of how to deliver this info to you all since I know many of you are very curious about which expert has the best advice, so stay tuned on that front.

On a similar note, if you haven't seen the FantasyPros.com results for their own accuracy competition, I highly recommend swinging by Fantasy Football Expert Accuracy Scores. FantasyPros.com takes a look at weekly start/sit recommendations rather than preseason rankings and if you combine these two assessments, I think you have a ton of advice in terms of the experts you'll want to focus on in the future. Good stuff.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Advice for Conference Championship week

Welcome to Conference Championship Week, my friends. I've been extremely busy over the past several days doing number crunching for my 5th annual rankings analysis. Every September I join forces with the Fantasy Sports Trade Association (FSTA) and put out a call to fantasy football experts inviting them to submit their preseason positional rankings. I then compare the experts' rankings to the actual fantasy rankings at the end of the season and determine which expert was the most accurate.

The results of the contest will be posted here with all sorts of detail on the top sites at each position and overall across the 4 offensive skill positions. There were 46 sites that participated this year and most of my favorites were included, so it's been a really fun contest to run yet again. The winner was announced at the FSTA conference late today and news will be flying around on Twitter I'm guessing. But come on back here for the details later in the week - stay tuned!

In the meantime, I've got a handful of links for those of you that are playing playoffs fantasy football. And by the way, kudos to the overall leader in the FFLibrarian Playoff Challenge, Amuk. Also, this past week's top player in our challenge was Lethal Arsenal. Keep up the good work!

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Divisional Round advice plus 2012 thoughts

Earlier this week I flew to New York City for a meeting at work - I still work for a museum library up there even though I'm now living in Knoxville. It was surprisingly awesome to be back and I was a bit taken aback by how much I missed the city. But it also left me with zero spare time for blogging - and you all know how eager I was to write and celebrate the Broncos' victory last week. I won't blab on and on about it, don't worry, but I was truly impressed with the caliber of play from several guys and am excited to see what they pull together this weekend.

I've got a handful of divisional round links for you as well as a few items on 2012. Read on:

For those playing in the FFLibrarian Playoff Challenge, it's great to have all 300+ of you around for the fun, and in particular, kudos to the top 3 teams so far: Casanovanauts, Tones, and Katphiche!

Friday, January 06, 2012

Pulling for a Broncos victory

My husband is out of town for an economics conference in Chicago this weekend and just realized that he'll be flying home during the end of the games on Sunday. Sad for him. I'm planning on putting my son to bed for the night by 4:30 on Sunday so that I don't miss a second of what I assume will be a brilliant Broncos victory. Kidding, kidding, my son wouldn't go for that...and perhaps a Broncos victory isn't in the cards. But we shall see! A Bronco fan can hope, can't she?!

  • A few more rankings and musings for the playoffs:
  • I can't get enough of seasonal analysis, especially comparing how players did at season's end to how they were predicted to do. Razzball.com examines this year's QBs in 2011 Quarterback ADP vs Reality and reminds us all yet again what a great grab Cam Newton was...and how on target Brady's ADP was.
  • If you truly can't get enough of analyzing football data then you'll want to head on over to Advanced NFL's 2011 Regular Season Play-by-Play Data.
  • In a look ahead to 2012, FFToolbox.com is rolling out their 2012 NFL Mock Drafts Database. Not fantasy mocks, mind you, but in the offseason this will seem like a juicy steak for the fantasy-starved.
  • In Free agents on the move, CBSSports.com reviews some of the key free agents and what the most likely scenario will be for the 2012 season for each player, including a note on their 2012 fantasy value.

Thursday, January 05, 2012

Time to bring in a pro

After living in our new house for 5 months and only managing to paint 1 of the 6 rooms that needs a new coat of paint, we finally decided it was time to bring in a professional. For the past few days a dude has been here painting (and cutting us an awesome deal) - since I have been at home with our son (who is now finally feeling back to normal again) and also work from home, I've been immersed in paint fumes...let's hope those fumes aren't forcing me to make crazy lineup decisions for the Wild Card weekend games in the FFLibrarian Playoff Challenge. Fortunately the experts are out there with advice to help us through this weekend and beyond.

  • For projections, scope out FantasySharks.com's Player Projections - Wildcard Weekend
  • Those of you who play in uber leagues with IDPers will appreciate ProFootballFocus.com's 2011 Playoffs IDP Rankings.
  • The Football Outsiders crew reviews a recent FO staff 8-round draft for the playoffs in Scramble for the Ball: Playoff Fantasy Draft.
  • Or see what FFToday writer Doug Orth has pulled together for his 5 leagues in the postseason in Road to the Super Bowl. This is full of some good analysis behind his picks for those who appreciate the detail.
  • Finally, if it's 2012 that you really care about then you'll want to take a look at Rotoworld's Final Target Watch article with a summary of all the targets and touches throughout the 2011 (and 2010) season. I love this sort of summary that looks at trends over the course of the season but also the past several years. Good food for thought.

Wednesday, January 04, 2012

Wild Card Round prep

Happy postseason to you all. Glad to have you here and I'm assuming you're all playing in some sort of playoff fantasy league since you just can't get enough of this great game. If you need a playoffs league to play in, join the 250+ of us playing in the FFLibrarian Playoff Challenge (e-mail me if you'd rather have an invitation e-mailed to you).

We've had a sick baby on our hands for the past few days and things took a turn for the worse this morning with multiple rounds of baby puke. So we're on the slow recovery train here and I haven't had a ton of time for blogging - hopefully this link dump will make up for my absence over the past few days.

Sunday, January 01, 2012

Consensus start/sit for Week 17

Welcome to the final week of fantasy football and thus the final installment of the consensus start/sit picks for the 2011 season. Hope you all found this feature helpful. There were far fewer start/sit articles out there this week so the following list is based on a more limited pool of sites. Good luck to those of you still playing!

Oh and Happy New Year to all!

QB
Start: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Philip Rivers
Sit: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Moore, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco

RB
Start: Khalil Bell, Ryan Mathews, Rashard Mendenhall, C.J. Spiller
Sit: Arian Foster, Shonn Greene, Cedric Benson

WR
Start: Steve Johnson, Malcom Floyd
Sit: Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall

TE
Start: Brandon Pettigrew, Brent Celek
Sit: no consensus

DST
Start: Falcons, Dolphins
Sit: Cowboys, Bengals

Kicker
Start: Alex Henery, Robbie Gould
Sit: Graham Gano