Thursday, June 28, 2012

Multi-year accuracy analysis is coming!

Good news - there's a reason I've been pretty silent here on FFLibrarian this week. I'm hard at work on those multi-year accuracy numbers that I think I promise every year and rarely actually produce. This time it's for real since I'm about 2/3 of the way through the process. As a refresher, every winter I pull together an analysis of 40-50 experts' pre-season rankings to determine which expert is the most accurate. I'm pulling together a look at the 2007-2011 results so stay tuned - hopefully I'll have a post up by the end of the weekend.

In the meantime, let's look at this week's links:

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Greetings, summer

It's hot. It's to be expected now that it's summer and I just feel grateful that I no longer live in NYC and must suffer through the truly disgusting subway commutes that are going on up there. Perhaps this heat wave is keeping you inside and you've got a little more time to cozy up with the ol' Internet. Good, I've got plenty of links for you today.

Friday, June 15, 2012

Hats off to you, Dads!

An early happy father's day to all you dads. I for one would be a muttering, frazzled fool without the love and help of my husband - and of course where would I be without my own amazing dad? Look at how he lights up my son's face. I'm indebted to my dad for years of compassion, generosity, and goofiness that I now see reflected in my own son. What a blessing.

So kudos to all you dads, grandpas, stepdads, and every kind of dad in between. Job well done.

Moving on to our more standard material: fantasy football awesomeness. Let's take a look at some end of the week linkage below:
  • If you're all about the mock results (or heck, real draft results), here are a few more to keep you entertained:
  • Looking for some sleeper thoughts? 
  • Speaking of great writers, remember Razzball.com's call for submissions for The Next Great Fantasy Football Writer? It's back again this year so if you've got the fantasy writing skills and  yearn for a little recognition, give it a whirl. 
  • The Hazean reviews the MJD situation from a fantasy perspective, Maurice Jones-Drew's Holdout and Fantasy Owners - good reading for those of us who own MJD in a dynasty league and need to think about potential insurance.
  • Let's get down to a little bit of strategy here - Rotoworld has a two-part piece on using Value Based Drafting - Part I and Part II.
  • I live in a Peyton-loving, Broncos-loving household so trust me, I post the following DavidGonos.com article with sorrow - Peyton Manning is NOT a top 10 quarterback - though I do really like the way he's pulled in commentary and rankings from across the fantasy landscape into his article. Nicely researched.
  • Finally, CBSSports.com has their 2012 team-by-team outlooks up which include a depth chart, 2011 fantasy leaders, and an injury report for all 32 teams. Three nice bits of info to help round out your offseason education.

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

ADP, mocks, rankings, etc.

We're in Day 4 of my son battling with a fever; it's a tough road, not gonna lie. He's finally on an antibiotic and I can't quite tell if he understands when I tell him that this sick pink medicine is going to help make him well (seriously, I shudder when I get a whiff of amoxicillin). We're on the verge of real communication with the little guy and I'm constantly surprised at how much he understands - so perhaps that's why he seems to be taking the medicine without an all-out limb-flinging fest. But right now I'm taking refuge in a Starbucks while my husband takes over on kiddo duty...what better time to get up a FFL post, right?

  • 24 teams opened minicamps today - love having another signal that the season is approaching. Review all that is to be learned in minicamp land in Rotoworld's Minicamp Preview: MJD's Mad.
  • So I think one of my new favorite sites this season might be The Pigskin Guy. Just feels like most of the articles are worth my time and I take away a little bit more knowledge. What more can you ask for? Scope out his growing ADP Breakdown series - this links you out to QBs. He takes a look at where players are going in early drafts on MyFantasyLeague.com and divulges why he thinks some players are over- or undervalued. I'll agree to differ with anyone who sees good things for Philip Rivers in 2012 but he does make a good point that Rivers in the 6th round could be a pretty solid deal. Other interesting things here: Peyton Manning and RGIII going in the 7th round followed by an intriguing trio of backups in Round 10. 
  • While on the topic of favorite sites, you just can't go wrong with advice from Yahoo's Andy Behrens. Read up on Ten fantasy assets to target beyond Round 10
  • If it's sleeper/breakout players you want, then Fantasy Knuckleheads have their Top 10 Breakout Fantasy Receivers for 2012 up - it's a slideshow-style piece, which I think is a little hard to discern from above the fold on my resolution, but just keep scrolling down and you'll figure the format out.
  • A review of a mock draft this time of year should be educational and Fantasy Alarm's Learning From Mocks certainly delivers. The author points out some of his key mistakes and encourages all to mock, mock, mock as the summer carries on. If nothing else, you can take a look at this draft to feel a bit better about your own; that sounds awfully harsh I realize and I should note that there are some solid picks here, too. 
  • For more mock results, take a look at what some experts put together with Athlon Sports' May Mock Draft.
  • ADP (average draft position) is another hot topic this time of year - FantasySharks.com's ADP Red Light - Green Light evaluates whether or not some contentious players are worth drafting at their current ADP or not. 
  • Without a doubt, FantasyOmatic.com is providing the most in-depth commentary on team defenses that I've seen. Lots of good stuff here - will link to the AFC West article for my fellow Broncos fans. 
  • TOFantasySports takes a look at strength of schedule (SOS) and provides a ranking and a bit of commentary on a handful of dudes in Strength of Schedule 2012: RBs.
  • A few rankings to review:
    • Athlon Sports' 2012 NFL Fantasy Football Big Board is super helpful - am sure I've linked out to it in the past but if you haven't used it before, I highly recommend it. They gather and average rankings from 7 big fantasy football sites (including Athlon Sports of course) and cover the Top 150 overall players.
    • Draft Calc's redraft rankings by position for 2012 (dynasty also available)

Thursday, June 07, 2012

Fantasy link roundup

Earlier this week I celebrated my 33rd birthday and in a few days I'll be celebrating my 6th wedding anniversary. It occurred to me that I've been married for about as long as I've been doing this blog (which I started in September 2006). Coincidence? Possibly, though I do have my husband to thank for getting me into the fantasy football world in the first place. So perhaps we'll be cheers-ing both ourselves and FFLibrarian this weekend. With candy and iron of course, the traditional 6th year anniversary gifts.

  • For starters, Yahoo's First Down: Shoddy Roddy, Martin mystique, and Lions unleashed...sort of is a nice recap of some recent news items.
  • This time of year you can access a lot of quality material on FootballGuys.com for free...it is absolutely worth your time to peruse FBG while you can. Take a look at their Redraft Quarterback Rankings for starters - you can manipulate the rankings as you please and note that there is commentary on some of the players where the ranking itself is hyperlinked.
  • Speaking of FootballGuys.com, I've been meaning to pull together a list of favorite podcasts for you all but since I was on the FBG website, I thought I could at least point you all to The Audible if you haven't already been listening to it. Scope it out for weekly insights brought to you podcast style. I always like to hear which podcasts you guys listen to the most, too - feel free to leave a note in the comments if you have a favorite. 
  • Now getting back to rankings that are freely available still, take a look at 4for4.com's positional Cheat Sheets - this one links out to their RBs.
  • For those of you who are planning a rookies-only draft at some point this summer, take a look at the outcome of a fantasy experts mock reviewed by Fantasy Knuckleheads - it's just 2 rounds but should give you a good idea of the ordering of the top rookies right now.
  • FootballandBrackets has been looking at players that seem to be shifting in the rankings these days - take a look at Risers and Fallers - WRs and TEs or head back a few days to QBs and RBs.
  • There are many mysteries in fantasy football, several situations that even the brightest and wisest of fantasy experts just won't be able to predict. But why not give it a stab and see what Dynasty League Football sees in store for the Patriots' backfield in Patriot Games: Vereen, Ridley, or none of the above?
  • Gotta love a statistically-based projection...well, I at least find it rather appealing. Don't get me wrong, gut/vision/instinct all play a roll in establishing projections as well but the numbers nerd in me likes seeing this evolving series from ProFootballFocus.com: 
  • Finally...NFL.com has now published their 2012 Draft Kit. Rankings, projections, sleepers, busts, etc. Voila!

Monday, June 04, 2012

Fantasy football reawakening

I need to reawaken the fantasy football beast within me. Yup, that's right, the beast. For whatever reason, I've been slow to get going this season and have few excuses other than a case of the May Travel Bug (seriously, every year we seem to be out of town for at least 3 weekends in May; what's up with the month of May?). We've been all around the south and up to Ohio, spending time with family and old friends. Things I've learned recently include the following: 1) The older I get, the less I dance at weddings. This is a shame. 2) 6 hours in the car with a toddler can be about as fun as it sounds. 3) But an inaugural trip to the aquarium with that same little dude can be so awesome. Loved watching him take it all in, calling out, "fish! fish!" 4) In preparing for the fantasy football season, personally I feel far more at ease coming up with busts rather than sleepers in the fantasy football world. Stay tuned on that last nugget in the next few weeks as I may have more to report on in the sleeper/bust realm.

But for now, there's plenty to link you out to now that OTAs have begun and June has arrived. Time to crank it up into high gear my friends. If there's anything you're looking for in particular, send me an e-mail and I promise to eventually read and respond. Even if it takes a few weeks. Or even longer (hey, at least I'm cringing as I type that).