Thursday, October 29, 2015

Week 8 Start & Sit, Rankings, IDP

We carved pumpkins in our house last night - we do it up with fancy templates and carving kits and such. When I was a kid, my sister and I basically just told my mom where to put the eyes and whether to make the pumpkin happy or toothy or menacing. But my husband and his family were far more advanced in their carving and that has spread to our family now - so last night my husband helped our oldest son carefully carved out a witch stirring her cauldron. The youngest mostly just stabbed at one of our other 9 pumpkins (yes, 9, too many pumpkin farm trips have been made...) while I carved Daniel Tiger's face into a pumpkin, much to the 2-year-old's delight. All hail the free templates from PBS Kids.

Let's head to this week's lineup help:

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

2015 Streaming Defenses: Week 8

I've got Bob back with his streaming defense knowledge - read on for his insight.


It’s time for streaming some of those defenses again and I’m here to help. Specifically, I do the research, and you pick your best option from the lists below. This week marks a change to my research. I’ve decided to do some in-depth data mining on my own, instead of depending on the research of others. As such I’ve compiled an extensive research spreadsheet of both the Defenses’ and the Offenses’ generosity. This gives me a great rankings system to use for analysis. With that I look at the matchups, specifically the strengths of the Defs and the weaknesses of the Offs. Then I look at trends that are emerging. Finally I look at the teams from a coaching and leadership angle, which gives me some intrinsic data that can be used to split those hairs.

But first, as usual, let’s look back at last week’s results. 

The highly owned averaged over 13 points last week, but was high due to STL’s beat down and 23 points. The streams for MIN and ATL worked out, but WAS and PIT fell short. WAS was a particular disappointment, but what a game!

So what does this week look like? Here are a couple of links you can use to help you sift through the quagmire. As usual, my analysis, may or may not align with the pros.


Here are the ownership and projections for Defs this week of the ‘highly owned’ defenses. Highly owned being better than 80% this week. There are only 4 highly owned recommendations this week, so look closely at the six streams below.

Highly Owned Defs
Team
Opp
Proj
Owned
Comments
SEA
@DAL
8.16
100%
SEA #5 Def, DAL #16 OFF, 3rd string QB for DAL, SEA is a very safe start.
ARI
@CLE
9.77
98%
ARI #2 Def, CLE #3 Off, Johnny back at the wheel, yeah 2nd best start of the week.
STL
SF
10.42
95%
STL #5 Def, SF #1 Off, SF is a mess and STL Def is tough, best start of the week.
BUF
Bye

93%
Bye week need and alternative
DEN
GB
5.89
93%
Uh oh, #1 Def against a top Off, you have to start them but temper expectations.
CAR
IND
7.75
87%
CAR #6 Def, IND #18 Off, I don't know what's going on with Luck, but until he proves he can manage the pressure, I start this defense.
NE
MIA
9.78
87%
NE #23 Def, MIA #21 Off, I don't like this matchup, MIA is surging behind their new coach, this could be a close game, and I'd look elsewhere.
PHI
Bye

85%
Bye week need and alternative

So I like only four of highly owned this week, so I give you six streams this week that could keep you in contention.
Week 8 Streaming Options
Team
Opp
Proj
Owned
Comment
GB
@DEN
7.25
73%
GB #7 Def, DEN #12 Off, this is going to be a bad day for Manning, this is the 6th best start with upside, start 'em.
ATL
TB
8.85
51%
ATL #8 Def, TB #5 Off, ATL is a better Def at home, 3rd best matchup of the week, best stream of the week
NYG
@NO
6.75
23%
NYG #9 Def, NO #6 Off, 4th best matchup of the week and 2nd best stream of the week.
MIN
@CHI
8.37
30%
MIN #6 DEF, CHIE #7 Off, don't look for points off the scoring or yards gained, as I think Cutler has all his weapons back, but expect a bunch of sacks and possible special teams points, 6th best matchup of the week, 3rd best stream of the week
KC
DET
5.73
45%
KC #14 Def, DET #9 Off, 8th best matchup of the week, KC is averaging 12+ pts in the last 3 games, 4th best stream,
NYJ
@OAK
6.33
58%
NYJ #10 DEF, OAK #26 Def, this one is based more on trends, good Defs have had their way with OAK where poor ones have done poorly. Jets are a good Def, they will stop Murray and force Carr into errors. Only the 12th best start but with upside.
HOU
TEN
6.91
70%
HOU #26 Def, TEN #2 Off, 26th and I'm suggesting starting them??? Well it has more to do with TEN than HOU. HOU still can get to the QB and with a new one behind center, that makes for upside. I don't like HOU but I like this matchup. Start if you don't have any other options.

That’s it for this week. Keep reading and keep streaming. Remember, every week there’s always one DEF on the waiver list that can come through for you that week. It’s just knowing which one it is; this week it’s Green Bay.

Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Small victories and the waiver wire

So our five-year-old son eats basically the same 10 foods over and over and over again. Which means I periodically get inspired to incorporate more variety into his diet. Easier said than done says every parent of a picky eater. But get this: last week I got the boy to try broccoli and like it. You can hail me a genius, I'll take it. I got all Pinterest-y on my family, made a lovely display of green foods, and told everyone we were doing a rainbow food challenge starting with the color green. Everyone had to take at least one teeny bit of the green foods I picked out, which were mostly fruits and vegetables but included green m&ms, too, since I needed a little buy-in from the kid. We rated everything with a smiley, neutral, or sad face and BAM: he tried everything. Broccoli and celery even received the elusive smiley face. Victory. There aren't many food victories in my house so I take them when I can get them.

Same goes with my victories on the fantasy football landscape this season - they are just few and far between, my friends. We all have off years and this is most definitely not my year. For example, I snagged some solid guys off of waivers, but then failed to set my lineups this week. Or I bench players precisely when their big week is coming. It's just been that kind of season for me. I wish you all have been far more productive and invested than I am, but if you need an assist on waivers, here's some advice.

And per my son's repeated requests, we're moving on through the food rainbow this week; red is up next, baby. And perhaps I'll actually have a few fantasy victories to boot.

Thursday, October 22, 2015

Week 7 Start/Sit and Rankings

Hope you all have had a good week - I've been trying to get the normal number of posts up this week but we're busy firming up Halloween costumes for our boys and otherwise enjoying the gorgeous fall weather here in Tennessee. Let's get started with today's start/sit, rankings, and IDP links.

Wednesday, October 21, 2015

2015 Streaming Defenses: Week 7

Bob is back with his streaming defense articles - I know you all have missed him. Wait no longer!


Hello folks, I’m back from a vacation in sunny Scottsdale AZ, but still recovering from bronchitis that I got on my last two days there. That’s gonna be my excuse for missing last week’s article and I’m sticking to it. And looking back I’m glad I didn’t make any huge predictions, because it was a very strange week for defenses. The top 5 were: MIA, PHI, DEN, NOS, and HOU. Notice only DEN and PHI are highly owned. I’m going to have to suspend my bias against PHI at this point. But I don’t think many saw MIA and NOS as savior streamers last week. There were still some believers in HOU, owned at 76%, but that was their best performance to date.

Take a look at the top 5 generous offenses we have: CHI in 1st, SF in 2nd, CLE in 3rd, SEA in 4th, and DET in 5th. It makes you consider your targets a little more carefully. JAC proved a good target last week, as did WAS, but they are the 11th and 10th most generous, respectively, at this point. So we have to look more closely at the matchups this week. Last week sobered us up as to locking into our targets.

So what does this week look like? Here are a couple of links you can use to help you sift through the quagmire. As usual, my analysis, may or may not align with the pros.



Here are the ownership and projections for Defs this week of the ‘highly owned’ defenses. Highly owned being better than 75% this week.
Highly Owned Defs
Team
Opp
Proj
Owned
Comments
SEA
@SF
9.43
100%
SF gives up the 2nd most points to DEFs, and SEA needs to right the ship. They will do it with Def, start with confidence
ARI
BAL
9.17
98%
ARI is highly owned based on AVG points scored, but it is a bit deceiving since most points came on only two games. BAL is stingy giving up DEF points, 11th least points given up, I'd temper my expectations.
DEN
Bye
0
96%
The top Def is not available this week, ouch
GB
Bye
0
91%
The 5th best Def is not available this week, another ouch.
BUF
@JAC
8.89
90%
BUF is in London and there's a bit of turmoil with the DEF coaching staff, look for some changes to return to early season form and put a hurt on a Bortles who was harassed constantly by a weak HOU pass rush last week.
NE
NYJ
7.5
87%
This should be a good week for NE, they are planning on forcing the Jets to pass, and you know what happens then…start 'em.
PHI
@CAR
7.55
78%
OK, I'm a little biased against the Eagles DEF I admit, but I don't see them catching Cam. I'd temper my expectations and that's as far as I can go on this team.
STL
CLE
9.86
78%
STL is heating up again and they are at home against a team that will tend to drop back a lot. CLE is the 3rd most generous to DEFs, I like this matchup this week, start 'em.
CAR
PHI
8.33
78%
You saw what WAS did against PHI last game just think what a seasoned DEF will do, start 'em.

So I like only five of highly owned this week, but here are some juicy streams that could outperform and one I would avoid.
Team
Opp
Proj
Owned
Comment
HOU
@MIA
8.29
67%
I think this is a trap game. I'd pick MIA as a defense this week before HOU. Don't fall for one week performance against a weak offensive line. Stay away.
WAS
TB
7.87
4%
WAS is still not owned like they should be. This is a great matchup at home against a good target. Give them a start.
PIT
@KC
7.32
17%
KC is in ruins, and the PIT Def will take advantage of it, give them a start this week.
ATL
@TEN
6.84
32%
Mariota is taking a lot of hits lately. ATL laid an egg on Def last week, but I like a rebound this week.
MIN
@DET
6.62
33%
DET won last week against a weak DEF that still got 8 points, watch what MIN does this week to Stafford, ouch.

That’s it for this week. Keep reading and keep streaming. Remember, every week there’s always one DEF on the waiver list that can come through for you that week. It’s just knowing which one it is….