Comments on Fantasy Football Librarian: Mocking my way through the day

Given that you have a site read by millions, and I...

2009-07-02T14:21:57.516-04:00

Given that you have a site read by millions, and I have one read by me, I would probably assume that you will be right come January. Maybe this is all projected bitterness from my full keeper league, in which I traded Turner prior to last season for the rights to Braylon Edwards...

Keep up the good work, I don't mean to start fights, but the wisdom of the crowds only works if there is a crowd to provide feedback!

Matt, you're good. I like this kind of feedbac...

2009-07-01T18:29:57.495-04:00

Matt, you're good. I like this kind of feedback. It's unlikely to me that Turner will have 375 again this year but I think something in the 330 range is entirely likely. Let's say he can keep up his 4.5 ypc on 330 attempts - nearly 1500 yards, not too shabby. Even if his ypc bumps down to 4.0, still over 1300 yards (4.5 is his lowest ypc, though I realize that's not entirely fair since 08 was his first season as a starter...but still). And with a playmaker like Gonzo on the scene, I envision the ball moving down the field more, perhaps opening up Turner's chances for goal-line TDs. I like Norwood quite a bit but I think Turner gets first stab at TDs, no? And yes, Gonzo moving the ball down the field more might cost Turner some carries but I still think he'll have a 330ish attempts kind of stat line and just benefit from an increase in TDs.

As for LT, love the guy in PPR this league and it was a really hard choice for me between LT and Turner (though I'll note that in the past 5 seasons, LT has only hit 60 rec once). But Jackson and Westbrook I think are too risky to say that they will have 60 catches. Jackson is way too erratic; 90 catches in 2006 but otherwise he's been under 45 every year. And I'm just not feeling him this year - call it gut. Now Westbrook I'd take before Turner except I think the writing is on the wall for him and the injury risk is just too great for me.

We might have to agree to disagree on this one. Or meet in the schoolyard to duke it out. Or just talk about how right on the other person was come January. :)

It isn't JUST that he doesn't catch the ba...

2009-07-01T16:54:42.954-04:00

It isn't JUST that he doesn't catch the ball, it's a cornucopia of things that would turn me off.

1) The carries. Do you think he will get the ball 375 times again this year? If he doesn't, what is a safe assumption on the loss of carries? 25, 50, 75? If he loses 50 carries, that's probably around 40 points or so from lost yardage and TD opportunities.

2) The catches. Assume LT or Jackson will have 60 catches this year, for 420 yards and 1 TD each. That is 108 points, of which Turner will probably recoup 20.

These two assumptions, taken together (and I think both are 100% reasonable), mean that Turner is losing about 130 points of his value. That is a lot of risk for the #4 pick...

I was very tempted to grab LT at the 4th overall. ...

2009-07-01T12:58:54.356-04:00

I was very tempted to grab LT at the 4th overall. I'm feeling very uncertain about Steven Jackson and Brian Westbrook this year, mostly from an injury standpoint, so I felt like Turner was the safer pick despite the potential lack of receptions he has as compared to those guys. Plus I think the Atlanta o-line wants to prove they can do it again in 09 and will provide some solid run blocking for Turner once again. I really like Turner quite a bit this season so I feel like grabbing him at 4th overall is pretty much ideal.

With so many WRs flying off the board, I was conflicted over what to do with my 2nd round pick. I didn't go QB since I really do think I can get someone great in the 4th or 5th round. Brandon Jacobs was incredibly tempting but I decided to go with Steve Smith instead. I'm looking forward to seeing which great player I can get in the 3rd round!

I can't understand taking Micheal Turner at 4t...

2009-07-01T10:24:02.361-04:00

I can't understand taking Micheal Turner at 4th overall, particularly in a PPR league. There are many things working against Turner;

1) The Curse of 370. Regardless of whether you believe in the curse or not, recognize that last year was incredibly valuable mostly because he had so many carries. If he goes down to 300 carries, whether from injury, rest or whatnot, his value plummets.
2) Jerious Norwood. Possibly the most talented backup running back in the league, Atlanta SHOULD figure out to use him more.
3) This is a PPR league, and Turner had few catches last year.

Turner is a late first this year, at best, particularly in a PPR format, which pushes him below LT, Jackson and Gore, all of whom were on the board at four, and would have made a better pick, in my mind.

Odd, there's another expert league draft in wh...

2009-07-01T10:12:30.751-04:00

Odd, there's another expert league draft in which 3 WRs were taken in round one (Andre Johnson, Larry Fitz., Calvin Johnson), over at FantasyIndepth.com for all results see http://bit.ly/wlGwQ

There's some truly strange picks in that particular expert draft. Almost reminds me of the experts on Wall Street, laugh....

Interesting mix of picks in the 1st round there FF...

2009-07-01T08:40:32.459-04:00

Interesting mix of picks in the 1st round there FFlibrarian:

M. Turner is a decent pick, just hard to see him having a better year, with A. Gonzo catching balls from Matt Ryan next year. Still though a solid pick overall, but I'm a fan of DeAngelo Williams who was taken with the 12th pick (great value there).

Why so many WRs taken in the 1st round of your FF expert draft?
#7 Larry Fitz., #9 Andre Johnson, #11 Randy Moss

Are three people going for the two-three elite WRs strategy? Too dependent on an good o-line & QB I think. At least an elite RB, needs only an decent o-line at most: Peterson, Turner, et la.

No QB taken to this point in time, 2nd round 6th pick, bizarre... Brees, Rivers, Manning, Warner, A-Rogers, Tom Brady all available.

But the truly odd thing is the greatest difference between the given spots in a std. yahoo FF league points totals last season, was the top TEs versus top QB/RBs/WRs/KR/Def: A. Gonzo (chiefs, now falcons), Jason Witten (cowboys), and A. Gates (chargers)

The gap in point totals was much closer in the QB/WRs/KR/DEF spots than in with the TE, if one is looking at the top 3-5 Elite players versus every other player. So I'm curious who's going to grab those top 3 TEs, if recent FF history repeats itself??

I second that question, How/When do we sign up for the FFLibrarian league???

How/When do we sign up for the FFLibrarian league?...

2009-06-30T16:21:37.325-04:00

How/When do we sign up for the FFLibrarian league?

Turner's a solid pick but I would've been ...

2009-06-30T15:14:55.238-04:00

Turner's a solid pick but I would've been awfully tempted to take a chance on Tomlinson because of the PPR scoring.

Anyone else you were strongly considering?