Tuesday, December 06, 2016

Streaming Defenses - Week 14

Holidays are in full swing at our house - we visited in family in Atlanta last week and saw the Christmas parade and went on a "sleigh ride" with the kids, and now it's time for Christmas tree trimming, present list making, and meltdowns from my little people. Sounds about right. Fortunately we have Bob's thoughts on streaming defenses below. And no promises, since clearly I can't seem to get my act together, but hopefully I'll be back with start/sit links later this week. 


Well, it had to happen sooner or later, I just wish it hadn’t been the week where leagues decide playoffs. The streamers did just terrible and I couldn’t even blame it on the weather. The biggest factor was that most of our favorite targets were playing highly owned teams and it showed. Another factor that I missed was the desire of teams fighting for playoff spots (TB, DET, BAL). We’ll remember that going forward.

And our prognostications were off, not just on the viable streamers, but also the outside streamers. In fact, the outside streamers (in red) did way better than the recommended ones. Sheesh. I remember having a discussion with a couple of readers that MIA was a better start than BAL. Boy, was I off on that one, and apologize. 

Week 13 Highly Owned
Team
Opp
% Owned
Proj Pts
Actual
SEA
CAR
98%
11
11
DEN
@JAC
97%
13
18
MIN
DAL
96%
2
12
NEP
LAR
96%
14
16
KC
@ATL
94%
6
10
ARI
WAS
92%
6
10
PHI
@CIN
81%
4
4
  Avg



11.57
Streams for Week 13
Team
Opp
% Owned
Proj Pts
Actual
MIA
@BAL
62%
10
4
WAS
@ARI
11%
10
3
SDC
TB
21%
10
5
NO
DET
22%
9
2
GB
HOU
28%
8
9
OAK
BUF
44%
6
11
DAL
@MIN
48%
2
9
NYG
@PIT
56%
4
9
  Avg



5.67


But I won’t be thwarted, since this is the only week of the entire season that was a train wreck for streamers. Hope you stocked up on some of the teams I suggested stashing for the playoffs because they’re going to show up on the weeks going forward. And this week, most of our targets are meeting some good streamers. We’ll see how that shakes out. Here’s how I see Week 14 with an emphasis on the playoff recommendations from last week.
Week 14 Highly Owned
Team
Opp
% Owned
Proj Pts
Comments
DEN
@TEN
99%
8
Titans have learned how to protect their QB, on the road DEN struggles, temper expectations.
SEA
@GB
98%
12/6
Weather dependent, if bad weather, high upside, if nice weather, temper expectations.
NEP
BAL
97%
13
2nd best start of the week for the highly owned.
MIN
@JAC
95%
14
Best highly owned matchup of the week, against a great target. #1 highly owned start.
KCC
OAK
93%
12/6
Watch for weather on this one, if bad, then I like the matchup. But if weather is fair, beware the stingy Raiders.
ARI
@MIA
91%
8
ARI Def has been so-so lately, and MIA is stingy, especially at home. If you start, temper your expectation
PHI
WAS
82%
4
Eagles just aren't the Def team they were midseason, look elsewhere.
Streams for Week 14
CIN
@CLE
33%
12
Bengals came awake last week and now they have the biggest target with potential rain and snow mix. #1 stream this week.
DET
CHI
9%
9
Bears are in shambles, and DET Def has come alive, looking toward the division. 2nd best stream of the week.
WAS
@PHI
12%
8
PHI has given up, but WAS has not, I love this stream this week. 3rd best stream. (recommended playoff pickup)
CAR
SDC
70%
8
CAR is surging and SD is now out of the playoffs. Watch for a surge on DEF especially if Kuechly is out of protocol.
MIA
ARI
63%
8
Cards had their way with a soft Def last week but MIA at home will present problems. 5th best stream (recommended playoff pickup)
TEN
DEN
11%
10/6
Depends on who the DEN QB is, good upside if Lynch, otherwise just a so-so start. (recommended playoff pickup)
ATL
@LAR
16%
6
Rams are a great target but I don't know about the Falcons defense. Many are touting this as a great start, but I would temper expectations.


Good luck on your first playoff game, and once again, sorry I missed on a very important week.