2011 Results: Accuracy in Preseason Rankings

I've been remiss in getting this post up, my apologies. I've been busy with the usual: toddler, work, and more toddler. And of course there's the gray cloud of Just-One-More-Game-Left-This-Season hanging over my head...congrats, Pats and Giants fans. We had our son decked out in a tiny Welker jersey that my Patriots-loving sister sent our way so I guess I'm pulling for the Patriots. Mostly though I'm just hoping for an entertaining game.

Last week I posted the results to the 2011 preseason rankings accuracy contest that I run each year - take a look at the write up on The Fifth Down: Fantasy Football Accuracy Rankings for 2011. There were 46 sites that participated this year and I have them all list below in alphabetical order:

4for4.com
Ask the Commish
Bruno Boys
CBSSports - Dave Richard
CBSSports - Jamey Eisenberg
Cheatsheetwarroom
Draft Analyzer
Draft Sharks
ESPN
FantasyFootball.com
Fantasy Football Nerd
Fantasy Football Sherpa
Fantasy Football Starters
Fantasy Football Trader
FantasySharks.com
Fantasy Shrink
Fantasy Think Tank
FastPoint Games
FF Guidebook
FFCalculator (ADP)
FFGeekBlog
FFManiaxs
FFToday.com
FFToolbox
FootballGuys
FootballOutsiders
FOX Sports
Hatty Waiver Wire Guru
The Huddle
Junkyard Jake
KFFL
NFL.com
NFLSoup.com
Pigskin Addiction
Power Play Fantasy Sports
ProFootballFocus.com
Pyromaniacs
Razzball.com
Real Time Sports
RotoProfessor
Rotoworld
SI
StocksJocks
USA Today
XML Team Solutions
Yahoo

The winner across all 4 positions looked at (QB, RB, WR and TE) was John Paulsen at The Fantasy Shrink. You can also find John on Twitter - @4for4_John. The top site at each position is as follows:

QB:
Fantasy Football Maniaxs

RB:
CBSSports.com (Jamey Eisenberg's rankings)

WR:
ESPN

TE:
The Fantasy Shrink

You can find the top 15 sites overall and top 10 at each position on the Fifth Down article. I'll be adding this year's results together with other past results to build upon the aggregate results spreadsheet I started a few years - and that is one chock full document, my friends. Definitely something you'll want to get your hands on before Draft Day 2012. I'm exploring new options of how to deliver this info to you all since I know many of you are very curious about which expert has the best advice, so stay tuned on that front.

On a similar note, if you haven't seen the FantasyPros.com results for their own accuracy competition, I highly recommend swinging by Fantasy Football Expert Accuracy Scores. FantasyPros.com takes a look at weekly start/sit recommendations rather than preseason rankings and if you combine these two assessments, I think you have a ton of advice in terms of the experts you'll want to focus on in the future. Good stuff.

Advice for Conference Championship week

Welcome to Conference Championship Week, my friends. I've been extremely busy over the past several days doing number crunching for my 5th annual rankings analysis. Every September I join forces with the Fantasy Sports Trade Association (FSTA) and put out a call to fantasy football experts inviting them to submit their preseason positional rankings. I then compare the experts' rankings to the actual fantasy rankings at the end of the season and determine which expert was the most accurate.

The results of the contest will be posted here with all sorts of detail on the top sites at each position and overall across the 4 offensive skill positions. There were 46 sites that participated this year and most of my favorites were included, so it's been a really fun contest to run yet again. The winner was announced at the FSTA conference late today and news will be flying around on Twitter I'm guessing. But come on back here for the details later in the week - stay tuned!

In the meantime, I've got a handful of links for those of you that are playing playoffs fantasy football. And by the way, kudos to the overall leader in the FFLibrarian Playoff Challenge, Amuk. Also, this past week's top player in our challenge was Lethal Arsenal. Keep up the good work!

• Conference championship week info:
• LestersLegends.com's Conference Championships Fantasy RB Rankings
• If you're in need of a playoffs QB now, as tempting as it is, maybe taking Brady isn't the smart way out? Think about your playoffs strategy with NFL.com's Time to take a chance on Flacco or Smith?
• FFToolbox.com's Week 20 Who to Start Rankings/Projections
• ProFootballFocus.com's Championship Week Projections
• Or turn your mind toward 2012 and CBSSports.com's Top 12 RBs for 2012 - I'm interested in your thoughts about Jamaal Charles at #10. Too low for such a potential stud who could be back to 100%? Too high for a guy coming off a big injury? Or just right? I'm still trying to decide (and probably will take the next 6-7 months to firm up my opinion) but I'm not sure I'd let him sit there until the 10th pick came along...

Divisional Round advice plus 2012 thoughts

Earlier this week I flew to New York City for a meeting at work - I still work for a museum library up there even though I'm now living in Knoxville. It was surprisingly awesome to be back and I was a bit taken aback by how much I missed the city. But it also left me with zero spare time for blogging - and you all know how eager I was to write and celebrate the Broncos' victory last week. I won't blab on and on about it, don't worry, but I was truly impressed with the caliber of play from several guys and am excited to see what they pull together this weekend.

I've got a handful of divisional round links for you as well as a few items on 2012. Read on:

• Divisional round advice:
• ProFootballFocus.com's Here Comes Stevan Ridley 
• FantasySharks.com's Player Projections - Division Weekend
• Or more projections at ProFootballFocus.com - Divisional Playoffs - Projections/Rankings
• FFToday.com's updated positional Playoff Fantasy Rankings
• For IDP advice this weekend and beyond, scope out one of the following:
• FantasySharks.com's IDP Cheatsheet: Divisional Round 
• ProFootballFocus.com's IDP Fantasy Football Players to Target on Divisional Weekend
• CBSSports.com's Under the radar: They're not stars but could play key role in playoffs
• 2012 thoughts:
• NFL.com's Three and out: Turner has bust written all over him
• FantasyFootballXtreme.com's 2012 Fantasy Football Rankings & Cheat Sheets Updated - redraft rankings, dynasty rankings, PPR rankings, etc.
• Matthew Berry's First look at 2012 fantasy football ranks
• FantasySharks.com's Early 2012 rankings
• CBSSports.com's Top 12 QBs for 2012

For those playing in the FFLibrarian Playoff Challenge, it's great to have all 300+ of you around for the fun, and in particular, kudos to the top 3 teams so far: Casanovanauts, Tones, and Katphiche!

Pulling for a Broncos victory

My husband is out of town for an economics conference in Chicago this weekend and just realized that he'll be flying home during the end of the games on Sunday. Sad for him. I'm planning on putting my son to bed for the night by 4:30 on Sunday so that I don't miss a second of what I assume will be a brilliant Broncos victory. Kidding, kidding, my son wouldn't go for that...and perhaps a Broncos victory isn't in the cards. But we shall see! A Bronco fan can hope, can't she?!

• A few more rankings and musings for the playoffs:
• Pyromaniac.com's Player Rankings for Playoffs Week 1
• TOFantasySports' Wild Card QB Rankings
• NFL.com has a series that goes through the debates you might be having at who to start at each position - this link reviews the conundrum of who else to start at WR in the AFC other than Welker. 
• ProFootballFocus.com's The Playoff Predictor gives advice on who to start at each position be it this week or in the weeks beyond.
• I can't get enough of seasonal analysis, especially comparing how players did at season's end to how they were predicted to do. Razzball.com examines this year's QBs in 2011 Quarterback ADP vs Reality and reminds us all yet again what a great grab Cam Newton was...and how on target Brady's ADP was.
• If you truly can't get enough of analyzing football data then you'll want to head on over to Advanced NFL's 2011 Regular Season Play-by-Play Data.
• In a look ahead to 2012, FFToolbox.com is rolling out their 2012 NFL Mock Drafts Database. Not fantasy mocks, mind you, but in the offseason this will seem like a juicy steak for the fantasy-starved.
• In Free agents on the move, CBSSports.com reviews some of the key free agents and what the most likely scenario will be for the 2012 season for each player, including a note on their 2012 fantasy value.

Time to bring in a pro

After living in our new house for 5 months and only managing to paint 1 of the 6 rooms that needs a new coat of paint, we finally decided it was time to bring in a professional. For the past few days a dude has been here painting (and cutting us an awesome deal) - since I have been at home with our son (who is now finally feeling back to normal again) and also work from home, I've been immersed in paint fumes...let's hope those fumes aren't forcing me to make crazy lineup decisions for the Wild Card weekend games in the FFLibrarian Playoff Challenge. Fortunately the experts are out there with advice to help us through this weekend and beyond.

• For projections, scope out FantasySharks.com's Player Projections - Wildcard Weekend
• Those of you who play in uber leagues with IDPers will appreciate ProFootballFocus.com's 2011 Playoffs IDP Rankings.
• The Football Outsiders crew reviews a recent FO staff 8-round draft for the playoffs in Scramble for the Ball: Playoff Fantasy Draft.
• Or see what FFToday writer Doug Orth has pulled together for his 5 leagues in the postseason in Road to the Super Bowl. This is full of some good analysis behind his picks for those who appreciate the detail.
• Finally, if it's 2012 that you really care about then you'll want to take a look at Rotoworld's Final Target Watch article with a summary of all the targets and touches throughout the 2011 (and 2010) season. I love this sort of summary that looks at trends over the course of the season but also the past several years. Good food for thought.

Wild Card Round prep

Happy postseason to you all. Glad to have you here and I'm assuming you're all playing in some sort of playoff fantasy league since you just can't get enough of this great game. If you need a playoffs league to play in, join the 250+ of us playing in the FFLibrarian Playoff Challenge (e-mail me if you'd rather have an invitation e-mailed to you).

We've had a sick baby on our hands for the past few days and things took a turn for the worse this morning with multiple rounds of baby puke. So we're on the slow recovery train here and I haven't had a ton of time for blogging - hopefully this link dump will make up for my absence over the past few days.

• First up, these articles offer up a little advice on how to approach a playoff league:
• CBSSports.com's Up for a challenge? offers up a potential lineup for Wild Card weekend
• NFL.com's Rodgers, Brees could lead you to Super Bowl XLVII! outlines some of the rules for the NFL.com playoff game, which is the host of the FFLibrarian version so it might behoove you to scope it out pre-game time. 
• All sorts of playoff rankings:
• FFToolbox.com's Week #18 Who to Start Rankings
• Roto Arcade's Shuffle Up for the Playoffs: Second Season Cheat Sheet
• Razzball.com's Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings
• ProFootballWeekly.com's Second season is for redemption (video starts immediately)
• ProFootballFocus.com's Playoff Player Rankings - or if you've got IDPs in your playoff league, check out their Wild Card Playoffs - IDP Rankings/Projections.
• LestersLegends.com's Wild Card Round Fantasy WR Rankings

Consensus start/sit for Week 17

Welcome to the final week of fantasy football and thus the final installment of the consensus start/sit picks for the 2011 season. Hope you all found this feature helpful. There were far fewer start/sit articles out there this week so the following list is based on a more limited pool of sites. Good luck to those of you still playing!

Oh and Happy New Year to all!

QB
Start: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Philip Rivers
Sit: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Moore, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco

RB
Start: Khalil Bell, Ryan Mathews, Rashard Mendenhall, C.J. Spiller
Sit: Arian Foster, Shonn Greene, Cedric Benson

WR
Start: Steve Johnson, Malcom Floyd
Sit: Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall

TE
Start: Brandon Pettigrew, Brent Celek
Sit: no consensus

DST
Start: Falcons, Dolphins
Sit: Cowboys, Bengals

Kicker
Start: Alex Henery, Robbie Gould
Sit: Graham Gano

Help for Week 17 lineups

Today a close friend from college is driving through Knoxville with her family en route back to their home in Athens, Georgia, and they'll be making an overnight pit stop at our place. I couldn't be more excited since it has been too long since I last saw her (and have yet to meet her son who is about my son's age) - plus, how often does someone come through Knoxville? Pretty much never. When we were living in NYC I got pretty spoiled with the number of visitors we had - Knoxville isn't exactly the same hub of activity. Plus we've got family coming to town this weekend so we've got fun times ahead - hope you all do, too. An early Happy New Year's to everyone!

In the meantime, on to today's links:

• Start/sit suggestions for Week 17:
• Fifth Down's Week 17 in Fantasy Football: Favorable and Unfavorable Matchups
• Matthew Berry's Love, Hate and a torn sleeve
• CBSSports.com's Week 17 Start 'Em and Sit 'Em
• NFL.com's Rivers, Mathews have attractive Week 17 matchups
• ProFootballWeekly.com's So long to 2011; hello to 2012 does a good job of reviewing some of the early news items for the 2012 season, with an eye on players to focus on next year (note, a video starts up immediately on this page). 
• Or scope out the next article in Roto Arcade's Exit Interview series - this time with a look at WRs including some of next year's rookies that you'll want to keep an eye on as well as sleepers for 2012.

With an eye toward 2012

I kind of love this week between Christmas and New Year's Day - things are a little bit more mellow, lots of family and friends around, college football is on almost non-stop, and there's always the feeling that change is impending. I dig it. What I don't like is the end of the standard fantasy football season and I'm sure you all feel the same way. Just a reminder that I'll keep blogging throughout the off-season with plenty of info for the 2012 season.

I also hope that you're all planning on playing in the FFLibrarian Playoff Challenge this year - this link should help you set up a login or you can just e-mail me for an invitation.

Finally, those of you who have been participating in the weekly accuracy start/sit challenge run by FantasyPros.com should be pleased to know that we came in 4th place - check out the results here. Many, many thanks to those of you that played each week. Meanwhile if you want to see how the experts did, scope out the results which have one of my favorites, Chet Gresham of Razzball fame, coming out on top.  

But I know there are plenty of you out there looking for Week 17 help, so read on:

• First things first, CBSSports.com's Who's in and who's out does a great job zeroing in on which players we can expect to see in action this weekend. For more on that front, Rotoworld's Who Can You Trust and Roto Arcade's Playing Hard or Hardly Playing: Deciphering Week 17 offer similar helpful advice.
• Start/sit for Week 17:
• FantasySharks.com's Start/Bench List 
• FFToolbox.com's Week 17: Sit 'em
• FantasyFootballXtreme.com's Week 17 Start 'em and Sit 'em Advice
• A few waiver links for IDPers:
• FantasySharks.com's IDP Waiver Wire: Week 17
• ProFootballFocus.com's IDP Waiver Wire - Week 17
• Or take a look at FFToday's IDP Notes: Week 17
• NFL.com's Foster big 2011 could lead to bigger things in 2012 is a quick look ahead at next year.
• Or for more on 2012, scope out Roto Arcade's Exit Interview: RBs' ongoing decline leaves many questions; it's part of a series that will focus on each position - plenty more of this type of prognostication to come.
• A few rankings for Week 17:
• ESPN's Week 17 Rankings: Quarterbacks
• The Fantasy Shrink's Week 17 Fantasy Football Rankings
• As always, swinging by Fantasy Rundown will give you the rankings mother lode for Week 17

Get your Week 17 prep here!

Welcome to the post-Christmas chaos. We've had a busy 36 hours or so in our family - we celebrated Christmas with my family in DC and then hopped on a mostly empty plane back to Knoxville to spend the rest of the holiday with my husband's family. Sadly once we got to Knoxville our poor niece and sister-in-law got the pukes and our various plans for dinner, presents, etc got mostly postponed until tonight. So we're doing Christmas part 2 tonight. Fortunately we'll have an interesting Saints vs Falcons game to keep us entertained if the puking returns. Fingers crossed that they both feel better stat (what's sadder than a puking baby AND a puking mom?) and that the rest of us remain puke-free...there's lots of baby slobber going around so frankly we'll be lucky to get out of this week unscathed.

Anyway, I'm pretty certain I'm about to have a 2011 fantasy championship under my belt this year and hope you all are facing equally good news. But if your league carries into Week 17, have no fear, the links are here:

• First up though, some Week 16 game recaps and injury updates:
• Rotoworld's Au revoir, AP
• FootballOutsiders' Audibles at the Line: Week 17
• Razzball.com's Tony Romo Splits With Fantasy Owners
• Week 17 waiver wire links:
• FootballDocs' Waiver Wire Advice NFL Week 17
• Bruno Boys' Pick Them Up
• Bleacher Report's Which Week 16 Heroes Are Worth Picking Up
• FFManiaxs' Week 17 Waiver Wire
• If you lost the championship this week, don't worry, there's a place for you here, too. Roto Arcade's Runner-up rant: Five terrible ways that fantasy titles were lost is where you can turn for solace and a soft touch. 

By the way, many of you are participants in the gigantic FFLibrarian League and I will be crowning a winner tonight in that league. Stay tuned for a hearty pat on the back to that savvy owner. Also, another reminder that I'd love to have you join the FFLibrarian Playoff Challenge. Shoot me an e-mail if you'd like an invitation but that link should work just fine. So far there are 119 of us playing - looking forward to it!

Cultivating champions here at FFLibrarian

Today marks the start of Christmas celebrations in our house since one batch of family members is rotating out to see the rest of their family later today; so let the first wave of present opening begin! I've got our son down now for what I hope will be a long, long nap (thanks, 5:45 AM wake-up call) to be followed with an afternoon of wrapping paper and boxes to keep him entertained. Hope you're all enjoying the holiday season so far...now onto the remaining essential links for this championship week. And no worries for those of you who carry on to Week 17, I carry on, too, and will be here with plenty of links next week.

• Week 16 start/sit (should have the consensus list up by tonight, I hope):
• Fantasy Football Nerd's Where to Put 'Em
• Fifth Down's Week 16 in Fantasy Football: Favorable and Unfavorable Matchups
• Matthew Berry's Love/Hate (how can I not link to something that has a little extra love for fantasy-football-loving wives?)
• FakeTeams' Week 16 Start 'Em Sit 'Em
• RotoExperts' Hold em or Fold em 
• BrunoBoys' Start ems
• TOFantasySports' Play em or Lay em
• For rankings this week I'm just going to send you on over to FantasyRundown.com since they really have the bulk of the key rankings for Week 16 already fleshed out for you by position. Awesome, no?

Back on the FF scene

Greetings football friends - thanks for bearing with me this week. We headed up to the DC area on Tuesday to spend some pre-Christmas time with my family and things have been a bit busy. My 92-year-old grandma arrived yesterday and we have a complicated family plus a couple of babies here - so four generations of mostly good times have been keeping me busy. Definitely didn't mean to leave you all hanging in your time of playoffs need, so let's get right down to it with a few quick notes to start things off.

First up, don't forget that this is a funky week with a game tonight, most games on Saturday, and two more on Sunday and Monday nights. Love having the NFL on during so many days of the week but it certainly keeps you on your fantasy toes.

Next up, this is our final week to prove our fantasy worth in the FantasyPros.com weekly start/sit accuracy challenge. I'd love it if you took a few minutes to answer these 10 start/sit questions and represent for FFLibrarian.com.

Finally, remember to join the FFLibrarian Playoff Challenge again this year - looks like there are 75 of us playing already and just to let you know, I've got a prize ready to go for the winner of the challenge. Should be a good time.

And now on to the meat and potatoes:

• Start/sit suggestions:
• Roto Arcade's Flames: "Jingle Bell Rock," Bears RB could put trophy under tree and Lames: Ho, ho, no! Eli to play Grinch in battle for Big Apple
• CBSSports.com's Week 16 Start 'Em and Sit 'Em
• NFL.com's Ryan can lead fantasy owners to a league championship
• FFXtreme's Week 16: Start and Bench 2011
• FFToolbox.com's Week 16: Sit 'Em
• FantasySharks.com's Start/Bench Week 16
• Week 16 rankings and projections:
• ESPN's Week 16 Rankings
• The Fantasy Shrink's Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings
• Fleaflicker.com's Projections for Week 16 at flex spot
• Razzball.com's Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings
• AthlonSports' FF Rankings: Week 16
• FakeTeams' Week 16 Running Back Rankings
• FantasySharks.com has both your IDP Cheatsheet and Player Projections
• KFFL.com's RB - Week 16 has your PPR needs covered

I'll be back tomorrow (I hope!) with more start/sit and rankings advice. Enjoy tonight's game!

Misdialing in Week 15

One of our son's favorite toys is our home phone - we have a land line since I work from home and need it for conference calls, and it's a good thing we do since he loves that thing. Obsessed would be putting it mildly. But until this morning he's never actually called anyone other than our voicemail - he's dialed a ton of numbers, he's just never hit the crucial "talk" button to pull it all together. But this morning he managed to get it on speaker so that my husband and I both heard the recorded voice that suddenly came on: "Hello there, I can offer you a massage..." is roughly all we heard before we could get to the phone, and we just both stood there stunned and cracking up that oh yes, my friends, our son called some sort of phone sex line. What are the chances?

Probably about as small as the chances that the Packers would lose to the Chiefs and the Colts would finally tally a win - though of all the unlikely things I guess I should've seen Drew Brees and his 5 TD, 400+ yards performance coming. I mean seriously Brees? Knocked me out of the championship game for sure.

I'm still alive in another league (pending total chaos tonight in the MNF game) so I'm all about reviewing the waiver wire this week just in case there's still something out there. And of course I've got your Week 15 recaps, too, so read on:

• Week 15 game reviews:
• FootballOutsiders' Audibles at the Line: Week 15
• Roto Arcade's Sunday Scene, Week 15
• Razzball.com's Playoffs?! Yes, shut up!
• Week 16 waiver wire links:
• Bruno Boys' Pick Them Up
• 2MugsFF's Hot Garbage Waiver Wire Week 16
• FootballDocs' Waiver Wire Advice

Good luck to anyone whose Week 15 success rides on tonight's game!

Week 15 consensus picks

The season is winding down and with it, our consensus start/sit lists are starting to reach their expiration date...but don't worry, we've still got a few more weeks of consensus wisdom to read up on. As usual I went through this weeks start/sit list and tallied up below are the players with the most start or sit votes.

Good luck in the playoffs and hope you all enjoy watching the Broncos beat the Pats!

QB
Start: Matt Stafford, Tim Tebow, Rex Grossman
Sit: Alex Smith, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer (he also got several start votes though), Michael Vick

RB
Start: Chris Johnson, Beanie Wells, Cedric Benson, Felix Jones
Sit: Rashard Mendenhall, Ryan Mathews, DeAngelo Williams, C.J. Spiller

WR
Start: Demaryius Thomas, Jabar Gaffney, Santana Moss (gotta love a 2-Skins start list...)
Sit: Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree, Vincent Jackson

TE
Start: Owen Daniels, Jake Ballard, Jermichael Finley, Anthony Fasano
Sit: Jermaine Gresham, Heath Miller, Dustin Keller, Vernon Davis

DST
Start: Lions, Bengals, Cardinals
Sit: Broncos, Chargers

Kicker
Start: John Kasay, Stephen Gostkowski
Sit: Billy Cundiff

Join the 2012 FFLibrarian Playoff Challenge!

It's a big week for those still in the 2011 FF season and most of this post will cater to you all, don't worry, but I know many FF players have seen an end to their season already. Perhaps you're still lurking around the site even though you're out of the playoffs? Glad to have you and keep in mind that I'll be posting throughout the offseason with advice and thoughts for the 2012 season so I hope you'll stick around. But that's jumping way ahead...so I'll just jump a little ahead instead to the NFL playoffs, which are only a few weeks away. I'm running the FFLibrarian Playoff Challenge through NFL.com again this year and I hope you'll join me (if that link doesn't work for you, e-mail me and I'll send you an invitation). I'm working on a prize for the challenge winner, too, if that sweetens the deal at all.

But now back to Week 15 prep. Have at it:

• Week 15 start/sit links:
• NFL.com's CJ2K can lead you to fantasy championships
• The Hazean's Start & Sit, Week 15: Fantasy Playoff Advice
• Kind of a big sit list really (for the duration of the playoffs) - FantasyPros.com's Who will disappoint in Week 15?
• Fantasy Football Nerd's Week 15 Where to Put 'Em
• ProFootballWeekly.com's Start or Sit: Week 15 (video starts up right away)
• TheFootballGirl's Startability Index Week 15
• Week 15 rankings:
• The Fantasy Douche's Week 15 RB Rankings
• FakeTeams' Week 15 Wide Receiver Rankings
• WalterFootball.com's Week 15 Fantasy Football Rankings