Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Monitoring mocks and more

I hope you all enjoyed the long weekend and I'm guessing many of you are deep into the early summer heat wave we've got going on here over much of the eastern half of the country. And while summer is most certainly here in the weather department, the summer fantasy football content is not. The Washington Post has an interesting summary of how the FF industry is affected by the lockout - Fantasy football: Another lockout casualty?

Onto the rest of today's reads, I've got a smattering of articles that were posted over the weekend:

  • As I'm sure I point out far too often, now is the time to enjoy articles from awesome sites like Footballguys.com whose paywall goes up later in the summer. So scope out their 2011 Staff Mock Draft, which includes extensive analysis on each of the picks through the 4th round (out of 22 rounds).
  • Another mock to monitor comes from Rotoworld - this one is an in-progress dynasty league draft.
  • Looking for a quick top 10 QB list? Turn to Fantasy Alarm's Early Quarterback Rankings though I honestly can't believe Matt Ryan is listed at #10. Really? Am I alone in my Matt Ryan lovefest this year?
  • It appears that I might be since 4for4.com's ADP (pulled from several different sites they monitor) also lists Ryan as the 10th QB here (links to other positions as well). Personally I'd rather have Ryan over Romo, Schaub and Roethlisberger. Agree or disagree? Note that the 4for4.com ADP link above offers ADPs for both 10-team and 12-team leagues - nice touch.
  • If auction leagues are more your speed, turn to ProFootballFocus.com's 2011 IDP Auction Values for those of you who play with individual defenders. 
  • Finally, the Football Goat takes a quick look at some of the players that will go with the top picks in this year's drafts in Who Should Be The #1 Fantasy Football Pick in 2011? If you haven't thought about this question at all yet, the Goat will likely get the FF juices flowing and get the ol' wheels in your brain turning.

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Pre-holiday weekend linkage

It has taken most of the month of May, but we have finally agreed to a price on our new home in Knoxville and we're all set to close in 6 weeks or so. Exciting times here in the FFLibrarian household and now I'm bracing myself for our third move in as many years. So between the big move this summer and the 2011 season (hopefully) gearing up, there's lots going on in my world. But I've also got plans to bring you all updated results on my aggregate accuracy analysis with the 2010 results incorporated at some point during the month of June - read up on last year's multi-year accuracy results here.

But for now, let's get to the latest FF analysis:

  • Earlier this week we looked at several mock drafts and Roto Experts' Pink Zone Coverage takes a look at some mock results with a focus on the top 10, and then a handful of players that aren't worth their current ADP (average draft position) due to the risk they bring along.
  • Speaking of ADP analysis, FantasyFootball.com will make many an IDPer happy with their IDP Analysis: IDP ADP. Read up on some solid LB, DL, and DB bargains.
  • FFToolbox.com keeps rolling with their position twosome suggestions, this time with a look at some Running Back By Committee ideas in case you miss out on a top 10 RB and need a nice one-two punch that you can rotate through all season long. More love for Daniel Thomas here than I was expecting.
  • Eli Manning certainly isn't the kind of QB that fantasy owners aim to acquire. Perhaps he should be? Read why The Fantasy Shrink is seeing a lot of upside for Eli this year in The always underrated Eli Manning.
  • Rotoworld's 4th and final article in their 2011 Offseason Market Analysis is up for your review - check out their thoughts on the Tight End Market. Find links to the other offensive skill positions at the top of the article.
Hope you all have a wonderful Memorial Day weekend!

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

May mocks and more

There's a season for mock drafts, my friends, and this is it. I'm seeing a definite decrease in mock coverage, which is no doubt related to our wacky start to the year (see, I'm staying positive: there will  be a 2011 season!), but some of my favorite sites are still getting mocky:

  • FFToolbox.com is part of a mock that's sporting a solid field of franchises - Experts Mock Draft Results. Always love mocks that include a line or two of analysis for each pick. Right now they're in the 2nd round but I know this article will be updated as they move along in the draft.
  • Another mock destination is Fantasy Football Experts Mock Draft - again, most picks include a little analysis. You can also see Smitty's Take on FantasyFootballXtreme.com. Note that both of these mocks I'm linking to today are for PPR leagues. I'm guessing it's going to be increasingly difficult to find a non-PPR mock this year.
  • The offseason is a prime time to get your hands dirty with stats and see what happens once you crunch some numbers. These sites have put worth some interesting articles with historical stats:
    • ProFootballFocus.com's Drop Percentage looks at receivers with the highest and lowest percentage of drops for 2010 as well as the 2008-2010 time span. I think I find the bottom dwellers on this list the most interesting item...there are definitely several guys on this 2010 bottom list (Williams, for example) that have so much potential if they can just lock it in.
    • Big Lead Sports' Good Offensive Tackles Are Worth As Much As A Starting Quarterback comes to the conclusion that a tackle's value isn't so much in the sack rate as the yards per attempt. Read on to get the full details.
    • The Fantasy Shrink took some of this year's top RBs' combine performances and compared them to RBs of the past 6 years who had similar combine results - Combine Comparisons: RBs. Good food for thought - might just be one dimension of determining how a player will evolve (as noted by the author) but it's certainly interesting.
  • If you'd rather skip out on a top QB (of which FFToolbox.com believes there are 8 this year) and play the QB roulette instead, definitely take a look at their Quarterback by Committee chart for suggestions on pairings. Good stuff.
  • Finally, let's wrap it up with one of my favorite features - Fantasy Football Trader's roundtable discussions with other FF gurus. This week's question? LeGarrette Blount vs Shonn Greene.

Thursday, May 19, 2011

Cloudy with a chance of football

The clouds and rain just won't stop here in NYC - it's been going on since Monday and frankly this is a great reminder of one reason why I loved living in Colorado so much. Has Boulder ever even seen 4 days in a row of rain? Unlikely. But the silver lining is that the fog and clouds make it a smidge darker in the morning, meaning our young tot sleeps in just a bit longer. I'll take that trade off. For now. Much more of this dreariness and we'll be hopping the first flight to a sunny paradise.

Speaking of paradise, let's talk football:

Thursday, May 12, 2011

Handcuffs, value picks, and other early fantasy analysis

Our extended family is growing - my big sis is having a baby in July, so we're headed down to our hometown in the DC area this weekend to celebrate with a baby shower. Going down to DC used to be a cinch - hop on the cheap but fancy-ish bus and $20 and 4.5 hours later, you're there. But now that we've got our own wee one, that bus isn't exactly an option since every other bus rider would probably want to throw us and our active baby off the bus after approximately 1 hour max. Plus, the quantity of crap that we travel with has grown exponentially...so we're taking the train instead. Granted, most everyone in our train car will probably grow weary of us quite quickly, too, but at least it's a faster ride. Apologies in advance if you're on our train this weekend. Anyway, I'll be quiet on the blog front until next week, so I hope you all have great weekends. Let's get on over to today's links:

  • Footballguys.com zeroes in on this year's rookies with a top 50 dynasty ranking in 2011 Dynasty Draft List - though it's important to note that this goes beyond a straight-up ranking - each player gets a little write-up. Nice touch.
  • If you've got back-ups/handcuffs on your mind, take a look at a multi-part series that ProFootballFocus.com is pulling together that they amusingly call the Tamme index. Read up on the Tight End Handcuff Rankings and the Wide Receiver Tamme Index.
  • What's happening to the stud RB? Does this year's record-late pick for the first RB of the draft say something about the state of the RB workhorse in the NFL today? See what SBNation says in Is the 'stud back' dying? (link courtesy of Football Outsiders, a great spot for links to in-depth reads and news bits)
  • Using the current ADP (average draft position), Razzball.com looks at great value players for the 2011 season - You down with ADP? Yeah you know me. Word of warning, great value players at this time of year often get a ton of hype as the summer goes on and become overvalued. Not saying that will happen with all these guys, just something to keep in mind. And I must have a fantasy crush on all Falcons or something, but I'm totally on board with the Matt Ryan value pick here.

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

May fantasy musings

After a little bit of bargaining and perhaps some disgruntled parties on both sides, my husband and I had our offer on a home in Knoxville accepted over the weekend. Sounds a bit like the NFL world these days...except for the fact that the 2011 season is still very much in limbo. Anyway, the house is 102 years old so fingers crossed that the inspection goes well...

So clearly lots of change coming to the FFLibrarian household this summer, but one thing we can all count on is the steady increase in fantasy analysis as we make our way through May.

  • First up, for those of you that are interested in testing the auction league waters, KFFL.com has a fairly thorough article with some pros and cons and the basics behind auctions in Introduction to fantasy football auction leagues.
  • Assuming that the season comes together here, Rotoworld's The 2001 Quarterback Market showcases QBs that likely to see some movement in free agency, trades, or just plain ol' release-ville. Good, worthwhile read.
  • ProFootballFocus.com's Going Deep looks at what 2010's QBs did in the land of deep passes (20+ yards). Not sure you're going to walk away with any great fantasy insights but I'm always interested in a little number crunching and thought you might agree.
  • The Fantasy Shrink (who, by the way, is a new site spearheaded by John Paulsen, the impressively accurate expert who dominated FantasyPros' weekly accuracy analysis for the 2010 season) offers up his first rankings of the season - take a look at his initial 2011 RB Rankings and 2011 WR Rankings. Another item of note from the Shrink is a PPR SOS (strength of schedule) - good stuff.
  • I enjoy a good debate over the fantasy merits of two players - read up on NoOffseason.com's Loaded Keeper Question that compares Arian Foster to Chris Johnson.
  • Finally, I know many of you in dynasty leagues are gearing up for drafts already so I've tried to include plenty of rookie linkage lately - here's another one from Dynasty League Football that follows an in progress 2011 Rookie Draft.

Thursday, May 05, 2011

Playing the waiting game

Yesterday afternoon we put an offer in on a house in Knoxville, Tennessee, which is soon to be our new home. The house is roughly 5 times the size of our current apartment in Brooklyn; I have no clue what we will do with all that space other than purchase walkie talkies so we can communicate between different rooms. Wait, are walkie talkies totally passe now? Possible, definitely possible.

So while I sit here checking my e-mail and phone incessantly, I thought, well now is a great time to get a post up...let's get to it.

  • FFToday is hot off a mock draft with Mocking in May, which highlights one of the major draft trends I think we're going to see in 2011 - a QB run in rounds 1-3. 
  • The Huddle is another site that opens up their content for free this time of year and there are two solid articles on rookies that are worth checking out there:
    • A look at Top IDP Rookie Linebackers - thoughts on who will have an instant impact, who needs to simmer for awhile, and then others keeping an eye on down the road.
    • Or scope out The Top 10 Fantasy Rookies Worth Watching - not sure I agree with this ranking exactly but if you ask me, there's plenty of wiggle room in rankings right now so definitely stay tuned as things develop.
  • More rookie thoughts from Razzball.com's Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft.
  • If you're in the market for a more in-depth look at a few players, check out these links:
    • FantasyGuru's John Hansen tells us why he won't be taking Michael Vick as the top QB off the boards this year in Michael Vick should not be drafted as a #1 QB- I found his comment that it's all about avoiding the downside this year rather interesting. It can be easy to forget that each year has its own nuances and a strategy that worked for you last year might not be quite so effective this go around.
    • On the flip side, read up on reasons that Ryan Fitzpatrick could be a great value pick with Fantasy Shrink's Falling in love with Ryan Fitzpatrick all over again.
    • FFToolbox.com zeroes in on some comments that the Browns will try to manage Peyton Hillis' touches. Will the Hardesty hype come back at all this year or are we looking at another RBBC beast? Since I'm big on the Browns o-line, I'm paying close attention to how this all falls into place.
  • Mike Tanier from FootballOutsiders.com has a lovefest for the NFC South in Forget Cam - NFC South just got really good. I'm feeling pretty high on the Falcons this year - and by default, Julio Jones. What do you guys think, is that warranted? And what's the impact on Roddy White's value, particularly in PPR leagues?

Tuesday, May 03, 2011

2011 draft recap & fantasy prep

Greetings long-lost fantasy football friends. You've been very patient with me this spring as I've been essentially missing in fantasy action here for the past few months. Lots of stuff going on here in FFLibrarian land between our increasingly mobile and adorable 7-month-old, our impending move to Tennessee (not leaving NYC until July though!) and all the house hunting and moving plans that come with it, and then a slew of travel this spring that have all kept me from posting as much as I would have liked. So thanks for sticking around and rest assured that I will be back to my normal posting schedule as the season (fingers crossed!) begins to unfold.

We've got lots of post-draft material out there to look at, so let's try and make sense of the fantasy analysis madness out there:

  • If you just want the results of the draft straight up, cruise on over to the Bruno Boys for their NFL Draft 2011: Round by Round Draft Tracker
  • Another place to swing by for some general draft thoughts is CBSSports.com's Top 10 surprises through first three rounds.
  • But for some analysis of all that went down last weekend, take a look at some of these articles:
    • RotoExperts.com's Fantasy Football: Hot Freaks which has a team-by-team approach to assessing how the draft went from a fantasy perspective.
    • Rotoworld does a great job as usual with their Draft Grades articles - NFC and AFC. They list each team's picks and where they went wrong/right. Note the caveat here though not to take this analysis (or any draft analysis) too seriously. But let's be honest, if you're here on a fantasy football site at this time of year, you're wise beyond your years and you already know that!
    • Or for even further draft assessment, scope out KFFL.com's 2011 NFL Draft: Winners, losers and those on the fence.
  • Meanwhile if you're an IDPer, you'll be interested in Kilroys Krystal Ball's look at how the draft went from an IDP (individual defensive player) perspective - 2011 IDP Draft Review: Part One.
    • Now that we know where the 2011 rookies will be playing, let the rookie analysis begin:
    • For some non-draft related articles, try one of the following:
      • FootballGuys.com has their Ultimate Strength of Schedule article up by position (this links to QBs) with a season-long look, a week-by-week look, and a focus on the playoffs. There is of course MUCH more to come on this front, but this is a great start...plus I love linking to FootballGuys.com this time of year as their material is still free.
      • Another spot to go is the always interesting roundtable discussion posted by Fantasy Football Trader. The question this time around to be answered by a bevy of fantasy smarties? Dez Bryant vs Kenny Britt.
      • FantasyFootballXtreme.com's 2011 Fantasy Football Stock Market Watch that notes which players FFXtreme believes are overvalued, undervalued, or spot on based on their current ADP (average draft position).