Wednesday, October 05, 2016

Streaming Defenses - Week 5

This morning was Walk to School Day for my Kindergartener. So I dutifully hustled him out the door at 6:45 AM to make it to the meeting spot on time. As soon as my son walks out the door, he declares that it must-be-1-degree-outside-it's-so-cold-and-where-is-the-snow. This is not the case at all, it's 63 degrees. So I'm amused and raising a true southerner it seems. Anyway, in getting out the door so quickly and just the two of us, we incurred the wrath of our 3-year-old, who my husband was holding in a full-body embrace to keep him from sprinting out the door after our car since he so desperately wanted to go, too. Sorry neighbors. He flailed about for awhile (and apparently did indeed manage to break free and chase us in the end) and was only calmed by the promise of a trip to the donut store when I got back home, which meant my husband and I were ridiculously late to work today. So it's been that kind of morning - just rushed and full of negotiations and the path of least resistance. I'm feeling off my game and I opened my e-mail to realize I completely just forgot to post Bob's streaming defense article last night. My apologies. So here he is in all his glory - enjoy!


Back to the streaming grind this week and we have some interesting matchups but first my mea culpa. I was negligent last week on missing the Bengals. I had a reader ask me about it prior to the waivers, and when I looked again, I just blew it. Call it my prejudice against Thursday Night matchups, but I simply missed the data. I did recommend CIN to the reader but did not update my article. So in the future if this happens again, you can bet I’ll update my article. (I feel better now.)

Now let’s look at the results from last week. Even though I missed CIN we still had a pretty good week on the streams. Note that the highly owned only managed a one point advantage this week. As I have said before, the highly owned will perform about the same as recommended streams as the season goes along. And this week was proof of that. Called the KC demise but was shocked how bad they were. They just gave up. Projected and actual of the highly owned were pretty close otherwise. BAL fell short, as the Raiders are starting to look like a contender. If their Def picks up, they will have something special going forward.
Week 4 Highly Owned
Team
Opp
Proj Pts
% Owned
Actual
DEN
@TB
16
100%
19
CAR
@ATL
9
100%
11
SEA
@NYJ
12
100%
14
ARI
LAR
12
99%
16
HOU
TEN
14
96%
13
NE
BUF
10
90%
5
MIN
NYG
12
85%
9
KC
@PIT
8
81%
2
Average



11.125
Streams for Week 4
WAS
CLE
10
7%
10
LAR
@ARI
10
78%
16
SD
NO
10
1%
9
BAL
OAK
8
23%
5
Average



10

Now on to this week. The highly owned look to do well with the exception of HOU. The recommended streams are interesting this week, with the Eagles only owned in 52% leagues, and some new targets. Also pay attention to my warnings on CIN and OAK.

Week 5 Highly Owned
Team
Opp
Owned
Proj Pts
Comments
DEN
ATL
100%
12
ATL has been stingy giving up Def pts so far this year, but have faced three lowly Defs. Last week they gave up 11 pts to CAR, a better functioning Def than prior weeks. This week watch what happens to a top Def. DEN is a must start.
ARI
@SF
99%
12
While SF is no longer a target, ARI will be head hunting being down in the standings. This is ARI's comeback on defense. (Even though it's a Thurs night game.) Start them with confidence.
CAR
TB
99%
14
TB is not good against good defenses. CAR is a good defense in spite of their record. This will be a big day for CAR on Def, start them with confidence.
MIN
HOU
95%
14
Another day at the office for MIN, and another great week for their Def. Start with confidence.
NEP
@CLE
94%
13
NE gets the number one target and with a renewed energy with Brady returning, this one will get ugly. Expect big points out of the NE Def.
HOU
@MIN
92%
8
Tough week for HOU as MIN has played great ball control, and Bradford is experienced enough to avoid sacks and ints. You have to start HOU but temper your expectations.
Streams for Week 5
PHI
@DET
52%
14
The Eagles return after a bye and will continue their Def dominance against a team that hasn't met a good defense yet. This is the number 1 stream this week due to low ownership.
BUF
@LAR
44%
12
The Rams are a decent target and the Bills are a good defense. Expect a bump from BUF after a good win last week, and make them your number 2 stream.
PIT
NYJ
56%
10
Has the PIT defense been resurrected? It will look like it after this week. Jets have given up big points to Defs last two weeks and it looks like that may continue. This is a good stream probably number 3.
MIA
TEN
12%
9
Even though MIA's defense has been terrible, TEN has been a reliable target. Number 4 stream this week just because TEN is so generous to Defs.
CIN
@DAL
71%
6.66
Some will recommend CIN this week, but beware. DAL has been very stingy giving up Def pts, but have not met a good defense yet. So the jury is out on this one. CIN had a good week last week against a good target; will they be able to upset DAL? Be vewy, vewy careful hunting Pwescott. (Elmer Fudd hunting wabbits.)
OAK
SD
47%
7.5
Oakland has been mentioned as a good stream this week, and maybe so. But I'm not buying it. SD has given up points just recently due to injuries, but OAK is averaging a measly 5.3 pts per outing. Until OAK shows me more on Def I can't recommend them.

That’s the way I see it this week. And remember, I’m not perfect. If you see an opportunity I missed don’t hesitate to include some comments, so I can respond and possibly update my results.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks as always. What are your thoughts on the Rams getting Buffalo this week?

Anonymous said...

yes yes. I am in between rams and miami d. expert consensus has miami slightly above la d. but in same tier.

Sean McPhisto said...

Thanx for the questions. I had to take the Rams on one of my leagues due to lack of teams available. The only reason I like Mia this week is due to Ten giving up so many points to Defs. They average giving up 14.5 pts per game! But I'm not sold on the Mia defense this year. The Rams are a better defense, but Buf has only given up 7 points a game, with 11 points to 2 top defenses. Rams are on the cusp of being a top 10 def. So if I had to choose between them, I'd take the Rams.