Thursday, May 05, 2016

It's been awhile...

Hellllllooooo! It has been nearly 6 months since I last posted. Let's get that out of the way since I know that is a new record. I hope this finds you all well and relishing the approaching football season. All is just fine in my world with a 5.5 year old that is obsessed with playing and watching any and every sport (currently completely into baseball), and a 2.5 year old that is tyrannical and also somehow completely adorable, as most are.

Okay, cold hard truth time, my friends: my heart hasn't been in this blog for awhile now. Surprised? Didn't think so. But the thing is, I can't quite seem to completely walk away and call it done. I have loved this blog, it has brought me so much enjoyment, made enough money to cover an extensive coffee habit, and I've met some incredible people. And learned a hell of a lot about fantasy football along the way.

So here we are at the precipice of another fantasy football season and I feel the itch to blog again - but as you have probably figured out, my energy and enthusiasm for it seems to wane as the season continues. I don't want to let you all down mid-season so here's what I need to know from you - even if I just post once a week, is that still valuable for you all? Should I keep this train going? Or call it quits?

Mull that over while you read some post-NFL draft links and previews of the season:

Friday, November 20, 2015

2015 Streaming Defenses: Week 11

Hello hello from a busy week in Knoxville. My mom is in town visiting and we're preparing for the upcoming holidays (bets on whether or not either of my boys will actually eat anything on the Thanksgiving table? Outlook is grim) and I've gotten a bit behind here on the blog. I've got Bob's streaming defense thoughts for you now (sorry for the delay!) and will be back later tonight or tomorrow with some start/sit and rankings links.


What a difference a week can make. Last week you couldn’t buy a defense, this week the points were sky high. Only problem was, the points were being scored from unexpected sources. The highly owned and recommended only averaged 8 points, while the 3 recommended streamers averaged 12. SEA came through in spite of tempered expectations and BUF came through in spades when we expected a low ceiling. So it was the week of the streamers, and if you started PIT, CIN or NYJ, good for you. That’s 2 weeks in a row now that the streamers have outperformed the highly owned Defs.

So what does this week look like? Here are some links you can use to help you sift through week 11. As usual, my analysis, may or may not align with the pros. 


Here are the ownership and projections for Defs this week of the ‘highly owned’ defenses. Highly owned being better than 80% this week. The highly owned are slated to do well this week, so start ‘em if you got ‘em.
Highly Owned
Team
OPP
Yahoo Pts
Owned
Comments
STL
@Bal
8.7
97%
Rams are 4th best Def, the Ravens aren't all that generous, but tend to give up points to good Defs, and STL is good on the road, start them with confidence.
DEN
@CHI
9.2
97%
Chi is 7th most generous Off and Den is #1, another juicy matchup. With Osweiler at the helm expect DEN to be on the field a lot and wreaking havoc, some additional upside
SEA
SF
9.49
97%
#3 Def against 5th most generous Off, yeah gimme some of that, 1st best start of the week.
NE
BUF
9.47
94%
This one may be a trap, the Jets had 9 points off of BUF last week, and they are a better defense, I say start the Pats, but temper expectations.
ARI
CIN
5.8
93%
This is another one that may be a trap. CIN is the 3rd least generous OFF, and the Cards are 2nd best Def, I would start but temper expectations.
CAR
WAS
8.37
92%
Another mismatch, #6 Def against 14th most generous OFF, CAR at home is a formula for big points.
PHI
TB
9.1
89%
PHI is 5th best Def against 3rd most generous OFF, this is the 3rd best start of the week, keep 'em in your lineup.
GB
@MIN
7.86
86%
Until the Pack gets back to dominating on Def, I would steer clear of this one. MIN plays great ball control with the running game, look elsewhere.

With only 7 recommended starts of the highly owned, there isn’t much to choose from for this week’s streams, but I like TEN and KC, with 2 more with high upside. Then I throw in a couple of courageous picks if you have no other options.
Week 9 Best Streams
Team
OPP
Yahoo Pts
Owned
Comments
TEN
@JAC
7.3
8%
TEN isn't especially good on Def, but JAC is just too juicy. TEN's starting CBs are a concern here. Best stream of the week if TEN's CBs start, otherwise it's a mediocre start.
KC
@SD
6.26
40%
I hope you've been noticing the trend on KC, averaging 15 points in last 5 starts. SD isn't that generous but it doesn't matter, KC still gets its points, 2nd best stream.
JAC
TEN
6.76
2%
This is your sneaky start of the week, TEN is the most generous of all Offs, and JAC can play some DEF especially at home. Just never know which JAC Def shows up, sneaky start with upside.
NYJ
@HOU
7.58
71%
This is another sneaky start, on paper it doesn't look great, but Revis gets Hopkins, which appears to be Hoyer's only reliable target. Jets will stop the run as usual and force long down situations and sacks. Good stream with upside.
ATL
IND
6.64
26%
With ATL Off sputtering of late, expect ATL Def to be on the field a bit, which will give them some opportunities against a fill in, but safe QB. ATL has been improving since week 4, so if you don't have any other options, this is a start with some upside.
MIA
DAL
6.63
28%
DAL just can't operate without Romo, so they're still a good target. MIA's Def has struggled as of late, but with Cassel, there's good upside.

The streams are listed in order I think they will score, and we keep targeting QBs that are struggling. Good luck on a tough week for Defs.

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Week 11 Waiver Wire Goodness

Some weeks you really don't know why the fantasy gods smiled down on you, and that was the position I found myself in this weekend. The dude who has basically left his team alone to slowly smolder was of course part of my Week 10 success, so I can't take a ton of credit here. Trust me, the waiver wire is still my friend. So let's read on for waiver advice:

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Week 10 Starts and Sits, Rankings, and More

So my son loves to troll me about my favorite football teams. Basically he pulls for whichever team my favorite team is playing against....unless it's a total blowout and obvious that my team is going to win; he likes a winner. Then he hops on the family bandwagon and pulls for the Broncos or Northwestern. But the vast majority of times, he's pulling against my teams. Even when it actually has nothing to do with football. For example, this morning as he was eating his breakfast, he divided it in half and said, "mommy, this half is Northwestern and this half is Tennessee - who do you think I'll finish first?" I play along and pretend like there's a chance in hell that Northwestern might "win" the breakfast competition and he laughs maniacally and gobbles down the Tennessee half. What just happened? It's amazingly effective at getting to me; how does a 5-year-old know how to do this?? The problem is, part of me finds it endearing and hey, he needs to eat his breakfast so...but still. STILL. My darling little troll.

Anyway, here's hoping your guys are winning everywhere and to help you out with that, let's get to this week's content:

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

2015 Streaming Defenses: Week 10

Bob is back with his defensive brilliance - read and enjoy!
 

As advertised, Week 9 was going to be a challenge to Defs and that proved to be true. Not only were we missing some strident Defs, the ones that were left didn’t have many great matchups. The result was the lowest average Def points for the year. Average for the year is now at 9.45, last week was 7.5! Average total Def points per week is 278, last week the total was 195. So if you were disappointed last week, you weren’t alone. 

The top two recommended only got 8 points apiece, STL and DEN. The 3 highly owned that had tempered expectations did no better, with GB posted its second egg in a row. We have to wonder what’s happening in GB on both sides of the ball. 

The shining stars however belonged to some of the streams. The recommended streams averaged 12.2 points, with both NY teams posting double digits. ATL had the least points at 8 which equaled the two highly owned recommended. The 2 desperate picks turned out as truly desperate, with only 2 and 5 points garnered. So it was definitely a good week for streams.

So what does this week look like? Here are some links you can use to help you sift through week 10. As usual, my analysis, may or may not align with the pros: 
Here are the ownership and projections for Defs this week of the ‘highly owned’ defenses. Highly owned being better than 80% this week. The highly owned are slated to do well this week, so start ‘em if you got ‘em.
Highly Owned
Team
OPP
Yahoo Pts
Owned
Comments
STL
CHI
9.36
97%
The Rams are still the 3rd best defense leading in INTs and Sacks, and the Bears are the 5 most generous. Bears have given up 3 TDs to special teams as well. With STL at home this is the 2nd best start of the week.
DEN
KC
9.01
97%
The Broncos continue to terrorize Offs, even stingy ones. KC is a very conservative Off, so this is going to be another one of those challenges, but the Chiefs are giving up some sacks. Look for another good week from the #1 Def. 4th best start.
NE
@NYG
7.08
96%
The Pats can be hot and cold. The Giants just don't make many mistakes, and the Pats make hay against good matchups. This is not one, start them but temper your expectations.
SEA
ARI
6.33
95%
This is not last year's SEA. Did you know they only have 3 picks this year? And Palmer is a veteran. I don't like this matchup, but since SEA is at home, I'll give the 12th man the benefit of the doubt. Start but temper expectations, with some down side if ARI gets up early.
PHI
MIA
9.85
87%
OK I'm a believer. The Eagles have really picked up their defense lately, averaging almost 15 points in their last 4 outings. MIA can be had and with PHI at home and looking for the Division win, this is the 5th best start.
ARI
@SEA
8.56
87%
SEA isn't that great a target but they have their issues on the OFF line. ARI is 5th against the run and SEA has some running issues as well. Look for a big day for the ARI Def holding SEA to less than 20 pts.
CAR
@TEN
9.83
85%
#1 target, CAR 4th in sacks, TEN 2nd most sacks, #1 matchup, very safe start
GB
DET
8.81
84%
GB has been failing on DEF lately, but this week it's DET. DET is in shambles with talk of trading Stafford and even Megatron, wow. DET is giving up the most INTs in the league, and playing in the frozen tundra, start GB with confidence.
BUF
@NYJ
6.72
81%
Bills do well against prime targets. The Jets are not one of them. Conservative with ball control, the Jets just are not a good target. I would look elsewhere

With 8 recommended starts of the highly owned, there isn’t much to choose from for this week’s streams, so I’m only giving you 3 locks to stream, with a desperate one for those without any other options.
Week 9 Best Streams
PIT
CLE
8.01
42%
CLE is the 3rd most generous DEF this year no matter which QB starts. PIT at home makes this the 3rd best start of the week. Start the improving PIT Def with confidence.
NYJ
BUF
7.29
73%
I have this as the 9th best start. The Jets are definitely better at home than abroad. I like the Jets keeping their wild card spot this week.
CIN
HOU
7.74
72%
The Bengals Def is quietly averaging 10 points a game. Against a bad offense at home, I like CIN to continue with double digit Def pts.
BAL
JAC
7.14
33%
JAC is averaging giving up over 12 points a game is the last 4 outings. BAL is a terrible DEF, but JAC is just too generous. If you're desperate, start BAL but temper expectations.

The streams are listed in order I think they will score, in spite of the matchups. That’s the best I can do for you this week with only 3 recommended streams, but most of you should have the highly owned and recommended this week, so party on!