Friday, December 19, 2014

Start/sit and sleeper advice for Week 16

Apologies for the posting delay here - it has been a long week in the FFLibrarian household. Three out of four of us are on antibiotics and yet we miraculously made it through unscathed during our flight up to DC for some pre-Christmas celebrations with my family. I was sure there would be tales of ear infection pain horror coupled with copious use of the barf bags. But we made it without incident and the only side effect seems to be my inability to post here on time. Here's Jen last start/sit post for the season - enjoy! And don't worry, this awesome crew of writers and I will be around here and there this offseason. For starters, I'll likely run another playoffs fantasy group as I've done in the past, so stay tuned for news on that in the next few weeks, not to mention some daily fantasy advice coming your way soon.

Ahhh! I hope you are here right now because you are Super Bowl bound! If you’re just here to read my ramblings then, well, that is much appreciated also. So a quick recap on my personal fantasy league. The big matchup went just as planned, i.e. I WON! But it was by a hair. My man Dez Bryant’s 3TD/35PPR points put me in a comfortable lead….but then came Drew Brees, my opponent’s QB, who was just 1 more touchdown away from making me all kinds of sad. Bottom line: I won by 6 points, and face my sister in the Super Bowl this week. Should be a good time had for all (we already agreed to split the winnings instead of take 1st & 2nd place prizes). The girls ruled in our league this year :)!

So, here’s our injury recap from week 15:
Frank Gore/Carlos Hyde (RB, SF): Both running backs from the 49ers were injured during the game and unable to return. Gore suffered a concussion, and Hyde an ankle injury. It looks like Gore is on track to play Saturday, but Hyde himself said he would need a “miracle” to play this week. Time for a Bruce Miller/Alfonso Smith combo? I’d lean more towards Frank Gore being able to go, but look for the other two on the depth chart to contribute against an in-state rival Charger team.
Keenan Allen (WR, SD): Allen broke his collarbone, and has already been ruled out for this week’s action. This is a bummer for fantasy owners who were given some hope after the Baltimore game, but it could be a bit of a relief for those who have been going crazy the last few weeks trying to figure out whether they should start or sit him.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, TEX): Fitzmagic didn’t just get injured...he broke his leg! Yikes! Tom Savage came in to relieve him, but it looks like the Texans are going back to an old friend of theirs, signing Case Keenum this week. With DeAndre Hopkins looking doubtful, you will have to hope that there is some lingering chemistry between Keenum and Andre Johnson...or that Arian Foster will run for 150 yards and 2 scores, which is totally doable for him.
T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND): Hilton has not done much this week practice-wise, but that’s likely just to rest his hammy (MRI results were negative). Hilton owners would feel more comfortable if he can get a practice in tomorrow. He has a juicy matchup in Dallas this weekend, where Brandon Carr will likely be covering him. Carr on the other hand is on his way to becoming the worst cover corner in the league at the moment.

Ok, need I remind you that it is WEEK 16!!! This is it!! I’m going to give you the links I love and trust the most.

Your final rankings for the fantasy season:
TMR Top 200 Week 16: It’s only right that we include Matthew Berry’s rankings for the last week, he’s the GOAT, isn’t he?
Rotoworld.com's Week 16 Rankings: Patrick Daugherty gives you more than rankings, he is kind enough to provide thorough analysis.
Jamey Eisenberg & Dave Richard's Week 16 Rankings: I’m going to miss these guys so much during my lunch hour when I watch Fantasy Football Today. Jamey’s got you covered for standard, Dave for PPR.
Fantasypros.com's Week 16 Rankings: Another great resource for standard and PPR leagues. They do you the favor of ranking based off the consensus of 102 experts.

Your final start/sit rankings for the fantasy season:
Matthew Berry's Love/Hate Week 16: Love/Hate, start/sit, same thing. The GOAT has you covered, and also shares some of the BEST last place humiliation fantasy stories.
Jamey Eisenberg's Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 16: If you prefer listening to reading, a video starring him and Dave loads when you open. But be sure to read through for tidbits and analysis. He is also an honest guy, providing his “full disclosure from week 15”.
Michael Fabiano's Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 16: Fabs throws in his Start of the Week at each position. Don’t miss him weekdays on Fantasy Football Live on the NFL Network.
Adam Pfeifer's Thumbs Up, Thumbs Down Week 16: In addition to Adam being a stud when it comes to this, he will also answer your start/sit questions on twitter!
Brian Dezelske's Week 16 Fantasy Starts and Sits: Not only is Brian on point, but I know him from these fantasy circles, he’s a good guy! Check out his suggestions for this week.

I’m slightly (very) embarrassed by last week’s sleepers…
Chris Johnson (RB, NYJ): This was more of a desperation call, because I was sure even I could run for at least 80 yards and a score on the awful Titans defense. I was even more sure that Rex Ryan was going to give him a shot at the goal line against his former team, but that went to Chris Ivory. CJ?K, how about CJnoK.
Preston Parker (WR, NYG): I figured with all the attention to that athletic freak of nature Beckham that Parker would beat his week 15 stat line of 5/60. But he caught one ball, so thumbs down to me on this call!
Eric Ebron (TE, DET): The injury to my future husband Joe Fauria presented Ebron with an opportunity I thought he would seize. The rookie has the talent, and I’m going to blame Matthew Stafford for this one, who only completed 17 passes, his fewest completions on the season.
Jacoby Jones (WR, BAL): You won’t believe me, and you shouldn’t, but I originally had Marlon Brown here. I thought to myself, “Nah, come on, go a little deeper sleeper on this one”. Well I didn’t stick to my guns, but I should have. Brown went 5 for 66, scoring double digit PPR points which is nice for a sleeper. Jones didn’t have a catch, let alone a target, and did not dance in the endzone for us all to enjoy.

Ok, my last chance here at sleeper success…
Jermaine Kearse (WR, SEA): A surprise, I know. But the Arizona Cardinals are 11-3 because of their defense. Then why am I mentioning a receiver from the Seahawks? This is a run first team with a running quarterback and a half-man/half-machine at running back. Wilson is going to have to throw the ball. Baldwin is the #1 receiver, but Kearse is the deep threat, averaging 15.6 yards per catch last week. He’s got to reel one in for a score, and I think he does it this week.
C.J. Fiedorowicz (TE, HOU): Who? Never heard of him? Of course you haven’t, he has 2 catches this entire season, but hear me out. Garrett Graham is not likely to suit up this weekend. Still, why this no name rookie? Case Keenum is going to be starting for the Texans this weekend, and he is going to need a security blanket. The Ravens have a good run defense and will pay a lot of attention to Foster, Hopkins isn’t looking good to play, and Andrew Johnson will be given a shadow I’d assume. Keenum could look to throw some short passes underneath to the tight end, who this week is Fiedorowics...gulp.
Jeremy Kerley (WR, NYJ): Now you really must think I’m nuts, but Browner should be on Decker, and the Patriots are going to dare Geno Smith to throw the ball. Who better than the veteran Jeremy Kerley? He can run deep routes, short ones out of the slot, and most importantly he is not afraid to take a hit across the middle. If Geno can get a few out of the gun quickly, there’s no reason he can’t hit Kerley for 5 catches. If Smith can manage to get into the red zone, Kerley could be rewarded with some pay dirt.
Lance Dunbar (RB, DAL): I’m putting Dunbar in here because everyone else on the internet likes Joseph Randle this week, so I’m going out on a limb here. Let me preface with this: I think DeMarco Murray will play Sunday. I also think Randle will be heavily involved. I’m naming Dunbar a sleeper because I think it is so risky that Murray is playing that there is no way the Cowboys will further risk injury with him ramming his hand forward on the goal line. Dunbar can sneak one in for a score.

Finally, I present you with my last 5 twitter follows of the season…with a bonus follow...
The Fantasy Football Chick: She has a ton of credentials, her writing is all over, and her feed is full of links to fantasy relevant articles.
Blaine Blontz: If his name sounds familiar to you, it’s because you do your lineup research on FantasyPros. Blaine is also all over injury news, which is crucial on Sundays.
Mike Monlux: If you’re reading this, then you're a visitor to the site, and you are well aware of who Mike is. Give him a follow, and ask him some waiver or start/sit questions this week!
Bob Tierney: Another FFLibrarian contributor. It’s championship week, so if you haven’t checked out his Streaming Defenses article yet, you’re missing out. Go ahead, as him on twitter what he thinks of your defense for the championship.
Sara Holladay: Sara is THE fantasy football librarian! Sara also gave us all our opportunity here, so go give her a follow!

As always, you can follow me, this week and beyond. Fantasy is a year round thing for me, and I look forward to mock drafting with anyone who wants to when they open in June.

Good luck everyone! This is it! You might see me next week with some DFS advice!


Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Waiver Wire Advice: Week 16

And here's your second post of the night: Mike's waiver wire suggestions for this fantasy super bowl week. If any of you are playing in Week 17 and are interested in getting more links for lineup help next week, leave a comment so that I can pull something together for you!


Here we are in the final week (for most people) of fantasy football for 2014. We’ve been through four months of draft research, hand-wringing over starting lineup decisions, waiver wire analysis, frustration and elation. Hopefully you’ve enjoyed the process, because we all do this for fun, right? 

I hope that you don’t have to go to the waiver wire this week for a starter in your finals, because the wire isn’t pretty this week, but let’s take a closer look at a couple developing situations.

DeMarco Murray has led many a fantasy team to the finals this season. It was revealed yesterday that he had surgery for a broken hand. Early reports indicate Murray will play through the injury, but if you have Murray (or even if you don’t), it’s vital that you try to get Joseph Randle and Lance Dunbar on your roster. There is no next week, so drop any player that you won’t be using this week, get Randle and Dunbar on your team, and monitor the situation this week. I’d expect Randle to have the primary role if Murray is out, but Dunbar’s role should be fairly significant even if Murray plays, as Murray’s ability to catch will likely be hampered.

If you’re desperate at QB, you could do worse than Robert Griffin III versus Philadelphia this week. The Eagles will surely be piling up points quickly against the putrid Redskins defense, so it will be on RGIII to try and keep pace. He looked a bit more spry in his appearance last week, and the Eagles have a very suspect pass defense. Hopefully you have safer options, but RGIII is a high-upside desperation play. Oh and if Mark Sanchez is available in your league, I’d consider playing him over all but the top-tier QBs.

This will be my last waiver article of the season. Thanks to everyone who everyone who took the time to read, and hopefully it helped you out at some point during the season. Best of luck to everyone in the finals.

On to the links…..
NikBonaddio from Numberfire notes that Frank Gore may be out this week, and recommends taking a look at Carlos Hyde.
Brad Evans of Yahoo likes RGIII’s chances of putting up big numbers this week.
Adam Levitan from Rotoworld likes Harry Douglas and Malcom Floyd as WR additions
Christopher Harris from ESPN suggests adding Joseph Randle and Carlos Hyde, and has some speculative finds for those playing in Week 17.
Find me on Twitter for any questions or feedback!

Streaming Defenses: Week 16

It's a special Tuesday, I've got two posts for you tonight. First up, Bob's take on defenses that you might want to roll with this week. 


Well it’s championship week, and if you’re reading this you’ve made it to the pinnacle, and I hope I’ve helped in some small way. At this point of the season you are probably locked into one of the top defenses and will ride them to the final outcome. But there may be some unlikely teams in the finals due to the disastrous week 15 for QBs. So some of you may not have the best matchup. First let’s look at week 14 stats:
Week 15



Top Performers

Team
Projected
Actual

Ravens*
23
Ravens
14
23

Bengals
19
Giants
14
11

Bills
18
Packers
12
10

Patriots
18
Vikings
12
6

Chiefs
18
      Average
13
12.5



      AVG

10.8



      % 0wned

13



      Rec % owned

12.4



      Bad % Owned

15




The Ravens killed it and the Giants and Packers held their own. The Vikings were a disappointment however and the streamers only averaged 12.5 points. Normally a good week, since the overall average was only 10.8. But the highly owned teams kicked it in and averaged 13 points in a week that saw a lot of QBs stagger. The Bills and 49ers surprised as not recommended starts. But overall, the highly owned did well.   So what’s in store for this week?

Player
Pts
Avg
% Owned
Opp
Comment
Seahawks
156
11.1
97%
@ARI
6th best start, Cards are stingy, but SEA is peaking
Cardinals
174
12.4
90%
SEA
Start but temper expectations
Lions
169
12.1
89%
@CHI
4th best start, CHI is down and out, may even see new QB
Eagles
195
13.9
88%
@WAS
1st best start, WAS is a DEF giving machine right now
Patriots
163
11.6
85%
@NYJ
3rd best start, it's the Jets
Texans
172
12.3
84%
BAL
Start but temper expectations
Rams
160
11.4
82%
NYG
5th best start, Rams can still bring it
Ravens
158
11.3
82%
@HOU
7th best start, Ravens are on a roll, and now a new QB
Bills
196
14
81%
@OAK
2nd best start, OAK is still a good DEF target
49ers
150
10.7
81%
SD
I don't like this matchup, the Niners may have given up.
Chiefs
131
9.4
74%
@PIT
I don't like this matchup, avoid if possible






Packers
156
11.1
59%
@TB
1st best stream, the Pack are seeing red this week and will take it out on TB
Giants
126
9
41%
@STL
2nd best stream, Giants D can disrupt the Rams
Titans
108
7.7
23%
@JAC
3rd best stream, unlikely start but big upside against the most generous DEF pts giver

The highly owned teams look to do well again this week, but I don’t like the 49ers or Chiefs.

First best stream is one I recommended last week, and the Packers have an even juicier matchup this week.  Look for the Pack to rebound and do it on DEF. Expect 14 points with upside.

Second, once again, the Giants have a good matchup against a generous Rams team. In fact, both could do well, but the Giants will do better. Expect 12 points.

And for my final recommendation of the year, the Titans. The Titans??? Yep, they have nothing to play for except respect, and they have the ‘first round pick in the draft’ Jags. Don’t expect the Jags to give up that pick. They go out with a whimper and yield a ton of points to the Titans, to the tune of 12 points with upside.  

This will do it for my articles to the FFLibrarian for this season. Watch for more new exciting articles in the months to come from the FFLibrarian. We’re already strategizing new ways to help our readers even in the off season. 

And a fond thank you to Sara and the gang of 4 contributors this year, it’s been a real pleasure to work with you all and look forward to next year…