Tuesday, September 01, 2015

September has arrived

Happy September! A month of awesomeness: the start of football, fall weather, and when my big guy turns 5. Five years old! I mean, where has the time gone?! Here are a handful of links to help you usher in September:

Friday, August 28, 2015

Average PPR rankings

This is going to be short and sweet, friends, since let's be honest: it's late(ish) east coast time and I have a kid who likes to wake before dawn. He couldn't care less that tomorrow is Saturday; all the better for him, really, since the look in his eyes most certainly says let's get the weekend morning party started extra early, mama! So back to FF. The general idea here is that I've updated my average position rankings spreadsheet to reflect the latest rankings, but the real change is that it's for PPR rankings only. You all have spoken and you requested some PPR lovin', so that's indeed what you're getting. Here you have it: PPR version of the average position rankings spreadsheet.

Once again, if you need the excel version emailed to you, just send me an email and I'll try and get it to you within 12 hours if I can. I know it's draft crunch time, so I'll do my best to get it out ASAP. Now in return, send me wishes for deep and long-lasting sleep tonight. Ha! Maybe in 10 years.

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Late-round and value grabs

Last night my sister had her fantasy football draft and I played the role of consultant, though I must admit, I think I'm off my game this year. Is that what happens when life gets in the way of fantasy football? Apparently. Anyway, to prep for her draft she asked for some late-round picks and sleeper thoughts, so here are some of the links that I sent her way....and of course other great linkiness (it's a word, right?):

Thursday, August 20, 2015

New projections/rankings and other links for 2015

So our backyard is this epic mud pit right now. We have a fairly steep slope back there that has always been a bit of an enigma for us, so when we learned that we had to replace some sewer lines a few weeks ago, my head hurt just thinking about the implications on many levels. The plumbing work involved tearing up our backyard and a digger that needed to be hauled off our back slope with chains since it was stuck in the muck (much to our sons' delight). What used to be a haven for kudzu and ivy is now just a steep slope of dirt and random debris that has been uncovered in our yard. It's a mess on days like today when it has been raining - a hideous mess - but it's really just a blank slate, right? Right?! This is kind of how I feel about my dynasty team, too, which went 6-8 last year and was just in a sad state at the end of the year. Now there's work to be done! Teams and yards to be refurbished! So on that note, let's get to today's links:

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

2015 average position rankings

As requested, I've brought back my annual average position rankings spreadsheet. I've been compiling this list since 2007 and it sounds like many of you still find value in it, so I keep cranking it out each year. Here's hoping you find it helpful on draft day!

Yesterday I gathered Top 200 overall preseason rankings (or Top 150 as the case may be) from 12 different experts/sites and averaged them together to create a consensus ranking. The sites I drew from are: CBSSports.com (both Jamey Eisenberg and Dave Richard), The Fake Football, Yahoo, SI, FantasyPros, FFCalculator's ADP, Scout, The Football Girl, ESPN (Matthew Berry), NFL.com, and RealTime Fantasy Sports. These are all rankings for standard leagues, not PPR. One day when I find I have copious amounts of time, I'll do a PPR list, too, but hey that might be decades off, right? I've included the standard deviation for each player's ranking so that you have a sense of how much consensus there is on a player's ranking. So the lower the standard deviation, the more of a consensus there is on the ranking for that player. I find this extra bit of information helpful when debating between players.

So here is your 2015 average position rankings spreadsheet - if you need it e-mailed to you instead, just send me an e-mail and I'll try and get it out to you within 24 hours. Let me know if you find any errors or have any questions!

Thursday, August 13, 2015

Rankings, flow charts, and beyond

Greetings from a remarkably cool morning in Tennessee. I've turned my local Starbucks into my office (I telecommute) most mornings and it's so splendidly breezy and cool out here that I'm actually happily outside on their patio cranking out some fantasy links for you this morning. Enjoy!

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Prepping for the fall

The fall is coming and it's going to be a bit crazy in our house with lots of work travel for my husband, my boys' birthdays, and just general shenanigans that keep us on our toes. Not to mention football. Oh the football. Last night my oldest son requested the chance to watch football practice on tv. Practice, my friends, not even a game. He just wanted to watch whatever football news was happening on ESPN. Ha. Apparently we're hard up for football in our house.

Now to the links!

Monday, August 10, 2015

Comeback player of the year thoughts

Happy post-Hall of Fame Game. Always a signal that things are really starting to ramp up for the year. Today's post is from guest writer Bob who takes a look at some candidates for NFL comeback player of the year and why you might want to keep your eye on them from a fantasy standpoint. Enjoy!



Comeback player of the year candidates are my favorite sleepers when it comes to Fantasy Football. These players are often overlooked as ‘sleepers’ so they can be a sneaky draft pick in later rounds or a value pick in early rounds. Sometimes people simply forget about them because they didn’t put up any stats the previous year and go unnoticed or not included in cheatsheets. That’s one of my favorite reasons to make sure that I have identified potential comeback candidates. The second biggest reason is that, unlike a sleeper, if they do perform, they usually do it in style, which means a lot of fantasy points for a late round pick. 

Comeback players fall into about three categories:

  • injured the previous year
  • traded player that makes good on new team
  • player who just had a very bad previous year usually due to bad supporting cast or coach

One unusual situation this year is one player is coming back from a year-long suspension (AP). 

Some this year are obvious, like Adrian Petersen and Carson Palmer. And a lot of people are predicting good things with Nick Foles and Sam Bradford. But this is fertile territory for defensive players. That’s good news for the IDP players. Even though a defensive player has only won the actual title once over the years, there’s still wisdom in knowing which ones might make a big comeback at their position.

Here are some sites that take a dive into predicting some of 2015’s candidates.


So who do we like for later rounds? Keep an eye on Marvin Jones…

Tuesday, August 04, 2015

Monster League 2015!

It's that time of year: the FFLibrarian Monster League is open for business. I've contacted all the previous participants and have a few spots to fill in the league. If you'd like to play, please send me an e-mail ASAP and include your name, team name, and e-mail address. The league usually fills up really quickly, so you'll want to make sure you move fast. I'll update this post when the league is full. Update: the league is full - thanks for your interest!

For those who are new here, it's called the monster league because there are 6 conferences of 12 teams each, so if you win as Grumpy Pants did back in 2014, then you can declare yourself victor over 71 other teams and win a prize at the end of the season. It's free and all rules and such can be found on the league's website.


Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Fantasy advice as training camps approach

The Broncos training camp starts on Friday and I'm really wishing I still lived back in Colorado and could take my oldest kiddo to Dove Valley for a lesson in awesomeness and fandom. One day! But training camp is here/coming and the fantasy football content is really starting to appear now, my friends. Let's take a look at a few helpful articles:

Friday, July 24, 2015

A look at the 2015 rookie class

Greetings, FFers. As I mentioned earlier this week, I've got my crew of awesome writers back for 2015 and Bob is here with some thoughts on which rookies you might want to consider, particularly those of you in dynasty leagues. Enjoy!

Hey folks, the Fantasy Football season is just around the corner and one of the first things I do is research my picks for my Dynasty League Rookies. I’ve looked up six Fantasy sites for their inputs and then compiled them into a consensus ranking. Here are the sites that I used for this compilation:

  • This one is already a consensus rankings from FantasyPros.
  • And this one is from Fantasy Football Today, one of the best free sites out there.
  • Next up, this link is from the Dynasty Nerds website, a pretty good one for Dynasty Leagues and this is from a mock draft.
  •  This next ranking only lists the top ten prospects from Yahoo
  •  Finally another Dynasty League free site. This one goes 50 deep, but I only consider the top 20.
  • This ranking is the current MyFantasyLeague average draft position to date.
But first, let’s take a look back at last year’s Rookies to see if we can gain some insight on who we might pick this year. Below is a comparison of the top 24 rookies picked in the 2014 draft as compiled from MyFantasyLeague.com, along with their performance during the 2014 season.
Rank
Player/Team/Position
ADP
2014 Pos Rank
2014 Overall Rank
AVG Fantasy Pts
1
Sankey, Bishop TEN RB
67
44
223
6.9
2
Watkins, Sammy BUF WR
82
27
83
11.9
3
Cooks, Brandin NOS WR
87
55
179
13.3
4
Benjamin, Kelvin CAR WR
102
16
53
13.7
5
Evans, Mike TBB WR
104
13
44
15.7
6
Hyde, Carlos SFO RB
109
57
270
5.5
7
Freeman, Devonta ATL RB
122
54
261
5.2
8
Hill, Jeremy CIN RB
128
11
43
14.9
9
West, Terrance CLE RB
133
32
173
9.8
10
Matthews, Jordan PHI WR
136
26
79
12.1
11
Ebron, Eric DET TE
136
40
328
3.9
12
Williams, Andre NYG RB
139
22
106
10.7
13
Lee, Marqise JAC WR
156
No appreciable performance

14
Manziel, Johnny CLE QB
156
53
456
2.5
15
Mason, Tre STL RB
164
28
136
13.2
16
White, James NEP RB
169
No appreciable performance

17
Latimer, Cody DEN WR
171
No appreciable performance

18
Beckham, Odell NYG WR
172
6
29
24.2
19
Bortles, Blake JAC QB
173
23
64
15.1
20
Bridgewater, Teddy MIN QB
174
22
60
16.4
21
Seferian-Jenkins, Austin TBB TE
180
43
331
5.7
22
Rodgers, Richard GBP TE
185
42
330
3.2
23
Carey, Ka'Deem CHI RB
190
No appreciable performance

24
Carr, Derek OAK QB
194
20
45
14.5

Clearly it was the year of the rookie WR last year. I can’t remember another year in my 15 year history of Fantasy Football where WRs took off in their rookie year. In fact, it was well accepted that picking a rookie WR in the draft was folly. But last year changed things, and it may be a trend to continue. 

WRs: The big winner was Odell Beckham who ended up 6th in overall WR performance. But Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Evans cracked the top twenty as well. Brandin Cooks, Sammy Watkins, and Jordan Matthews did well when they played with good per game averages. Last year I was laughed at when I picked Kelvin Benjamin and Brandin Cooks with my 6th and 7th picks…I won the league.

RBs: Jeremy Hill surprised last year and ended up an every week start before the end of the season. Three other RBs performed well when they played, with good points averaged per game: Andre Williams, Terrence West, and Tre Mason. But they were mostly the recipients of getting starts because of injuries to previous starters; Rashad Jennings, Isaiah Crowell, and Benny Cunningham. 

QBs: Manziel, drafted first, was a bust but that didn’t come as a surprise to many. Carr, Bortles, and Bridgewater did pretty well as starting rookies, so don’t discount this year’s probable rookie starters.

TEs: All a bust, so beware taking any rookie TE this year. TEs have a tougher time becoming familiar with team playbooks because the position is so versatile and has so many decisions.

So that takes us to this year…

Here’s the compilation averaging the rankings of the top 20. I don’t give much credibility beyond 20 rookies each year but went 27 deep to watch for those. I would never give up a spot on my roster to a rookie that lowly ranked when I can use it for an active player. I’ve included the AVG rank which is the compilation results along with the average draft position data to date. 

Rank
Player/Position/Team
AVG Rank
MFL ADP
MFL ADP Rank
1
Amari Cooper, WR Oak
2.00
39
3
2
Todd Gurley, RB StL
2.20
36
2
3
Melvin Gordon, RB SD
3.00
35
1
4
Kevin White, WR Chi
5.20
56
4
5
Nelson Agholor, WR Phi
6.20
82
9
6
DeVante Parker, WR Mia
7.25
76
6
7
T.J. Yeldon, RB Jac
7.40
61
5
8
 Ameer Abdullah, RB Det
7.60
79
8
9
Dorial Green-Beckam, WR Ten
8.33
93
10
10
Tevin Coleman, RB Atl
8.40
78
7
11
 Breshad Perriman, WR Bal
8.50
96
11
12
Jameis Winston, QB TB
12.00
116
14
13
Duke Johnson, RB Cle
14.00
102
12
14
Devin Funchess, WR Car
14.25
126
15
15
Max Williams, TE Bal
15.67
138
20
16
Jaelen Strong, WR Hou
15.75
126
16
17
Chris Conley, WR KC
16.00
190
26
18
David Cobb, RB Ten
17.00
132
19
19
Phillip Dosett, WR Ind
17.00
145
21
20
David Johnson, RB Ari
17.25
127
17
21
 Marcus Mariota, QB Ten
17.40
129
18
22
Jay Ajayi, RB Mia
17.75
106
13
23
Javorius Allen, RB Bal
21.33
173
22
24
Tyler Lockett, WR Sea
22.00
182
25
25
Devin Smith, WR NYJ
22.50
191
27
26
Sammy Coates, WR Pit
22.50
179
24
27
Matt Jones, RB Was
24.67
173
23

The top ten rankings are equally spilt between WRs and RBs, no surprise there. That was the same as last year. Notice in the ADP that RBs move up a little due to the scarcity of RBs in later rounds in most drafts.

I agree with most of the data here, and will be using it in my drafts, updating as ADP changes and injuries are discovered. But be cognizant of the situations per team, such as opportunities to start or glaring openings at positions and dependency on the QB. Amari Cooper deserves the top spot and I like Derek Carr to continue to improve. Most experts are predicting a vast improvement from Oakland this year as well. So this looks like a great situation for Cooper. Todd Gurley, depending on his questionable health situation, has only Cunningham and Mason to beat for the spot. Gurley wins easily if he’s healthy. I love Melvin Gordon in SD, he will fill a big void at RB and get lots of touches. Same with Kevin White, filling in for Brandon Marshall. Nelson Agholor has an opportunity to start with Maclin gone and will be in a pass-happy offense. Big question in Philly is the QB. DeVante Parker doesn’t have as good a situation as others, but I like Tannehill. Both T.J. Yeldon and Ameer Abdullah have great holes for them to fill in Jac and Det, respectively. Winston is slated to start by all indications but temper expectations; he’s not going to be an every week starter that I can see. There are a lot of questions on whether Mariota will start the season, I don’t see it, but will probably end up there by the end of the year. I like Mariota as a dynasty stash. And as for TEs…don’t bother.

So there you have it, have another great year and look to the Fantasy Football Librarian for more insights in the coming weeks.