Saturday, October 18, 2014

Last minute Week 7 prep

Greetings and happy Saturday night. I've got a guest post below from a fellow FFLibrarian reader, Jen Ryan. She's a self-described fantasy football stats junkie and brings us her thoughts for some last minute prep before tomorrow's games. Enjoy!

Hey all! I’m very excited for my first contribution here on the fflibrarian.com, and I’d like to thank  Sara again for the opportunity. Kickoff is at 1PM tomorrow, so let’s dive right in!

Before you continue reading, if you have Percy Harvin you need to stop what you’re doing and  bench him NOW! I’m sure you may have heard the news that he was sent packing over  to the east coast. It was smooth to announce the trade during the Friday afternoon news  dump, the slowest of news hours, but thanks to Jay Glazer’s big break, the internet pretty much  exploded over the news. So what does this mean for fantasy? Well a few things. First, the Jets  already played this week, so he is of no use to you in week 7. If you haven’t already dropped him  (he’s pretty much been invisible since his week one 7 for 59 yard receiving/4 for 41 yard rushing  stat line. ­I know he fooled you with that week 2 touchdown against San Diego to validate your  likely 6th­8th round pick spent on him), you need to subscribe to the “wait and see” approach  until we know what the crumbling Jets will do with him. From a fantasy perspective keep in mind  that the regular season is typically 13 games. Percy has now become unavailable to you for 3 of  those games. He had a bye week 4 with the Seahawks, is literally unplayable this week, and still  has the Jets bye week 11. Is he worth it? The jury is out on that one.   

It’s week 7, which means we are half way through the fantasy regular season. If you are 6­-0 or  5­1 then that’s great! You’re almost guaranteed a playoff spot, and you’re doing something right,  so keep it going! If you’re 4-­2 or 3­-3 then now is the time to make those moves you need to make  to improve your team so you can go on a run. Now, if you are 2-­4, 1­-5, or the dreaded 0­-6, do not  give up hope yet! There is still time. It may seem desperate, but you could be a savvy waiver  wire pick up or blockbuster trade away from getting back up there in fantasy relevance. Don’t quit: it says something about your character, and it will probably anger the rest of your league. Take risks, gamble a little, and start chipping away at your losing record.   

Here are two start/sit links, in addition to the links Sara has already provided, that you should  check out before finalizing your week 7 line up:   

  • EPSN's Matthew Berry's Love/Hate Week 7 - if fantasy football was it’s own nation, then Matthew Berry is the president, who happens to be exempt from the two term rule because he is one of  the four fathers of this game we love to play and he isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Not only  is he brilliant, but if you enjoy a good read, this is the site for you. He knows how to write, google  him!     
  • numberFire.com's Start/Sit Week 7 - there isn’t enough room here for me to tell you all the  reasons why you should be checking out numberFire.com. There is a wealth of fantasy  knowledge there, and the site’s owner JJ Zachariason developed an insane algorithm that takes  pretty much every stat available to determine “Net Expected Points”. There is a link on the site  that breaks it down, and it’s not easy to understand, but who cares! It works!     
There are also a few sites I consider to be every week sites. These are sites I consult for season  long information, stats, advice, waiver wire, start/sit, pretty much anything fantasy related that I  use on a weekly….ok I’ll admit it….daily basis:
  • numberFire.com's Questions Forum - sensing a trend here? I can’t get enough of numberFire!  This section of the site is where I turn when I have done all my research and just can’t seem to  make a decision. When in doubt, I poll the people! This forum allows you to post questions,  answer questions for fellow fantasy junkies, and earn “reputation points” based on the analysis  you provide for your new internet friends that you will make on here. No expert advice ­ just other players sharing their knowledge. Not sure who you should flex? Can’t decide on a trade offer?  Curious who is the best player for the rest of the season? Not sure who to pluck off waivers?  Somewhere in the questions forum there is someone just waiting to answer your burning  questions!    
  • Junkyard Jake's Target Stats - if you’re like me, then a small statistics nut lives deep inside of  you. And if you’re even more like me, the #1 stat that drives your fantasy decisions is red zone  targets. Targets = touch downs = points = wins = happy Sunday! If you didn’t consult this chart,  how else would you know that Rueben Randle is tied for 2nd most red zone targets (13) with  Brandon Marshall, just behind Jordy Nelson’s 15 targets? Junkyard Jake also does you the favor  of giving you total targets, weekly targets, and catch percentages.    
  • Fantasysharks.com - in addition to their articles and projections, Fantasy Sharks also has a  great Fantasy Sharks Line Up Coach. It’s very simple: ­input your players, and the Line Up  Coach provides information you will need for each player's match up each week. And best of all,  it’s totally free! All you need to do is sign up.    
  • And finally, if you’re willing to spend $29.95 up front, and $24.95 annually after that, then The  Huddle: Fantasy Football is where you should pony up that money. I am a subscriber and I can  vouch that it is worth every penny. In-depth analysis, customized scoring rankings, daily articles,  and the daily email report make it more than worth it. Now’s the time to join, too. They are  offering $15 off the membership ­if you sign up now and use the coupon code CHAMP2014.     
And now, a few thoughts on twitter….full disclosure, I’m not much of a social networker. I like the fact that if you google “Jen Ryan”  (me), then you’d have to spend a decent amount of time tracking me down. With that said, I do feel one of the keys to my fantasy success (I’m 6-­0 in one of my leagues!) boils down to who I  follow on twitter. A simple google search can provide you with all the experts, gurus, guys/gals  you see on tv, etc who you can follow for fantasy tips, but here are 5 other handles you should be  following for your fantasy needs:   
  • Chris Raybon -­ an absolute statistics machine, and if you are into daily fantasy sports, he’s a  genius in that department.    
  • Manuel Retweet - the co-founder of 2mugsff.com, he is very funny, and he is also one of the only people who answers me when I have questions!
  • Ryan Boser ­- a draft expert who also provides insightful, humorous fantasy commentary.
  • Allie Fontana ­- you may have read her work, or heard her on many a podcast or radio show. She  is one of the queens in this male dominated field, she knows her stuff, and she is perfectly  quirky!    
  • Me! - yes, me! While I don’t “tweet” any “expert advice”, I love to chat with anyone and everyone  on all things fantasy. We can help each other out! If nothing else, my feed is nothing but fantasy  follows so you can get information through me!    
  • Another twitter tidbit...It is important to follow the local beat writers for the teams of your players.  They know it all, they have a relationship with players in the locker room, and they almost always  know things before the rest of us. More importantly, they usually are the ones to break injury  news. Got a guy on your team who is listed as questionable or as a game time decision? Look  up his local beat writer, I’d be willing to bet the writer knows whether or not your guy will suit up  and give it a go.    
Good luck this week!            

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Week 7 goodness and a call for writers

Hello. Remember me? Your fantasy football advice linker? Right, been awhile, I know. Good to be back and I'm here with links plus an offer I hope you can't refuse. You all know I've spent 8 years now on this site and I love it, I really do. But these two tiny people in my life are winning out (as they should and my God, they're incredible little guys) and my priorities are shifting; I just don't have the time and energy I used to have for this site. So what do you all think about joining forces? I hate hearing from long-time users who miss the links and I want to do something about it. So, do you know a bit about fantasy football, have some extra time on your hands, use decent grammar, and don't want to see this site slowly disappear? Great, then write for the blog. Send me an e-mail and let me know if you're interested in contributing once a week or two with links to really solid fantasy advice. I'll try and find a way to compensate you (think very minimally here...) and maybe we can build something great from our community of fantasy football addicts.

In the meantime, let's jump into Week 7:

One of my other favorite tools that I seem to use year after year is FFToday's Strength of Schedule chart. It only becomes more valuable with time as we learn more about each team's relative strengths and weaknesses and can be a helpful tool for bye weeks and tricky replacements.

Tuesday, September 09, 2014

Waiver wire link dump

Hmm, I knew I would struggle to post this season but I never intended to be this quiet. Apologies, I'll work on getting some links up more frequently. We're struggling with an 11 month old who suddenly loves to be AWAKE (let's-make-as-much-noise-as-possible-and-no-there's-zero-chance-I-will-lie-back-down-and-cuddle-with-you-for-even-five-more-minutes-wait-where-is-the-food-and-my-toys-and-is-that-a-phone-on-your-nightstand-not-being-used-and-oh-God-where-is-my-awesome-brother-I-should-make-even-more-noise-to-roust-him-too) at about 5:45 AM. Not loving it.

But Week 1 has wrapped up and I've got your waiver wire articles to get you situated for pure dominance in Week 2. Let's get to it:

Finally, let's also get the ball rolling on rankings for Week 2 - look no further than Fantasy Rundown, which does a spectacular job of collecting all sorts of rankings in one spot, and will be fleshing out their links as they become available. 

Thursday, August 21, 2014

2014 Average Position Rankings spreadsheet

Friends, I've got a first draft of the 2014 Average Position Rankings spreadsheet up here as a google doc. If you're new to this annual spreadsheet or need a refresher, here's the scoop. I take the top 200 or so overall rankings that are freely offered by a handful of sites and I average out their rankings for each player. I also take the standard deviation to see how a player's rankings differ among experts, and add that in as another component to give you a sense of how much consensus there is on a player.

I drew from the following sites this year: FFToolbox, CBSSports.com (both Jamey and Dave), ESPN, FFCalc's ADP, The Fake Football, The Football Girl, NFL.com, DavidGonos.com, SI, Yahoo, FantasyPros.com, and RealTime Fantasy Sports. All offered roughly a top 200 overall ranking and you can see each site's ranking (gathered 8/20/14) in the second tab on the spreadsheet.

You'll see that I really haven't fleshed it out a ton yet - I still have to get both the positions and rankings within position entered in, color code that beast, flesh out some of the details on the individual site rankings tab, etc. But I know many of you need something like this ASAP and I wanted to get it out there.

I'll be back soon with links and such for your draft prep.

Saturday, August 09, 2014

FFLibrarian Monster League

Want to play in the FFLibrarian Monster League? 6 conferences, 72 teams, 1 champion. If you're interested in playing in the monster league and are ready and willing to be competitive for the full season, please send me an e-mail with your team name and e-mail address. I have about 20 spots open this year but trust me these spots go fast. This is the 6th year of the league and it is generously hosted by MyFantasyLeague.com. The past two years the same awesome FFL reader, Jeff, has won the league so I'm pretty sure it's game ON this year.

I'll post back here when all of the spots have been taken. UPDATE: all the spots have been taken but if you want to be on the wait list, feel free to e-mail anyway.

Tuesday, August 05, 2014

Welcome to the 2014 season

Greetings from your long-lost Fantasy Football Librarian. I'm starting to hear from you regular readers that have been coming to FFL for years who are making sure that I'm alive and well, and I realized that I need to update you all on my plans for the season. Turns out having 2 kids and a job is kind of a time and energy suck - as many of you know - and I have been thinking a lot about how much of a commitment I can make to you all in terms of the regularity of my posts. Truth is, I have no clue. I debated whether or not to shut this site down for the season but I love football and I love being a resource for you guys. So I'm going to make an attempt for the 2014 season...but I warn you, this may be even more sporadic than in the past. I will do my best though!

Oh and those 2 energy- and time-sucking kiddos? They're awesome. Right now our oldest is almost exclusively wearing football jerseys to preschool (lots of laundry is going on in our house to make that happen) and our youngest has just figured out how to climb up our stairs.  I know some of you have been here on this blog since long before my days as a mom - can you all believe that they're turning 4 and 1 soon? I've been blessed with just a remarkable family. 

Enough on my boys, here are a few resources to whet your palate for 2014. More to come. Soon.

  • Once again you're not going to want to miss FantasyPro's Draft Wizard - I think the auction league calculator is one of my favorite tools on here but you've got plenty of extremely helpful tools (mock drafts, cheat sheet creators, etc). It just gets better every year.
  • Or scope out NFL.com's Draft Kit with mocks, sleepers, bargains, all that good stuff.
  • Many of you are trying to settle on a draft date/time right now for your league - give the FF Nerd's Draft Date Picker a try if you need a hand with things. It should make your life much easier, I promise.
  • Rotoworld has a Favorite Fliers article which focuses on guys with an ADP of 115 or higher. Or try out SI's list of 20 2014 Fantasy Football Sleepers.
  • RotoViz has their Composite Wide Receiver Rankings (August Edition) up for your review, filled with commentary from their rankers.
  • IDP information:
  • I always enjoy reading CBSSports.com's Draft Prep series where they give strategies and player suggestions based on each draft position - they start off with Picking no.1 overall and Picking no. 2 overall (videos start immediately).
  • 4for4.com gets us thinking about the streaming strategy (plugging in a player off the waiver wire each week) with their QBBWW thoughts - Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 1 Targets.

Friday, January 17, 2014

2013 Fantasy Football Accuracy Results Are In!

Greetings and welcome to the 2013 results of the fantasy football accuracy contest that I run each year in conjunction with the Fantasy Sports Trade Association (FSTA). This is my 7th year of the rankings contest and I am thrilled to once again report back on which sites' preseason rankings have proven most accurate. There were 59 participants in this year's contest and on Thursday night, the top sites were revealed at the FSTA's Winter Conference in Las Vegas.

Participants were asked to submit their top 25 QBs, 50 RBs, 50 WRs, and 20 TEs using a standard scoring system as listed below:


Passing Yards (25 yards per point)
Passing Touchdowns (4)
Rushing Yards (10 yards per point)
Reception Yards (10 yards per point)
Rushing & Receiving Touchdowns (6)
Interceptions & Fumbles Lost (-2)

At the end of the regular NFL season, I gathered fantasy point totals from FFToday.com's Statistics Page for all players that scored any fantasy points and created an end-of-season ranking based on these actual results. I compared the end-of-season rankings with the rankings that each site submitted for the contest by merely taking the difference between the rankings, and then also squaring that difference to reward closer accuracy (or punish larger discrepancies, however you want to look at it). The site with the smallest difference between their rankings and the end-of-season rankings averaged across all four positions was the winner.

So without further ado, the winner this year was Mike Clay from ProFootballFocus.com. If Clay's name is familiar to you, well, it should be. His analysis and articles have been all over the best of the fantasy football universe this year and I dare say it's for good reason. But I'm also happy to report that last year's unofficial winner, Micah James of FF Magic Man, came in a very close second place this year. I can guarantee you that I'll be reading the FF Magic Man's rankings quite closely next year. Read on for the rest of the top results from 2013.

Most Accurate Rankings Across All Positions:
Ranking       Site                                                AverageRank          
1 ProFootballFocus.com 12.25
2 FF Magic Man 12.5
3 LeagueSafe Post Super 16.75
4 FantasyCouncil.com 17.75
5 Game Day Lineup 18.5
6 FantasySharks.com 19
7 4for4.com 19.25
8 RotoExperts 20.75
9 FF Guidebook 22
10 Scott Pianowski, Yahoo 22.25
10 FFCalculator (ADP) 22.25
12 Dynasty League Football 22.75
13 Dalton Del Don, Yahoo 23.75
14 Fantasy Football Maniax 24.25
15 The Hazean 24.5


Most Accurate Quarterback Rankings:

Ranking                           Site                                          
1 Scott Pianowski, Yahoo
2 Pyromaniac.com
3 Draft Analyzer Ultimate
4 DobberFootball.com
5 Steve's Fantasy Advice
6 RotoExperts
7 LeagueSafe Post Super
8 Paul Charchian, LeagueSafe
9 4for4.com
10 Fantasy Football Maniax

Most Accurate Running Back Rankings:

Rankings                        Site                                 
1 Dynasty League Football 
2 FantasyCouncil.com
3 ProFootballFocus.com
4 Game Day Lineup
5 DraftSharks
6 Pyromaniac.com
7 William del Pilar
8 FantasyFootballNerd.com
9 4for4.com
10 Mastersball.com

Most Accurate Wide Receiver Rankings:

Rankings                        Site                                                  
1 FF Magic Man
2 ProFootballFocus.com
3 Pigskin Addiction
4 The Huddle
5 Nathan Zegura, CBSSports.com
6 Mike Nease, FantasyInsights.com
7 Dish Adams, FantasyInsights.com
8 FantasyFootballMagic.com
9 FantasyCouncil.com
10 FFCalculator (ADP)

Most Accurate Tight Ends Rankings:

Rankings                        Site                                                         
1 Ask The Commish
2 FantasyTools.com
3 FantasySharks.com
4 ProFootballFocus.com
5 WhatIfSports.com
6 FantasyPros911
7 FOX Sports
8 Pigskin Addiction
9 The Sports Forecaster (XML Team)
10 Fantasy Typhoon

All of the 59 participants are listed below in alphabetical order:


4for4.com
Andy Behrens, Yahoo
Ask the Commish
Bloomberg Sports
Brad Evans, Yahoo 
Brad Funston, Yahoo
Bruno Boys
Cheat Sheet War Room
Dalton Del Don, Yahoo
Dave Richard, CBSSports.com
Dish Adams, Fantasy Insights
DobberFootball.com
Draft Analyzer Ultimate
DraftSharks
Dynasty League Football
ESPN
Fantasy Football Sherpa
Fantasy Omatic
Fantasy Typhoon
FantasyCouncil.com
FantasyFootballMagic.com
FantasyFootballManiax
FantasyFootbalNerd.com
FantasyProAnalyst
FantasyPros911
FantasySharks.com
FantasyTools.com
FF Guidebook
FF Magic Man
FFCalculator (ADP)
FFEngineer
FFStarters.com
FOX Sports
Game Day Lineup
Jamey Eisenberg, CBSSports.com
KFFL
LeagueSafe Post Super
Mastersball.com
Mike Nease, Fantasy Insights
Nathan Zegura, CBSSports.com
NFL.com
Paul Charchian, LeagueSafe
PickingPros.com
Pigskin Addiction
ProFootballFocus.com
Pyromaniac.com
RealTime Fantasy Sports
RotoExperts
Rotoprofessor
Rotoworld
Scott Pianowski, Yahoo
scoutPRO
Steve's Fantasy Advice
The Hazean
The Huddle
The Sports Forecaster (XML Team)
WhatifSports
William Del Pilar
Yahoo composite

If you have any questions, let me know. Or if you submitted rankings and are curious as to how you ranked, just shoot me an e-mail.

(Note: many of you are used to seeing these results up on the NY Times' Fifth Down blog, but the Fifth Down is no more, as many of you may have already surmised!)

Thursday, December 12, 2013

Week 15 playoff prep

Here's hoping your playoffs prep is going well but if you need a little boost, I'm here for you friends. Read on for some solid advice on start/sits and rankings for the week. 

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Week 13 goodness

It snowed here in Knoxville overnight - it wasn't much, but it was thick enough on our back porch to allow our 3-year-old son to build a mini snowman, which pretty much made his day. He also took clearing the snow off of our car very seriously, reveled in his ability to make and throw snowballs, and was just very happy with these rare snow activities. So here's to the little things that fill us with happiness. Safe travels to those on the road this week and may you have a wonderful Thanksgiving and bountiful points in fantasy football this week! 

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Week 12 start/sit, sleepers, rankings

I've got a napping baby on my hands giving me a chance to toss up a few links for your Week 12 lineups. Good luck this week - it'll be a big one in my family with my Broncos facing off against my sister's Patriots!

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Week 12 waiver wire links

Sorry for the hiatus, life has been busy and I've been trying to squeeze in a few hours of work each week, bumping fantasy football a bit. But here we are at Week 12 so let's proceed to this week's waiver wire advice:

Hope to be back later this week with some start/sit advice!

Monday, November 04, 2013

Prep for Week 10 begins!

I hope everyone enjoyed a festive Halloween and is settling into the month of November. We had our kiddos dressed up as a gorilla and a banana, and after a few houses of trick-or-treating, our gorilla boy quickly caught on to the awesomeness of receiving candy with such ease. He even seems to inherently know that the mini boxes of raisins just won't cut it when it comes time to select a treat from his candy bowl.

Now it's time to start thinking about Thanksgiving and, of course, fantasy football playoffs. I was thankful to be part of Tom Brady's return to Bradyness, but less thankful to see my opponent raking in the Andre Johnson points. I will say though that big points from both seemed to be a long time coming.

Here are a few links to whet your waiver wire appetite and get you squared away with Week 9 news:

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Week 9 waiver wire + rankings advice

I've got your Week 9 links up and ready for you to read. Fingers crossed I make it back in time to get you a bunch of start/sit recommendations for the week. Good luck in Week 9!

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Week 7 lineup links

Welcome to Week 7 and your installment of start/sit and rankings links. I've got a sleeping 2-week-old baby (woohoo! sleep!) and thought I'd crank out a few links to help you get your lineups set for the week.

Friday, October 11, 2013

Week 6 start/sit and rankings

Greetings all. I've got a handful of start/sit links and rankings or projections for you to help prep your fantasy team for Week 6. Read on!