Greetings and welcome to the 2013 results of the fantasy football accuracy contest that I run each year in conjunction with the Fantasy Sports Trade Association (FSTA). This is my 7th year of the rankings contest and I am thrilled to once again report back on which sites' preseason rankings have proven most accurate. There were 59 participants in this year's contest and on Thursday night, the top sites were revealed at the FSTA's Winter Conference in Las Vegas.
Participants were asked to submit their top 25 QBs, 50 RBs, 50 WRs, and 20 TEs using a standard scoring system as listed below:
Passing Yards (25 yards per point)
Passing Touchdowns (4)
Rushing Yards (10 yards per point)
Reception Yards (10 yards per point)
Rushing & Receiving Touchdowns (6)
Passing Touchdowns (4)
Rushing Yards (10 yards per point)
Reception Yards (10 yards per point)
Rushing & Receiving Touchdowns (6)
Interceptions & Fumbles Lost (-2)
At the end of the regular NFL season, I gathered fantasy point totals from FFToday.com's Statistics Page for all players that scored any fantasy points and created an end-of-season ranking based on these actual results. I compared the end-of-season rankings with the rankings that each site submitted for the contest by merely taking the difference between the rankings, and then also squaring that difference to reward closer accuracy (or punish larger discrepancies, however you want to look at it). The site with the smallest difference between their rankings and the end-of-season rankings averaged across all four positions was the winner.
So without further ado, the winner this year was Mike Clay from ProFootballFocus.com. If Clay's name is familiar to you, well, it should be. His analysis and articles have been all over the best of the fantasy football universe this year and I dare say it's for good reason. But I'm also happy to report that last year's unofficial winner, Micah James of FF Magic Man, came in a very close second place this year. I can guarantee you that I'll be reading the FF Magic Man's rankings quite closely next year. Read on for the rest of the top results from 2013.
Most Accurate Rankings Across All Positions:
| Ranking | Site | AverageRank | ||
| 1 | ProFootballFocus.com | 12.25 | ||
| 2 | FF Magic Man | 12.5 | ||
| 3 | LeagueSafe Post Super | 16.75 | ||
| 4 | FantasyCouncil.com | 17.75 | ||
| 5 | Game Day Lineup | 18.5 | ||
| 6 | FantasySharks.com | 19 | ||
| 7 | 4for4.com | 19.25 | ||
| 8 | RotoExperts | 20.75 | ||
| 9 | FF Guidebook | 22 | ||
| 10 | Scott Pianowski, Yahoo | 22.25 | ||
| 10 | FFCalculator (ADP) | 22.25 | ||
| 12 | Dynasty League Football | 22.75 | ||
| 13 | Dalton Del Don, Yahoo | 23.75 | ||
| 14 | Fantasy Football Maniax | 24.25 | ||
| 15 | The Hazean | 24.5 |
Most Accurate Quarterback Rankings:
| Ranking | Site |
| 1 | Scott Pianowski, Yahoo |
| 2 | Pyromaniac.com |
| 3 | Draft Analyzer Ultimate |
| 4 | DobberFootball.com |
| 5 | Steve's Fantasy Advice |
| 6 | RotoExperts |
| 7 | LeagueSafe Post Super |
| 8 | Paul Charchian, LeagueSafe |
| 9 | 4for4.com |
| 10 | Fantasy Football Maniax |
Most Accurate Running Back Rankings:
| Rankings | Site |
| 1 | Dynasty League Football |
| 2 | FantasyCouncil.com |
| 3 | ProFootballFocus.com |
| 4 | Game Day Lineup |
| 5 | DraftSharks |
| 6 | Pyromaniac.com |
| 7 | William del Pilar |
| 8 | FantasyFootballNerd.com |
| 9 | 4for4.com |
| 10 | Mastersball.com |
Most Accurate Wide Receiver Rankings:
| Rankings | Site |
| 1 | FF Magic Man |
| 2 | ProFootballFocus.com |
| 3 | Pigskin Addiction |
| 4 | The Huddle |
| 5 | Nathan Zegura, CBSSports.com |
| 6 | Mike Nease, FantasyInsights.com |
| 7 | Dish Adams, FantasyInsights.com |
| 8 | FantasyFootballMagic.com |
| 9 | FantasyCouncil.com |
| 10 | FFCalculator (ADP) |
Most Accurate Tight Ends Rankings:
| Rankings | Site |
| 1 | Ask The Commish |
| 2 | FantasyTools.com |
| 3 | FantasySharks.com |
| 4 | ProFootballFocus.com |
| 5 | WhatIfSports.com |
| 6 | FantasyPros911 |
| 7 | FOX Sports |
| 8 | Pigskin Addiction |
| 9 | The Sports Forecaster (XML Team) |
| 10 | Fantasy Typhoon |
All of the 59 participants are listed below in alphabetical order:
| 4for4.com |
| Andy Behrens, Yahoo |
| Ask the Commish |
| Bloomberg Sports |
| Brad Evans, Yahoo |
| Brad Funston, Yahoo |
| Bruno Boys |
| Cheat Sheet War Room |
| Dalton Del Don, Yahoo |
| Dave Richard, CBSSports.com |
| Dish Adams, Fantasy Insights |
| DobberFootball.com |
| Draft Analyzer Ultimate |
| DraftSharks |
| Dynasty League Football |
| ESPN |
| Fantasy Football Sherpa |
| Fantasy Omatic |
| Fantasy Typhoon |
| FantasyCouncil.com |
| FantasyFootballMagic.com |
| FantasyFootballManiax |
| FantasyFootbalNerd.com |
| FantasyProAnalyst |
| FantasyPros911 |
| FantasySharks.com |
| FantasyTools.com |
| FF Guidebook |
| FF Magic Man |
| FFCalculator (ADP) |
| FFEngineer |
| FFStarters.com |
| FOX Sports |
| Game Day Lineup |
| Jamey Eisenberg, CBSSports.com |
| KFFL |
| LeagueSafe Post Super |
| Mastersball.com |
| Mike Nease, Fantasy Insights |
| Nathan Zegura, CBSSports.com |
| NFL.com |
| Paul Charchian, LeagueSafe |
| PickingPros.com |
| Pigskin Addiction |
| ProFootballFocus.com |
| Pyromaniac.com |
| RealTime Fantasy Sports |
| RotoExperts |
| Rotoprofessor |
| Rotoworld |
| Scott Pianowski, Yahoo |
| scoutPRO |
| Steve's Fantasy Advice |
| The Hazean |
| The Huddle |
| The Sports Forecaster (XML Team) |
| WhatifSports |
| William Del Pilar |
| Yahoo composite |
If you have any questions, let me know. Or if you submitted rankings and are curious as to how you ranked, just shoot me an e-mail.
(Note: many of you are used to seeing these results up on the NY Times' Fifth Down blog, but the Fifth Down is no more, as many of you may have already surmised!)
13 comments:
Curious about the absence of footballguys? Do you know why they did not participate in the rankings?
I have been following FF Magic Man will also start following Mike Clay.....Thanks for the heads up
do you know $90k Sun NFL
Contest has started by fanduel.
Sara
Thanks again for hosting this contest with the FSTA. Sorry to hear the NY Timee blog is no more. Still love yours here.
Happy to have two straight 9th place overall finishes among the great competition.
Sam "Slam" Hendricks, author Fantasy Football Guidebook
Yes they sure nailed it :)
Where are you? I love your blog. It always has a ton of great info. Some of us in dynasty leagues are getting geared up with the draft this week and OTA's getting started. I hope you are back soon. I have won 5 straight division titles. I need your help.
why were the footballguys left off this list? how did they rank last year?
This is very helpful information.
Thanks! for the share. :D
Play fantasy football online and win cash prizes daily. Build your own fantasy football team and enter the league online.
Excellent article, thanks for the information. We run our own fantasy football rankings - hopefully we can crack these top accuracy reports. It won't be the Top 5 QB/RB/WR that make the difference, everyone is pretty much the same. You win your league on the 3rd-10th rounds.
Draft Guide with Fantasy Football Rankings
Is there a way to access the full set of rankings of 2013 and all past years? My recollection is that you used to host them in Google Doc that readers could use to build a cheat sheet. Would also be good for research on accuracy.
Is there a random variable number that gives the overall number (+/-) of any given projected score and the actual points. Example. for every score thats projected 10, is the actual below or above 10.
Rather, for every projected point, what percent of that point on average will be made actual?
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