Friday, January 17, 2014

2013 Fantasy Football Accuracy Results Are In!

Greetings and welcome to the 2013 results of the fantasy football accuracy contest that I run each year in conjunction with the Fantasy Sports Trade Association (FSTA). This is my 7th year of the rankings contest and I am thrilled to once again report back on which sites' preseason rankings have proven most accurate. There were 59 participants in this year's contest and on Thursday night, the top sites were revealed at the FSTA's Winter Conference in Las Vegas.

Participants were asked to submit their top 25 QBs, 50 RBs, 50 WRs, and 20 TEs using a standard scoring system as listed below:


Passing Yards (25 yards per point)
Passing Touchdowns (4)
Rushing Yards (10 yards per point)
Reception Yards (10 yards per point)
Rushing & Receiving Touchdowns (6)
Interceptions & Fumbles Lost (-2)

At the end of the regular NFL season, I gathered fantasy point totals from FFToday.com's Statistics Page for all players that scored any fantasy points and created an end-of-season ranking based on these actual results. I compared the end-of-season rankings with the rankings that each site submitted for the contest by merely taking the difference between the rankings, and then also squaring that difference to reward closer accuracy (or punish larger discrepancies, however you want to look at it). The site with the smallest difference between their rankings and the end-of-season rankings averaged across all four positions was the winner.

So without further ado, the winner this year was Mike Clay from ProFootballFocus.com. If Clay's name is familiar to you, well, it should be. His analysis and articles have been all over the best of the fantasy football universe this year and I dare say it's for good reason. But I'm also happy to report that last year's unofficial winner, Micah James of FF Magic Man, came in a very close second place this year. I can guarantee you that I'll be reading the FF Magic Man's rankings quite closely next year. Read on for the rest of the top results from 2013.

Most Accurate Rankings Across All Positions:
Ranking       Site                                                AverageRank          
1 ProFootballFocus.com 12.25
2 FF Magic Man 12.5
3 LeagueSafe Post Super 16.75
4 FantasyCouncil.com 17.75
5 Game Day Lineup 18.5
6 FantasySharks.com 19
7 4for4.com 19.25
8 RotoExperts 20.75
9 FF Guidebook 22
10 Scott Pianowski, Yahoo 22.25
10 FFCalculator (ADP) 22.25
12 Dynasty League Football 22.75
13 Dalton Del Don, Yahoo 23.75
14 Fantasy Football Maniax 24.25
15 The Hazean 24.5


Most Accurate Quarterback Rankings:

Ranking                           Site                                          
1 Scott Pianowski, Yahoo
2 Pyromaniac.com
3 Draft Analyzer Ultimate
4 DobberFootball.com
5 Steve's Fantasy Advice
6 RotoExperts
7 LeagueSafe Post Super
8 Paul Charchian, LeagueSafe
9 4for4.com
10 Fantasy Football Maniax

Most Accurate Running Back Rankings:

Rankings                        Site                                 
1 Dynasty League Football 
2 FantasyCouncil.com
3 ProFootballFocus.com
4 Game Day Lineup
5 DraftSharks
6 Pyromaniac.com
7 William del Pilar
8 FantasyFootballNerd.com
9 4for4.com
10 Mastersball.com

Most Accurate Wide Receiver Rankings:

Rankings                        Site                                                  
1 FF Magic Man
2 ProFootballFocus.com
3 Pigskin Addiction
4 The Huddle
5 Nathan Zegura, CBSSports.com
6 Mike Nease, FantasyInsights.com
7 Dish Adams, FantasyInsights.com
8 FantasyFootballMagic.com
9 FantasyCouncil.com
10 FFCalculator (ADP)

Most Accurate Tight Ends Rankings:

Rankings                        Site                                                         
1 Ask The Commish
2 FantasyTools.com
3 FantasySharks.com
4 ProFootballFocus.com
5 WhatIfSports.com
6 FantasyPros911
7 FOX Sports
8 Pigskin Addiction
9 The Sports Forecaster (XML Team)
10 Fantasy Typhoon

All of the 59 participants are listed below in alphabetical order:


4for4.com
Andy Behrens, Yahoo
Ask the Commish
Bloomberg Sports
Brad Evans, Yahoo 
Brad Funston, Yahoo
Bruno Boys
Cheat Sheet War Room
Dalton Del Don, Yahoo
Dave Richard, CBSSports.com
Dish Adams, Fantasy Insights
DobberFootball.com
Draft Analyzer Ultimate
DraftSharks
Dynasty League Football
ESPN
Fantasy Football Sherpa
Fantasy Omatic
Fantasy Typhoon
FantasyCouncil.com
FantasyFootballMagic.com
FantasyFootballManiax
FantasyFootbalNerd.com
FantasyProAnalyst
FantasyPros911
FantasySharks.com
FantasyTools.com
FF Guidebook
FF Magic Man
FFCalculator (ADP)
FFEngineer
FFStarters.com
FOX Sports
Game Day Lineup
Jamey Eisenberg, CBSSports.com
KFFL
LeagueSafe Post Super
Mastersball.com
Mike Nease, Fantasy Insights
Nathan Zegura, CBSSports.com
NFL.com
Paul Charchian, LeagueSafe
PickingPros.com
Pigskin Addiction
ProFootballFocus.com
Pyromaniac.com
RealTime Fantasy Sports
RotoExperts
Rotoprofessor
Rotoworld
Scott Pianowski, Yahoo
scoutPRO
Steve's Fantasy Advice
The Hazean
The Huddle
The Sports Forecaster (XML Team)
WhatifSports
William Del Pilar
Yahoo composite

If you have any questions, let me know. Or if you submitted rankings and are curious as to how you ranked, just shoot me an e-mail.

(Note: many of you are used to seeing these results up on the NY Times' Fifth Down blog, but the Fifth Down is no more, as many of you may have already surmised!)

12 comments:

THECOOLESTDUDEEVA said...

Curious about the absence of footballguys? Do you know why they did not participate in the rankings?

Preeti said...

I have been following FF Magic Man will also start following Mike Clay.....Thanks for the heads up
do you know $90k Sun NFL
Contest has started by fanduel.

Sam Hendricks said...

Sara
Thanks again for hosting this contest with the FSTA. Sorry to hear the NY Timee blog is no more. Still love yours here.
Happy to have two straight 9th place overall finishes among the great competition.
Sam "Slam" Hendricks, author Fantasy Football Guidebook

Lyxol.com said...

Yes they sure nailed it :)

Anonymous said...

Where are you? I love your blog. It always has a ton of great info. Some of us in dynasty leagues are getting geared up with the draft this week and OTA's getting started. I hope you are back soon. I have won 5 straight division titles. I need your help.

Anonymous said...

why were the footballguys left off this list? how did they rank last year?

Chris Maguire said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Sally Sen said...

This is very helpful information.
Thanks! for the share. :D

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Anonymous said...

Excellent article, thanks for the information. We run our own fantasy football rankings - hopefully we can crack these top accuracy reports. It won't be the Top 5 QB/RB/WR that make the difference, everyone is pretty much the same. You win your league on the 3rd-10th rounds.

Draft Guide with Fantasy Football Rankings

Anonymous said...

Is there a way to access the full set of rankings of 2013 and all past years? My recollection is that you used to host them in Google Doc that readers could use to build a cheat sheet. Would also be good for research on accuracy.

Matt Korff said...

Is there a random variable number that gives the overall number (+/-) of any given projected score and the actual points. Example. for every score thats projected 10, is the actual below or above 10.

Matt Korff said...

Rather, for every projected point, what percent of that point on average will be made actual?