Tuesday, November 08, 2016

Streaming Defenses - Week 10

I'm an election results addict. I know some of you are, too, so I don't feel alone in this. I could blame it on growing up outside DC or on just relishing the drama. Hard to say, but I'll be honest: hard to even think about fantasy football right now. Fortunately for you all, Bob is magical and on it with this week's streaming defense article. Now I'm off to take deep breaths and jump back in to election results...

Welcome back fellow streamers. Well, it was a tough week for the highly owned, due to the fact that none of them played any juicy targets (in case you didn’t notice, targets are in red text). But the streamers had a bunch of tasty targets and took advantage. Highly owned only averaged 7.8 points this week compared to 13.5 points for the top streamers. So as you can see, as we progress through the season, strategic streaming defenses can make a big difference. 

We learned a couple of things this week due to the results. First, I’ve been drumming on this a bunch lately, so you better take heed. The Chargers are for real, and will continue to dominate on defense heading into the playoffs. You should pick them up and keep them because their schedule gets even better going forward. Second, the Cowboys are starting to fire on all cylinders, even defense. Sure they had an easy target this week, but the Cowboys are averaging double digits in the last four weeks, against good teams too, like Packers, Eagles and Bengals. And their schedule going forward is also favorable. So either participate or watch as others snap them up for a playoff run.

Week 9 Highly Owned
DEN
@OAK
100%
8/14
3
MIN
DET
98%
12
7
SEA
BUF
98%
12
9
PHI
@NYG
87%
11
7
KCC
JAC
86%
14
13
 Avg



7.8
Streams for Week 9
CAR
@LAR
75%
12
11
SDC
TEN
10%
10
19
GB
IND
44%
10
7
DAL
@CLE
15%
9
11
BAL
PIT
32%
9
16
MIA
NYJ
4%
8
17
TEN
@SDC
57%
6
1
 Avg



13.5

This week we have all of the top defenses back and playing, so there’s a lot to pick from this week. But remember, it’s targets and not track record when it comes to picking a good streaming defense, instead of stubbornly holding on to past defenses that just aren’t producing.
Week 10 Highly Owned
Team
OPP
%Owned
Proj Pts
Comments
DEN
@NOS
100%
10
Saints tend to give up points but only to tough Defs. Start the Broncos and expect your normal payback.
SEA
@NE
99%
6
Pats are 4th stingiest off against Defs. You have to start the Seahawks but temper expectations.
MIN
@WAS
98%
9
So which Min Def will show up this week? They've dropped off the last two weeks, many citing fatigue. But you have to start them even against a team that doesn't give up Def pts easily.
KC
@CAR
97%
13
CAR is the 3rd best team for giving up Def pts, and KC has been coming on. Start and enjoy the pts.
PHI
ATL
93%
10
ATL is the 3rd stingiest against Defs. And PHI has had two disappointing weeks. I like PHI at home, but not much upside.
CAR
KC
91%
8
CAR has been doing better lately but KC is stingy against Defs with their ball control style. Start 'em but temper your expectations.
ARI
SF
87%
16
Boy do I like this one. Top Def meets top target. Start with confidence and enjoy the upside.
NE
SEA
71%
8
Many held on to the PATs through the bye, so they count as a highly owned even at 71%. They have a good matchup at home. Expect their average Def outing.
Streams for Week 10
SD
MIA
39%
12
This is my favorite stream this week. SD is avging 13 pts/game since Bosa joined. And MIA can be generous, this is my #1 stream.
BAL
CLE
41%
12
And we have a surging DEF against one of our favorite targets. This one could get ugly. Ravens DEF is poised for another great week. Should be highly owned after this week. 2nd best stream.
LAR
@NYJ
65%
12
Jets are averaging giving 14 pts/game and over 16 pts/game to good Defs. RAMs can be good, but on the road let's look at a little less. Still the 3rd best Stream.
DAL
@PIT
57%
10
The Cowboys have averaged over 10 points in last 4 games.  Steelers gave up 16 points to BAL, expect some points from the 'new' DAL defense. 4th best stream.
CHI
@TB
2%
8/12
Down the list of streams but not out. Depending on availability of Winston, CHI could get some points even on the road. My 5th best stream with a floor of 8 points but a high ceiling.
I’ll give you a couple of honorable mentions here in case you can’t snag any of the above. Watch out for WAS getting some points against MIN, since the MIN run game is in shambles, and may be heading for target offense area. Also, ATL may surprise PHI. Even the Giants got 8 points from them last week, and they are having a tough time with receivers lately.

Finally, a few I didn’t include in spite of juicy targets: Jets against a generous Rams team, don’t do it. Some are predicting a good day for the Jets, but the only island in New York is Staten Island. Packers against TEN. Even though the Titans won’t be able to run against GB, they have found their stride through the air, so I don’t like the matchup. And finally, if the Jaguars had any kind of defense, I would have liked the matchup against HOU, but they don’t, ‘nuf said.