Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Streaming Defenses - Week 13



I hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving weekend. We hit the road and visited family in Columbus, Ohio, which is a city I like more and more every time we go. Saw a holiday light show in a state park that impressed our whole car from ages 3 to 87, and spur of the moment, we met possibly the best Santa I've ever seen. Great trip and now we begin the fun of Christmas in our house. But let's get to Bob and his weekly streaming D advice.  
It’s time for the run to the playoffs and I’m giving you bonus advice this week. Most leagues don’t allow trades after week 13 and a lot of them limit waivers. So now’s the time to pick up your best DEF for the playoffs. As such, I have compiled some data from FFToday. They have a great tool for looking at matchups in the next weeks.

I condensed it down to the best teams to own for the playoff weeks (14-16). And as always rank them for the highly owned and teams that may still be available. I present it below the Week 13 streams. Make sure you make your moves this week, if you haven’t already, and use these defenses to help you win the championships. 

But before you jump into the playoff data, here’s week 13.

Last week was a bad week for the highly owned. The matchups just weren’t there and it showed. While the streamers feasted on some great targets. Highly owned only averaged 7.63 points while the streamers topped 12 points average. Biggest disappointment for the highly owned had to be PHI, and I don’t like them down the stretch either. It’s time to drop PHI and grab a playoff streamer. How about them Giants? They’ve had a great run lately, but it’s about to come to an end, see below. And it’s been 4 weeks in a row for the Saints averaging double digit DEF points, with great playoff matchups.
 Week 12 Highly Owned
TEAM
OPP
%Owned
Proj Pts
Actual
SEA
@TBB
98%
11/14
11
KCC
@DEN
97%
11
15
ARI
@ATL
97%
6
6
DEN
KCC
96%
8
9
MIN
@DET
95%
8
6
NEP
@NYJ
95%
12
9
PHI
GB
83%
12
1
LAR
@NOS
81%
8
4
  Avg



7.63
Streams for Week 12
NYG
@CLE
48%
12
24
BAL
CIN
48%
12
12
BUF
JAC
57%
11
6
NOS
LAR
5%
10
13
MIA
SF
71%
10/14
8
SDC
@HOU
18%
10/14
13
  Avg



12.67

Here’s how I see this week’s matchups with an eye to the playoffs. Two of the highly owned are in trouble and should be benched but not dropped. MIN faces the stingiest offense in the league, bench them this week but stash them for the playoffs. And the Eagles? Just drop them, they’ve run out of their utility for the season. I like 5 streamers this week with warnings against two more that other sites are recommending.
Week 13 Highly Owned
Team
Opp
% Owned
Proj Pts
Comments
SEA
CAR
98%
11
SEA's Def is cruising along averaging about 10 pts/gm over the last four games. CAR has conceded 12 pts/game over the same timeframe. Many don't like this matchup this week but I do. 3rd best start of the week for highly owned
DEN
@JAC
97%
13
Big Def and easy target, this one gets the 2nd best start of the highly owned.
MIN
DAL
96%
2
Beware the Cowboys! MIN is a great Def but the 'Boys don't give up Def pts. DAL is the stingiest team of the league in giving up Def pts. Look elsewhere.
NEP
LAR
96%
14
This game is touted as the best matchup of the week, and I agree. Two starts for Goff, and double digit Def pts earned. Best start of the week for highly owned.
KC
@ATL
94%
6
Another tough matchup for a good Def. ATL is 5th stingiest giving up points to DEF. I would start KC but temper expectations.
ARI
WAS
92%
6
And yet another tough DEF matchup. WAS is the 4th stingiest and ARI is hurting on DEF lately. Start but temper.
PHI
@CIN
81%
4
The Eagles have earned exactly 1 point per game for the last two games. And one of them was against one of our targets. I don't know what has happened to the defense but I don't trust them any longer even against CIN. Look elsewhere.
Streams for Week 13
Team
Opp
% Owned
Proj Pts
Comments
MIA
@BAL
62%
10
I love the Dolphins going into the playoffs, and they have averaged over 13 pts/game the last four weeks. I think they have a good day against a run heavy offense. 1st best stream of the week.
WAS
@ARI
11%
10
WAS is surging, and ARI is a great target, I like the matchup this week. ARI will bleed some Def points this week. 2nd best stream.
SDC
TB
21%
10
I love the Chargers down the stretch and not a bad matchup this week either. The Bucs are surging but can be had on the road against a good Def. 3rd best stream.
NO
DET
22%
9
Break up the Saints DEF, they have avg'd over 11 pts/gm in their last 4 starts. But DET has been stingy lately. I think you pick them up for the playoffs if not this week. 4th best stream
GB
HOU
28%
8
With Matthews back again, I like the matchup. Will we see Osweiller again? 5th best stream.
OAK
BUF
44%
6
How much do you believe in momentum? OAK has a great playoff run, but BUF is stingy this week. You might pick them up if you don't have any other options but temper expectations.
DAL
@MIN
48%
2
Can DAL take advantage of an offense in turmoil? Not the way they've played in the last three games. I'd look elsewhere.
NYG
@PIT
56%
4
The Giants Def run is about to come to an end. Bad matchup this week and the rest of the way. It's been a nice run, but look elsewhere now.

Now on to the meat of this week’s article. Here’s how I see the playoff run thanks to the data from FFToday.
Highly Owned Going into Playoffs
Week
13
14
15
16
Average
Comment
SEA
CAR
@GB
LAR
ARI

If you banked on them all year, then here's your payoff. The best highly owned team for the playoffs.
31.80%
13.60%
%
144.30%
78.95%
MIN
DAL
@JAC
IND
@GB

Although a tough matchup Week 13, you must keep them for the playoffs.
-63.60%
63.60%
13.60%
13.60%
30.27%
NE
LAR
BAL
@DEN
NYJ

Good the rest of the way, if you have them keep them close to your heart on the way to the championship
%
-20.50%
104.50%
2.30%
28.77%
KC
@ATL
OAK
TEN
DEN

KC Def is back with Houston and poised for a great playoff run if they get by OAK.
-31.80%
-43.20%
0.00%
104.50%
20.43%
DEN
@JAC
@TEN
NE
@KC

Tough to drop them but the matchups aren't there.
63.60%
0.00%
-43.20%
-22.70%
-21.97%
ARI
WAS
@MIA
NO
@SEA

I don't believe in the ARI Def any longer, especially in Week 13, but hey, do you have any other Defs available?
-65.90%
-43.20%
13.60%
-13.60%
-14.40%
PHI
@CIN
WAS
@BAL
NYG

Drop these guys like a rock and look elsewhere for the playoffs.
-3.40%
-65.90%
-20.50%
-54.50%
-46.97%







Best Streams Going into Playoffs
Week
13
14
15
16
Average
Comment
TEN
Bye
DEN
@KC
@JAC

Can't use them for Week 13 and they look good for the playoffs, but they have disappointed before.
104.50%
-22.70%
63.60%
48.47%
MIA
@BAL
ARI
@NYJ
@BUF

I'll be taking them for the playoffs for those juicy matchups
-20.50%
144.30%
2.30%
-9.10%
45.83%
NO
DET
@TB
@ARI
TB

Break up the Saints Def, but before you do, stash them for the playoff run
-43.20%
-18.20%
144.30%
-18.20%
35.97%
SD
TB
@CAR
OAK
@CLE

Great championship matchup, but beware week 15.
-18.20%
31.80%
-43.20%
109.10%
32.57%
HOU
@GB
@IND
JAC
CIN

I don't know if I can recommend them lately, but they do have three great matchups.
13.60%
13.60%
63.60%
-3.40%
24.60%
WAS
@ARI
@PHI
CAR
@CHI

I love this stream for the playoffs, and especially week 13 to get you there.
144.30%
-9.10%
31.80%
36.40%
19.70%
OAK
BUF
@KC
@SD
IND

Another team I like down the stretch, and not a bad matchup for week 13
-9.10%
-22.70%
64.80%
13.60%
18.57%

So if you combine Week 13 recommendations with recommendations for the playoffs you have these teams to keep or pick up:

Highly owned: SEA, NE, and KC
Streaming or available: MIA, SD, and WAS

Happy streaming and let’s get to the playoffs.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Great analysis (I hope) - already had picked up Mia & Was for my playoff run ;-)

Sean McPhisto said...

You go dude.

Anonymous said...

Great stuff. What do you think of Bengals next week against Browns? I have SD (wks 13 & 16), thinking Texans week 15 against Jax.

Sean McPhisto said...

Bengals are a great start in Week 14 against the Browns. In fact, just about anyone against the Browns is a great start. SD is a little iffy this week, but I like their playoff schedule, especially week 16. So if you're already bound to the playoffs, go ahead and play them against TB but temper expectations. Texans are a good start against another one of our favorite targets in Week 15.

Anonymous said...

Play Cincinnati week 14 and Buffalo week 15...BOTH against Cleveland

Anonymous said...

I cant stash Minnesota should I drop them and pick up Miami