Greetings and happy Saturday night. I've got a guest post below from a fellow FFLibrarian reader, Jen Ryan. She's a self-described fantasy football stats junkie and brings us her thoughts for some last minute prep before tomorrow's games. Enjoy!
Hey all! I’m very excited for my first contribution here on the fflibrarian.com, and I’d like to thank Sara again for the opportunity. Kickoff is at 1PM tomorrow, so let’s dive right in!
Before you continue reading, if you have Percy Harvin you need to stop what you’re doing and bench him NOW! I’m sure you may have heard the news that he was sent packing over to the east coast. It was smooth to announce the trade during the Friday afternoon news dump, the slowest of news hours, but thanks to Jay Glazer’s big break, the internet pretty much exploded over the news. So what does this mean for fantasy? Well a few things. First, the Jets already played this week, so he is of no use to you in week 7. If you haven’t already dropped him (he’s pretty much been invisible since his week one 7 for 59 yard receiving/4 for 41 yard rushing stat line. I know he fooled you with that week 2 touchdown against San Diego to validate your likely 6th8th round pick spent on him), you need to subscribe to the “wait and see” approach until we know what the crumbling Jets will do with him. From a fantasy perspective keep in mind that the regular season is typically 13 games. Percy has now become unavailable to you for 3 of those games. He had a bye week 4 with the Seahawks, is literally unplayable this week, and still has the Jets bye week 11. Is he worth it? The jury is out on that one.
It’s week 7, which means we are half way through the fantasy regular season. If you are 6-0 or 51 then that’s great! You’re almost guaranteed a playoff spot, and you’re doing something right, so keep it going! If you’re 4-2 or 3-3 then now is the time to make those moves you need to make to improve your team so you can go on a run. Now, if you are 2-4, 1-5, or the dreaded 0-6, do not give up hope yet! There is still time. It may seem desperate, but you could be a savvy waiver wire pick up or blockbuster trade away from getting back up there in fantasy relevance. Don’t quit: it says something about your character, and it will probably anger the rest of your league. Take risks, gamble a little, and start chipping away at your losing record.
Here are two start/sit links, in addition to the links Sara has already provided, that you should check out before finalizing your week 7 line up:
- EPSN's Matthew Berry's Love/Hate Week 7 - if fantasy football was it’s own nation, then Matthew Berry is the president, who happens to be exempt from the two term rule because he is one of the four fathers of this game we love to play and he isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Not only is he brilliant, but if you enjoy a good read, this is the site for you. He knows how to write, google him!
- numberFire.com's Start/Sit Week 7 - there isn’t enough room here for me to tell you all the reasons why you should be checking out numberFire.com. There is a wealth of fantasy knowledge there, and the site’s owner JJ Zachariason developed an insane algorithm that takes pretty much every stat available to determine “Net Expected Points”. There is a link on the site that breaks it down, and it’s not easy to understand, but who cares! It works!
- numberFire.com's Questions Forum - sensing a trend here? I can’t get enough of numberFire! This section of the site is where I turn when I have done all my research and just can’t seem to make a decision. When in doubt, I poll the people! This forum allows you to post questions, answer questions for fellow fantasy junkies, and earn “reputation points” based on the analysis you provide for your new internet friends that you will make on here. No expert advice just other players sharing their knowledge. Not sure who you should flex? Can’t decide on a trade offer? Curious who is the best player for the rest of the season? Not sure who to pluck off waivers? Somewhere in the questions forum there is someone just waiting to answer your burning questions!
- Junkyard Jake's Target Stats - if you’re like me, then a small statistics nut lives deep inside of you. And if you’re even more like me, the #1 stat that drives your fantasy decisions is red zone targets. Targets = touch downs = points = wins = happy Sunday! If you didn’t consult this chart, how else would you know that Rueben Randle is tied for 2nd most red zone targets (13) with Brandon Marshall, just behind Jordy Nelson’s 15 targets? Junkyard Jake also does you the favor of giving you total targets, weekly targets, and catch percentages.
- Fantasysharks.com - in addition to their articles and projections, Fantasy Sharks also has a great Fantasy Sharks Line Up Coach. It’s very simple: input your players, and the Line Up Coach provides information you will need for each player's match up each week. And best of all, it’s totally free! All you need to do is sign up.
- And finally, if you’re willing to spend $29.95 up front, and $24.95 annually after that, then The Huddle: Fantasy Football is where you should pony up that money. I am a subscriber and I can vouch that it is worth every penny. In-depth analysis, customized scoring rankings, daily articles, and the daily email report make it more than worth it. Now’s the time to join, too. They are offering $15 off the membership if you sign up now and use the coupon code CHAMP2014.
- Chris Raybon - an absolute statistics machine, and if you are into daily fantasy sports, he’s a genius in that department.
- Manuel Retweet - the co-founder of 2mugsff.com, he is very funny, and he is also one of the only people who answers me when I have questions!
- Ryan Boser - a draft expert who also provides insightful, humorous fantasy commentary.
- Allie Fontana - you may have read her work, or heard her on many a podcast or radio show. She is one of the queens in this male dominated field, she knows her stuff, and she is perfectly quirky!
- Me! - yes, me! While I don’t “tweet” any “expert advice”, I love to chat with anyone and everyone on all things fantasy. We can help each other out! If nothing else, my feed is nothing but fantasy follows so you can get information through me!
- Another twitter tidbit...It is important to follow the local beat writers for the teams of your players. They know it all, they have a relationship with players in the locker room, and they almost always know things before the rest of us. More importantly, they usually are the ones to break injury news. Got a guy on your team who is listed as questionable or as a game time decision? Look up his local beat writer, I’d be willing to bet the writer knows whether or not your guy will suit up and give it a go.