Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Waiver Wire Advice: Week 9

Hi all. I'm sitting here getting easily distracted by the leaves that are falling like snow at our house in Knoxville. Between the unreal quantity of leaves we'll soon have in our yard, the many, many HTTR posts in my Facebook feed from last night's game (remember, I grew up in northern VA!), and the Halloween prep going on in our house, fall has finally arrived despite the fact that our thermometer reads 74 right now. If this is fall in the south, I'll take it. Winter's cold will be here soon enough. Anyway, this week will bring us many more guest posts and today marks another one from guest writer Michael. Read on for his helpful waiver wire tips to aid your squad in Week 9.

I have a six year old daughter that, as many kids are wont to do, will slyly make sure we make a pass through the toy section at the store when we’re out shopping. When I tell her that we can “just look,” that goes in one ear and out the other. No sooner are those words out of my mouth than she’s grabbed a $90 Barbie castle off the shelf and asked if we can buy it. I will quickly dash her hopes by reiterating my earlier “just looking” proclamation. Having that wonderful quality of persistence that many children have, she will continue to pull items of decreasing value off the shelf in hopes that I will change my mind and buy her something. By the time I’ve rebuffed her pleas multiple times, she’s literally just pulling the first thing she sees off the shelf and asking me to buy it, because at this point she wants to come away from the store with something, anything. Being well past the point of asking for anything that she might actually need or use, she’d be satisfied with a box of staples by the time it was all said and done.

I wouldn’t dare compare fantasy owners to petulant children, but the lesson here is don’t treat your waiver wire this way. Many fantasy owners simply can’t resist the allure of the waiver wire, and they feel they must get something every week, without too much thought of why they’re doing it.

I have nothing against being aggressive on the waiver wire, but owners should be selectively aggressive and make each move for a reason. With 8 weeks in the books, we are coming down the home stretch of the regular season in most fantasy leagues, and owners should be constructing their rosters with an eye on the future. Examine which weeks you will need to replace players on bye weeks and which players you’ll likely be plugging in.

When you’re looking at making a waiver wire move, ask yourself if it really helps your roster. Are you likely to ever feel good about starting this player? Is the player any more valuable than the one you’re dropping him for? Is this a player that I want to keep out of the hands of an opponent? If the answer to all these questions is no, then what’s the point?

Don’t forget, as obvious as this might sound, your goal is to win your league. Think ahead and construct your roster with only winning your championship in mind. Eschew depth for upside, and feel comfortable dropping players with low ceilings that offer nothing more than emergency depth.

Two quick tidbits, and we’re on to the links:

Josh Gordon is only owned in 16% of ESPN leagues. He won’t be eligible to return until week 12, but if at all possible, I’d suggest making room for him and picking him up now. It will be hard to expect the video-game numbers he put up last season after all this time off, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he does. Even if you’re stacked at WR, I know I wouldn’t want to see him in my opponent’s lineup in the playoffs.

This rookie crop of WR’s might be the best ever. Martavis Bryant and Donte Moncrief will both be popular names on the waiver wire this week after breakout performances, but don’t forget about Davante Adams. The Green Bay rookie is only 2.4% owned in ESPN leagues. He hasn’t had that one big game yet that makes everyone take notice, but he has a consistent role (7 catches on 9 targets last week) in a pass-heavy offense with one of the best QBs in the league. He has value now, but if Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb were to miss any time, his value would go through the roof.

And now on to the links…..

Brad Evans of Yahoo thinks Bobby Rainey will soon be back to being fantasy relevant.

Doug Coutts of Fantasy Sharks recommends grabbing another Buccaneer, rookie Charles Sims.

Nik Bonaddio from Numbersfire advises we take a second look at Denard Robinson, who has performed well in back-to-back games, if he wasn’t claimed last week.

Christopher Harris of ESPN sees Jonas Gray stepping into Stevan Ridley’s role in New England.

Adam Levitan from Rotoworld lists Donte Moncrief as the top WR pickup of the week.

Find me on Twitter for any questions or feedback!

Here’s hoping your week 9 transactions are fruitful.

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