Monday, December 01, 2014

Streaming Defenses: Week 14

Hope you had a wonderful holiday weekend spent with family and friends. I know we're all still recovering a bit in the FFLibrarian household from a non-stop weekend. Bob is back with a post on defenses to pick up for Week 14. Enjoy!


Well the regular season is nearly done, and some of you may have to make do with the players you have now. But a lot of leagues allow waivers during the playoffs, and turn off trades. So in the spirit, here are some plays for this week.

What a Week 13 we had. The stream worked very well, particularly if you picked up the Rams at the last second. Sheesh, 31 points? Nope, I didn’t see that many but it was Oak. And did anybody see the Jaguars?  Nope, only owned by 0.5% of teams.  Here’s the wrap up.

Week 13



Top Performers

Team
Projected
Actual

Rams*
31
Dolphins
14
TBD

Jaguars
26
Giants
12
12

Seahawks
19
Rams
12
31

Bills
19
      Average
12.67
21.5

Broncos
19
      AVG all teams

10.7



      % Highly 0wned

11.8



      Rec % owned

13.8



      Bad % Owned

4




The average of all DEFs for the entire year is now 9.75. Week 13 average for all teams was 10.7, so a big week for defenses. The highly owned averaged only slightly better at 11.8, largely because of poor performances by the Chiefs, Patriots, and Packers, the same teams that were marked as sits for the week. The highly owned and recommended averaged 13.8 points, but the streamers outdid that average with 21.5, so far!!! So again, if I tell ya to sit one of the highly owned teams, take my advice and look to the streamers. This week there are a lot of matchups between highly owned and targeted teams, so fewer opportunities.  Let’s have a look. 

Player
Pts
Avg
% Owned
Opp
Comment
Seahawks
125
10.4
95%
@PHI
4th best start, could really disrupt PHI
Cardinals
148
12.3
90%
KC
Start, but temper expectations, KC doesn't give up DEF pts easily
Eagles
181
15.1
87%
SEA
Start, temper expectations, but may be some upside
Texans
143
11.9
87%
@JAC
1st best start, geez this could get ugly, lots of points
49ers
133
11.1
87%
@OAK
3rd best start, another ugly matchup, lots of points
Bills
168
14
86%
@DEN
Bad matchup, don't start the Bills
Dolphins
138
12.5
82%
BAL
Start, temper expectations, but I would start the Dolphins at home
Lions
139
11.6
81%
TB
2nd best start, another lopsided matchup, lots of points
Patriots
132
11
80%
@SD
Start, but temper expectations, SD can put some points up
Colts
127
10.6
69%
@CLE
Bad matchup, CLE is stingy giving up DEF pts
Rams
127
10.6
69%
@WAS
5th best start, Rams are hot now






Vikings
130
10.8
25%
NYJ
1st best stream, after what they did to CAR, should be a cakewalk against NYJ
Giants
87
7.2
40%
@TEN
2nd best stream, TEN is without a QB now, and the Giants should see red
Cowboys
99
8.2
20%
@CHI
3rd best stream, the Boys wake up this week against a generous CHI
Chiefs
108
9
62%
@ARI
4th best stream, KC is good enough to dismantle the ARI off

There are going to be some really big points put up by the Texans, Lions and Rams this week, due to matchups with generous teams like JAC, WAS and TB. But they can’t be considered streams since they are highly owned. I don’t like the Bills and Colts matchups. Bills playing in DEN, no thanks. Colts playing in CLE, too many things can go wrong here, and if they start Manziel, they could be chasing him all day long. Leave both on the bench. Instead, go with one of the following:

The Vikings just mashed CAR, and this week they get the hapless Jets at home. That’s a great matchup, and may have some upside. Let’s look for 14 points with upside.

The Giants put up respectable points against the Jags, and should be pretty pissed. With their starting QB out for a week, the Giants should feast on the Titans for 12 points.

The Cowboys looked awful last week, but they always seem to rebound. Chicago gives up the most DEF points in the league, look for the Boys to take advantage and post 12 points or more.

The Chiefs had a tough day against DEN and only scored 4 defensive points. But that’s why you don’t start Defs against offensive juggernauts. ARI is no longer an offensive juggernaut, in fact, they are fading fast and I don’t see them getting any better with their bell cow Ellington hurt. The Chiefs take advantage for 12 points.


No comments: