Tuesday, August 18, 2015

2015 average position rankings

As requested, I've brought back my annual average position rankings spreadsheet. I've been compiling this list since 2007 and it sounds like many of you still find value in it, so I keep cranking it out each year. Here's hoping you find it helpful on draft day!

Yesterday I gathered Top 200 overall preseason rankings (or Top 150 as the case may be) from 12 different experts/sites and averaged them together to create a consensus ranking. The sites I drew from are: CBSSports.com (both Jamey Eisenberg and Dave Richard), The Fake Football, Yahoo, SI, FantasyPros, FFCalculator's ADP, Scout, The Football Girl, ESPN (Matthew Berry), NFL.com, and RealTime Fantasy Sports. These are all rankings for standard leagues, not PPR. One day when I find I have copious amounts of time, I'll do a PPR list, too, but hey that might be decades off, right? I've included the standard deviation for each player's ranking so that you have a sense of how much consensus there is on a player's ranking. So the lower the standard deviation, the more of a consensus there is on the ranking for that player. I find this extra bit of information helpful when debating between players.

So here is your 2015 average position rankings spreadsheet - if you need it e-mailed to you instead, just send me an e-mail and I'll try and get it out to you within 24 hours. Let me know if you find any errors or have any questions!

9 comments:

Mike said...

Thanks! After starting to try to do something similar, I really appreciate the amount of work this takes.

Are you planning on updating the data at all as we get closer to the start of the season (e.g., as players get hurt or camp reports/preseason performance is taken into account). My league doesn't draft for 3 more weeks, so this might be out of date by then (although likely not by much).

Pieter said...

Really cool. I love stuff like this. Maybe someone could check my math, but if you did...

avg + 2.32 * std

That would give you a 99% confidence interval (assuming normal distribution of demand), meaning that 99% of the time, the player would be drafted by that pick. So, in the case of Peterson, he's not going past 5 (5.08), but for CJ Anderson, there's more variability, and he could go until pick 21 (21.4).

This 99% confidence interval might allow you to say "Well, if I wait until PIck ##, he's gone." (But it wouldn't be good to assume they WILL last that long.)

Just some thoughts. Not sure if the math is even valid. Great stats, though. Glad I found your blog.

KEVIN said...

SINCE A VERY,VERY HIGH % OF LEAGUES ARE NOW PPR..........WOULD IT POSSIBLY BE MORE PRUDENT TO DO YOUR "AVERAGE POSITION RANKINGS" IN THAT FORMAT. LOVE YOUR BLOG AND THANKS FOR WRITING IT, AS SO MANY DO, JUST REALLY HOPING FOR THIS CHANGE IN ANY UPCOMING/FURTHER RANKINGS.......AGAIN THANKS FOR ALL YOUR EFFORTS!!!!!!!!!

RS said...

You are the best.

Courtney said...

Yay! I wasn't sure if you were going to get it posted before my draft! Now to color code it to the draft kit....

Anonymous said...

I found this too late last year, but it was one I put in my Bookmarks for this year. This takes the guessing out of who said what, etc.

I would love an updated version before my daft on Sat. Aug. 29th. I'm not sure if you just put one out per year, or you update as the preseason weeks go on.

Fantasy Football Librarian said...

Am hoping to get an update done by the end of the week. Or might just create a PPR one. Any opinions on that? Update standard scoring sheet OR create new one for PPR?

Anonymous said...

PPR would be best! Most leagues are PPR now.
Thanks from Asheville

dwderr said...

PPR would be awesome. Thank you for putting these together, you've now helped me for years.