Wednesday, October 21, 2015

2015 Streaming Defenses: Week 7

Bob is back with his streaming defense articles - I know you all have missed him. Wait no longer!


Hello folks, I’m back from a vacation in sunny Scottsdale AZ, but still recovering from bronchitis that I got on my last two days there. That’s gonna be my excuse for missing last week’s article and I’m sticking to it. And looking back I’m glad I didn’t make any huge predictions, because it was a very strange week for defenses. The top 5 were: MIA, PHI, DEN, NOS, and HOU. Notice only DEN and PHI are highly owned. I’m going to have to suspend my bias against PHI at this point. But I don’t think many saw MIA and NOS as savior streamers last week. There were still some believers in HOU, owned at 76%, but that was their best performance to date.

Take a look at the top 5 generous offenses we have: CHI in 1st, SF in 2nd, CLE in 3rd, SEA in 4th, and DET in 5th. It makes you consider your targets a little more carefully. JAC proved a good target last week, as did WAS, but they are the 11th and 10th most generous, respectively, at this point. So we have to look more closely at the matchups this week. Last week sobered us up as to locking into our targets.

So what does this week look like? Here are a couple of links you can use to help you sift through the quagmire. As usual, my analysis, may or may not align with the pros.



Here are the ownership and projections for Defs this week of the ‘highly owned’ defenses. Highly owned being better than 75% this week.
Highly Owned Defs
Team
Opp
Proj
Owned
Comments
SEA
@SF
9.43
100%
SF gives up the 2nd most points to DEFs, and SEA needs to right the ship. They will do it with Def, start with confidence
ARI
BAL
9.17
98%
ARI is highly owned based on AVG points scored, but it is a bit deceiving since most points came on only two games. BAL is stingy giving up DEF points, 11th least points given up, I'd temper my expectations.
DEN
Bye
0
96%
The top Def is not available this week, ouch
GB
Bye
0
91%
The 5th best Def is not available this week, another ouch.
BUF
@JAC
8.89
90%
BUF is in London and there's a bit of turmoil with the DEF coaching staff, look for some changes to return to early season form and put a hurt on a Bortles who was harassed constantly by a weak HOU pass rush last week.
NE
NYJ
7.5
87%
This should be a good week for NE, they are planning on forcing the Jets to pass, and you know what happens then…start 'em.
PHI
@CAR
7.55
78%
OK, I'm a little biased against the Eagles DEF I admit, but I don't see them catching Cam. I'd temper my expectations and that's as far as I can go on this team.
STL
CLE
9.86
78%
STL is heating up again and they are at home against a team that will tend to drop back a lot. CLE is the 3rd most generous to DEFs, I like this matchup this week, start 'em.
CAR
PHI
8.33
78%
You saw what WAS did against PHI last game just think what a seasoned DEF will do, start 'em.

So I like only five of highly owned this week, but here are some juicy streams that could outperform and one I would avoid.
Team
Opp
Proj
Owned
Comment
HOU
@MIA
8.29
67%
I think this is a trap game. I'd pick MIA as a defense this week before HOU. Don't fall for one week performance against a weak offensive line. Stay away.
WAS
TB
7.87
4%
WAS is still not owned like they should be. This is a great matchup at home against a good target. Give them a start.
PIT
@KC
7.32
17%
KC is in ruins, and the PIT Def will take advantage of it, give them a start this week.
ATL
@TEN
6.84
32%
Mariota is taking a lot of hits lately. ATL laid an egg on Def last week, but I like a rebound this week.
MIN
@DET
6.62
33%
DET won last week against a weak DEF that still got 8 points, watch what MIN does this week to Stafford, ouch.

That’s it for this week. Keep reading and keep streaming. Remember, every week there’s always one DEF on the waiver list that can come through for you that week. It’s just knowing which one it is….

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