Wednesday, November 11, 2015

2015 Streaming Defenses: Week 10

Bob is back with his defensive brilliance - read and enjoy!
 

As advertised, Week 9 was going to be a challenge to Defs and that proved to be true. Not only were we missing some strident Defs, the ones that were left didn’t have many great matchups. The result was the lowest average Def points for the year. Average for the year is now at 9.45, last week was 7.5! Average total Def points per week is 278, last week the total was 195. So if you were disappointed last week, you weren’t alone. 

The top two recommended only got 8 points apiece, STL and DEN. The 3 highly owned that had tempered expectations did no better, with GB posted its second egg in a row. We have to wonder what’s happening in GB on both sides of the ball. 

The shining stars however belonged to some of the streams. The recommended streams averaged 12.2 points, with both NY teams posting double digits. ATL had the least points at 8 which equaled the two highly owned recommended. The 2 desperate picks turned out as truly desperate, with only 2 and 5 points garnered. So it was definitely a good week for streams.

So what does this week look like? Here are some links you can use to help you sift through week 10. As usual, my analysis, may or may not align with the pros: 
Here are the ownership and projections for Defs this week of the ‘highly owned’ defenses. Highly owned being better than 80% this week. The highly owned are slated to do well this week, so start ‘em if you got ‘em.
Highly Owned
Team
OPP
Yahoo Pts
Owned
Comments
STL
CHI
9.36
97%
The Rams are still the 3rd best defense leading in INTs and Sacks, and the Bears are the 5 most generous. Bears have given up 3 TDs to special teams as well. With STL at home this is the 2nd best start of the week.
DEN
KC
9.01
97%
The Broncos continue to terrorize Offs, even stingy ones. KC is a very conservative Off, so this is going to be another one of those challenges, but the Chiefs are giving up some sacks. Look for another good week from the #1 Def. 4th best start.
NE
@NYG
7.08
96%
The Pats can be hot and cold. The Giants just don't make many mistakes, and the Pats make hay against good matchups. This is not one, start them but temper your expectations.
SEA
ARI
6.33
95%
This is not last year's SEA. Did you know they only have 3 picks this year? And Palmer is a veteran. I don't like this matchup, but since SEA is at home, I'll give the 12th man the benefit of the doubt. Start but temper expectations, with some down side if ARI gets up early.
PHI
MIA
9.85
87%
OK I'm a believer. The Eagles have really picked up their defense lately, averaging almost 15 points in their last 4 outings. MIA can be had and with PHI at home and looking for the Division win, this is the 5th best start.
ARI
@SEA
8.56
87%
SEA isn't that great a target but they have their issues on the OFF line. ARI is 5th against the run and SEA has some running issues as well. Look for a big day for the ARI Def holding SEA to less than 20 pts.
CAR
@TEN
9.83
85%
#1 target, CAR 4th in sacks, TEN 2nd most sacks, #1 matchup, very safe start
GB
DET
8.81
84%
GB has been failing on DEF lately, but this week it's DET. DET is in shambles with talk of trading Stafford and even Megatron, wow. DET is giving up the most INTs in the league, and playing in the frozen tundra, start GB with confidence.
BUF
@NYJ
6.72
81%
Bills do well against prime targets. The Jets are not one of them. Conservative with ball control, the Jets just are not a good target. I would look elsewhere

With 8 recommended starts of the highly owned, there isn’t much to choose from for this week’s streams, so I’m only giving you 3 locks to stream, with a desperate one for those without any other options.
Week 9 Best Streams
PIT
CLE
8.01
42%
CLE is the 3rd most generous DEF this year no matter which QB starts. PIT at home makes this the 3rd best start of the week. Start the improving PIT Def with confidence.
NYJ
BUF
7.29
73%
I have this as the 9th best start. The Jets are definitely better at home than abroad. I like the Jets keeping their wild card spot this week.
CIN
HOU
7.74
72%
The Bengals Def is quietly averaging 10 points a game. Against a bad offense at home, I like CIN to continue with double digit Def pts.
BAL
JAC
7.14
33%
JAC is averaging giving up over 12 points a game is the last 4 outings. BAL is a terrible DEF, but JAC is just too generous. If you're desperate, start BAL but temper expectations.

The streams are listed in order I think they will score, in spite of the matchups. That’s the best I can do for you this week with only 3 recommended streams, but most of you should have the highly owned and recommended this week, so party on!

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