Wednesday, November 04, 2015

2015 Streaming Defenses: Week 9



Bob is baaaack! He's got thoughts and deep wisdom on defenses this week, which I definitely need help with since I'm a Seattle girl this year. So let's read on.
It’s the dreaded Week 9, six teams on Bye, including the ARI and SEA Defs. Heck, even the Chiefs are missing and becoming a force on Def. Along with that, two other notable Defs, GB and CAR, are facing each other this week, and neither team gives up Def points easily. What’s a girl to do? (I was asking Sara, not me, I’m a man…)

So let’s get to it and I’ll try to show some enthusiasm in the face of distress. First, as usual, I’m big on accountability, so how’d we do last week? It was a pretty good week for the highly owned and recommended. SEA, CAR, ARI, and STL all did well, but they were supposed to, given the weak opponents for each. NE surprised, and are looking like a juggernaut now. Did you know they are leading in sacks? And I was flat out wrong about DEN, but I don’t think anyone saw that beat down coming. 

The streams were a mixed bag. Four of them did well, but the Jets and GB were a disaster. Didn’t see that one coming. And my bonus pick of the Texans paid off in spades. But alas, they too, are on a Bye this week.
So what does this week look like? Here are some links you can use to help you sift through week 9. As usual, my analysis, may or may not align with the pros.

Here are the ownership and projections for Defs this week of the ‘highly owned’ defenses. Highly owned being better than 80% this week. There are only 2 highly owned recommendations this week, with 3 warnings on expectations.
Highly Owned
Team
OPP
Owned
Yahoo Pts
Comments
SEA
BYE
100%
0
Bye week keep them stashed but need a stream
ARI
BYE
99%
0
Bye week keep them stashed but need a stream
STL
@MIN
98%
8.19
STL is 4th best defense and front seven will contain AP, forcing passing situations for MIN. Start 'em.
DEN
@IND
95%
8.87
Best of the highly owned matchups, IND can't pass protect, start w/confidence
CAR
GB
90%
5.46
After what DEN did to GB, I'm going to suggest you start, but temper expectations because GB is still greedy giving up points to Defs, and will make adjustments from last week.
GB
@CAR
88%
7.64
What happened to GB last week? They have another tough matchup this week, CAR is the 10th stingiest, temper expectations.
NE
WAS
88%
8.39
11th best start, and WAS is vulnerable on the road, but stingy with Def pts, NE is second in sacks, start NE but temper expectations, and you may see some upside from an energized NE Def

I like only two of highly owned this week, so I give you five streams this week and two more if you have no other options, because I’m generous like that. Besides, it’s a tough week with 2 top Defs out and another that is on the rise.
Week 9 Best Streams
ATL
@SF
64%
8.17
Number 1 matchup, SF is #2 target, in complete disarray, may have new QB, start ATL looking to get back on track with upside.
CIN
CLE
33%
8.15
Number 6 matchup, CLE is 3rd best target, with either QB this is a good stream, with upside at home.
NYJ
JAC
70%
7.94
Number 7 best matchup, Jets were embarrassed last week, as the week before. Turns out the Jets amass points against poor offenses and falter against good ones. JAC is a poor offense, start with confidence.
NYG
@TB
39%
8.14
Number 2 matchup, TB is 4th most generous, NYG is 7th best defense and leads the league in INTs.
PHI
@DAL
70%
7.18
Number 4 best matchup, DAL is still without Romo, this is a safe stream.
MIN
STL
60%
6.47
Number 5 matchup, 10th best target, 10th best Def, MIN is 2nd against Pts, but with STL running the ball well, you may want to temper expectations.
NO
TEN
4%
6.12
Number 8 best matchup, TEN has risen to #1 target and NO is improving, start if Mettenberger plays, I'd pass if Mariota returns.

The streams are listed in order I think they will score, in spite of the matchups. That’s the best I can do for you this week. Remember, every week there’s always one DEF on the waiver list that can come through for you that week. Last week I said it would be Green Bay…oops. This week watch what the Falcons do to a team that is imploding.

9 comments:

Shan and Tim said...

During most seasons, around this time, and my roster pretty much set, I'll lock down to 1 or 2 D/STs and rotate based on matchups. Sure enough, I'll have ATL/NE for the rest of the season in one league and NE/KC in another. your thoughts on this strategy?

GOAT said...

All I can say is that I like ur strategy :D I have ATL/NE in one league but if ATL isn't playing well vs Gabbert... What is ur ROS strategy for ATL/NE?
Mine would be...
Week9: really a coinflip for me right now
Week10: ATL bye... NE@NYG...not the best matchup here for many fantasypoints!?...
Week11: ATLvsIND and NEvsBUF...if Luck continuous to struggle->ATL
Week12: ATLvsMIN and NE@DEN...again not easy but at the moment I say ATL
Week13: ATL@TB and NEvsPHI...if philly continuous to play like this I go with NE
Week14: ATL@CAR and NE@HOU...NE
Week15: ATL@JAC and NEvsTEN...NE
Week16: ATLvsCAR and NE@NYJ...hmmm maybe a better option to stream

after Week 12/13 I would drop ATL and hopefully find something for Week16 :D

Shan and Tim said...

Yup thanks :). My ATL/NE league is setup such that you can't have negative points (don't ask) so we're rolling NE week 10, but there's a chance we could dump ATL for PIT.

We were honestly leaning the other way in wk 12 (Peyton) but we'll have time to judge....both good options.

If we make wk 16 title we'll be thrilled - lots of jelly beans at stake - and will make a GTD. Today, we'd pick ATL since CAR offense has low upside and ATL seems stronger against the run, but if Geno or Bryce Petty are QBing and the Pats are 14-0....

GOAT said...

okok wk12 really depends on "how good/bad is Peyton really this year"... I'm in a 12man league and I was only lucky to get the Pats(first time in years I used my high waiver-priority for a Def) normally I love to stream D/K but my predictions weren't on point this year :D so I decided to roll with the Pats... yeah I think I would take PIT over ATL, ATL isn't a strong D imo but made some nice fantasypoints in good matchups... my only other streaming options instead of ATL could be(available on waivers at the moment) Tampa, also made some nice points in good matchups... Saints for Week10 @WAS maybe a good gamble(easy schedule as well) and not really much else... MIA/HOU MAYBE! for 1-2 games...

I'm 4-4... but there is still some hope :D this week is crucial!
Can't really decide how much I like or don't like my team(s) this year haha
Bortles, Cutler(only this week)
Ivory, L. Murray, D. Murray, Ryan Mathews, C.J.
Julio, Crabtree, LaFell, J. Matthews
Olsen
Gould
NE/ATL

Good luck for the rest of the season! I would LOVE to see my team in wk 16 :D

GOAT said...

+ and I'm still not sure about this week... maybe the 49ers are playing a "short pass-short run-punt game"... not many points but maybe not many TOs either... NE is going to lead... like 35-0 in the first half :D so maybe Kirk throws some INT(SACK, SACK, SACK)

Jake Sanders said...

If you had or had wanted to gamble would you drop Minn. for the Giants?

GOAT said...

Giants D would only be a ok-good play for this week... you cant use them in wk10(NE) & wk11(bye) but MINvsSTL is a good matchup for the Vikings hunting Pick Foles :D

Sean McPhisto said...

Shan and Tim, I like keeping 2 defenses when they're good ones at this time of year. I do the same thing. But I also look at the playoff time matchups, to make sure the two I have are going to have great matchups during the playoffs. Of the top 10 Defs that have the best playoff matchups, I'd go with Jets and Packers...

Sean McPhisto said...

Sorry I'm so late on responding to comments, a little shocked there were so many this last week. I'll be sure to watch more closely this week. Thanx for all the comments.