Friday, November 20, 2015

2015 Streaming Defenses: Week 11

Hello hello from a busy week in Knoxville. My mom is in town visiting and we're preparing for the upcoming holidays (bets on whether or not either of my boys will actually eat anything on the Thanksgiving table? Outlook is grim) and I've gotten a bit behind here on the blog. I've got Bob's streaming defense thoughts for you now (sorry for the delay!) and will be back later tonight or tomorrow with some start/sit and rankings links.


What a difference a week can make. Last week you couldn’t buy a defense, this week the points were sky high. Only problem was, the points were being scored from unexpected sources. The highly owned and recommended only averaged 8 points, while the 3 recommended streamers averaged 12. SEA came through in spite of tempered expectations and BUF came through in spades when we expected a low ceiling. So it was the week of the streamers, and if you started PIT, CIN or NYJ, good for you. That’s 2 weeks in a row now that the streamers have outperformed the highly owned Defs.

So what does this week look like? Here are some links you can use to help you sift through week 11. As usual, my analysis, may or may not align with the pros. 


Here are the ownership and projections for Defs this week of the ‘highly owned’ defenses. Highly owned being better than 80% this week. The highly owned are slated to do well this week, so start ‘em if you got ‘em.
Highly Owned
Team
OPP
Yahoo Pts
Owned
Comments
STL
@Bal
8.7
97%
Rams are 4th best Def, the Ravens aren't all that generous, but tend to give up points to good Defs, and STL is good on the road, start them with confidence.
DEN
@CHI
9.2
97%
Chi is 7th most generous Off and Den is #1, another juicy matchup. With Osweiler at the helm expect DEN to be on the field a lot and wreaking havoc, some additional upside
SEA
SF
9.49
97%
#3 Def against 5th most generous Off, yeah gimme some of that, 1st best start of the week.
NE
BUF
9.47
94%
This one may be a trap, the Jets had 9 points off of BUF last week, and they are a better defense, I say start the Pats, but temper expectations.
ARI
CIN
5.8
93%
This is another one that may be a trap. CIN is the 3rd least generous OFF, and the Cards are 2nd best Def, I would start but temper expectations.
CAR
WAS
8.37
92%
Another mismatch, #6 Def against 14th most generous OFF, CAR at home is a formula for big points.
PHI
TB
9.1
89%
PHI is 5th best Def against 3rd most generous OFF, this is the 3rd best start of the week, keep 'em in your lineup.
GB
@MIN
7.86
86%
Until the Pack gets back to dominating on Def, I would steer clear of this one. MIN plays great ball control with the running game, look elsewhere.

With only 7 recommended starts of the highly owned, there isn’t much to choose from for this week’s streams, but I like TEN and KC, with 2 more with high upside. Then I throw in a couple of courageous picks if you have no other options.
Week 9 Best Streams
Team
OPP
Yahoo Pts
Owned
Comments
TEN
@JAC
7.3
8%
TEN isn't especially good on Def, but JAC is just too juicy. TEN's starting CBs are a concern here. Best stream of the week if TEN's CBs start, otherwise it's a mediocre start.
KC
@SD
6.26
40%
I hope you've been noticing the trend on KC, averaging 15 points in last 5 starts. SD isn't that generous but it doesn't matter, KC still gets its points, 2nd best stream.
JAC
TEN
6.76
2%
This is your sneaky start of the week, TEN is the most generous of all Offs, and JAC can play some DEF especially at home. Just never know which JAC Def shows up, sneaky start with upside.
NYJ
@HOU
7.58
71%
This is another sneaky start, on paper it doesn't look great, but Revis gets Hopkins, which appears to be Hoyer's only reliable target. Jets will stop the run as usual and force long down situations and sacks. Good stream with upside.
ATL
IND
6.64
26%
With ATL Off sputtering of late, expect ATL Def to be on the field a bit, which will give them some opportunities against a fill in, but safe QB. ATL has been improving since week 4, so if you don't have any other options, this is a start with some upside.
MIA
DAL
6.63
28%
DAL just can't operate without Romo, so they're still a good target. MIA's Def has struggled as of late, but with Cassel, there's good upside.

The streams are listed in order I think they will score, and we keep targeting QBs that are struggling. Good luck on a tough week for Defs.

15 comments:

SteveRichards said...

Hey, nice article, a lot of useful info. However, I am not sure about your reasoning about DAL and Romo. Sure, some of the guys on DAL haven't been amazing lately but I think they are underperforming and don't lack class per se. If that's the case, they WILL start getting results at some point. As far as Romo goes, I'm not as convinced as you are about him. I checked him out at http://fantasysportsdaily.com and he just doesn't seem all that impressive in comparison to some of the other players in his position from the major teams. Anyway, keep it up and keep the nice articles coming.

GOAT said...

nothing new here since week 11... WHY? ;)

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