Wednesday, September 07, 2016

Streaming Defenses - Week 1

We've got more Bob today, friends. See below for his thoughts on defenses you might want to stream for Week 1. Good luck!


Welcome to the ‘Streaming Defenses’ look at week 1. Sara will be giving you links to all the help you need for your skill positions, and occasionally one for the PK or Def. But most sites don’t spend too much time on the ‘non-skilled’ players, so that’s where I hope to give you some help. In a prior post I made the argument for picking the top 5 projected defenses this year and at what draft position. If you didn’t get those top 5 I had ‘locked in’ for drafting before the end of the draft, congratulations. You now have the opportunity to delve into the world of ‘Streaming Defenses’. And every week I’ll try to give you the best picks outside of the ‘top five’ that could get your big Def points based on the matchup. 

Streaming Defenses, for those of you new to this concept, is simply picking the best defense available to you each week that will give you favorable fantasy points due to the matchup. These are the defenses you currently own, plus all the defenses available on the waiver wire. So a quick caveat here: if you are not in a league that allows unlimited waivers or charges a waiver fee in order to do so, this strategy is not for you. Streaming defenses depends totally on the matchup. You look for teams that are playing offenses that are suspect at best and terrible at worst. But at the beginning of the year it’s difficult to predict those terrible teams. For example, last year we picked on the Jaguars, but that matchup lost its sheen once Bortles starting fueling the offense. We also targeted the 49ers last year and that worked out better. 

This year early I’m targeting the bottom projected teams, and those are CLE, SF(again) and TEN. CLE is in turmoil without a quality QB, questions at RB and only late help at WR when Gordon returns. SF is another team in turmoil, with bad options at QB, a limited WR bunch, and an RB that doesn’t look to be an every down player. TEN is a little different, they improved toward the end of the year with their rookie QB taking it down the stretch. We don’t know the impact of Murray yet, but their WR corps is a little too shaky, so I like to target them right now, but that may change if they start playing well early. Other teams to watch for targeting with new QBs are PHI, rookie QB Carsen Wentz, NEP with Garoppolo for 4 weeks, RAMS, rookie Jared Goff, Bradford in MIN, and Osweiler in HOU. We’ll see how they do in week 1 before jumping on them. 

So what are the matchups this week? Since we don’t have a track record to go from I’m taking the top ADP teams for analysis and adding a couple of early streams that could have big weeks.
Drafted
Team
ADP
Opp
Proj Pts
Comments
1
DEN
9.1
CAR
9
Tough matchup but you've got to start them, you gave up 8th pick to get them
2
ARI
9.8
NEP
9
Another tough matchup, top defense struggles to contain the Pats, but you've got to start 'em anyhow.
3
SEA
9.11
MIA
13
Best matchup for fantasy points this week, expect a nice return on your investment.
4
CAR
10.7
@DEN
11
Another great matchup against the unknown, but a rookie QB against a capable defense, I like it.
5
KC
11.10
SDC
10
Tough call on this one, depends on how awful SD protection is, I'm betting bad again.
6
HOU
11.10
CHI
10
Texans have an error prone offense to defend against, and Clowney rips them bad. Doesn't count as a streaming Def but you have to start.
7
MIN
13.0
@TEN
9
Vikings may be a steal at 13th and they have a good matchup this week against one of our targets. Picked in the 13th round this qualifies as this week's best stream.
8
LAR
13.6
@SFO
10
Rams are a tough D, and the 49ers are in tatters, expect a good matchup against another target offense. Again a 13th round pick qualifies as a stream, 2nd best this week.
9
NEP
13.10
@ARI
3
A middle of the road defense goes against a veteran QB, I don't like this matchup.
10
CIN
14.0
@NYJ
1
No one is projecting them to make an impact against the Jets, don't do it.
11
GB
14.11
@JAC
8
The Pack get last year's pansy for streaming, but JAC is better this year, but so is the Pack's defense. I like this matchup and qualifies as the 3rd best stream.
12
PIT
14.12
@WAS
5
I don't know the PIT defense this year, but I know WAS will be airing it out, probably while trailing, not a good start.






13
NYJ
14.12
CIN
8
Jets are tough defense especially against the run, and will wrap AJ up, nice stream this week and qualifies as the 4th best stream.
15
PHI
15.2
CLE
8
CLE is one of our targets early this season, and PHI is a good Def, count this as the 5th best stream.

There you have it. Kind of a swipe in the dark due to no track record at the beginning of the season, but I like the streams never the less.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

This was really well done and much appreciated. You sold me on the Vikings and they delivered. When do you post updates?

Sean McPhisto said...

I try to get my articles out on Tuesday, in time for waivers. Glad I helped.