Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Streaming Defenses - Week 4

Today was "all about me" day at school for my Kindergartener. He made a poster where he glued down some photos of himself and pictures of things he liked in magazines, which interestingly includes the LA Rams. He's a committed LA sports fan: he is diehard for the Dodgers so he assumes the "new" football team there must be amazing as well. Oh youngster...

Moving on. To Bob. Delightful and helpful Bob is back with his streaming defenses for Week 4.


Welcome to Week 4 Streaming Defenses. First, let’s take a look at last week and how our predictions held up. As you can see by the chart below, it was another great week for the highly owned teams. And I guess I have to apologize to Chiefs fans everywhere. Who knew they would post the top fantasy points of the week. And I told you not to start them, in fact, I advised to drop them altogether. That’s what is called a ‘big flop’. So I guess if you didn’t drop them you might think twice. I was right about HOU though, and pretty on point with the rest. As for the streamers, they did pretty well, except maybe the 49ers. So we’ve had three weeks in a row of big points for the highly owned, I don’t think it will continue, it never does. Oh, and sorry about that PHI thing too.
Week 3 Highly Owned
Team
OPP
Proj Pts
% Owned
 Actual
DEN
@CIN
16
100%
27
CAR
MIN
14
100%
8
SEA
SF
13
100%
7
ARI
@BUF
14
99%
11
HOU
@NE
10
95%
4
NE
HOU
12
93%
16
KC
NYJ
4
86%
35
MIN
@CAR
14
82%
27
Average



16.87
Streams for Week 3
SF
@SEA
12
3%
6
BAL
@JAC
11
39%
16
MIA
CLE
10
7%
8
LAR
@TB
9
74%
12
OAK
@TEN
8
57%
11
Average



10.6
PHI
PIT
3
49%
16

So what did we learn? Well we’ve already covered the Chiefs and Eagles. Another two notable teams from last week were TB and Buf. Buf posted 25 points against ARI and TB posted a respectable 13 against LAR. A lot of other sites were recommending TB, but I didn’t see it that way. If anything, it tells us that LAR is now a good target. With a bad quarterback, teams are stacking the line to stop Gurley, forcing Keenan to throw to no avail. PHI is averaging 14.7 per game now, and they look like they are for real on defense. So let’s review our targets: TEN, CLE, SF, JAC, and now LAR. SEA is looking like a target as well and will depend on who’s starting at QB. But I like Boykin better than Wilson when it comes to avoiding sacks. So if Wilson starts injured, they are a good target. With that knowledge let’s go to Week 4.

It’s a bit of slim pickings this week, with PHI and GB on a BYE. But there are four I like if you don’t have a highly owned and two that get honorable mention.
Week 4 Highly Owned
Team
Opp
Proj Pts
% Owned
Comments
DEN
@TB
16
100%
If the Rams can get 12 points on TB think what the Broncos can do. Must start.
CAR
@ATL
9
100%
CAR's Def is struggling due to being on the field too long because of the sputtering offense, and ATL is not giving up points to Defs easily. Start them anyway but temper expectations.
SEA
@NYJ
12
100%
After what KC did, I think the best part of SEA, the Def, will have a good day, start 'em.
ARI
LAR
12
99%
With LAR as the newest target, ARI should right the ship, a good start.
HOU
TEN
14
96%
HOU bounces back with the best target of the year so far, must start.
NE
BUF
10
90%
NE has been getting progressively better, but Buf may give them some trouble, but you have to start NE.
MIN
NYG
12
85%
MIN is a bonafide juggernaut, must start.
KC
@PIT
8
81%
I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest a start of KC but nothing like last week. Surprised so many still own them so let's keep them in the highly owned column.
Streams for Week 3
WAS
CLE
10
7%
WAS hasn't scored big on Def but has played 3 off juggernauts, this week they have a great target, 1st best stream.
LAR
@ARI
10
78%
The only consistency for LAR has been its Def. Averaging 9 pts/gm against some tough teams, I see them scoring against an ARI off that was stymied by lowly Buf last week. 2nd best stream.
SD
NO
10
1%
Averaging 9.7 pts per game so far, SD is quietly putting up some points and getting better. With so many injuries on Off the defense steps up once again.
BAL
OAK
8
23%
BAL Def has quietly averaged 12.3 pts per game, but go against a team that has only surrendered 7 points this year to Defs. With BAL at home this week, that's about to change.

And if you have no other choices, plug in MIA or JAC.
 

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