Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Running Back Predictions for Week 3

As noted in my previous blog Tight End Predictions, I am comparing the weekly sit/start calls made by several websites to help determine which one has the best predictions week after week. This week the results from 6 different websites with free projections are as follows:

1. NFL Start 'em Sit 'em by Fabiano
Suggested starters average ranking for the week: 16.14
Suggested starters average fantasy points for the week: 11.06
Suggested benchers average ranking for the week: 31
Suggested benchers average fantasy points for the week: 6.69

For the 2nd week in a row, the nfl.com/Fabiano did a great job at selecting which players you should start and which you should bench. This one was a close battle though with Ask the Commish, listed below, making similar projections. Fabiano suggested starting 3 of the top 10 RBs and all but one of his starters were in the top 25. With the exception of Ahman Green, he chose benchers who had pretty subpar or mediocre performances at best.

2. Ask the Commish
Suggested starters average ranking for the week: 16.10
Suggested starters average fantasy points for the week: 11.51
Suggested benchers average ranking for the week: 30
Suggested benchers average fantasy points for the week: 6.19

Right on the heels of NFL.com is Ask the Commish - the only reason they are getting 2nd place here is that a slightly lower percentage of their picks for starters ended up performing as a top 10 RB for the week. Good work, ATC - way to rebound from last week's poor performance.

3. NFL Freaks Start-Bench List
Suggested starters average ranking for the week: 17.73
Suggested starters average fantasy points for the week: 10.46
Suggested maybes average ranking for the week: 32.63
Suggested maybes average fantasy points for the week: 7.17
Suggested benchers average ranking for the week: 52.8
Suggested benchers average fantasy points for the week: 3.26

One of the reasons I really like NFL Freaks is that they categorize just about all players into one of these three categories: start, maybe, bench. It can be frustrating to look for advice/info on a player and find absolutely nothing. They did pretty well this week with 2/3 of their suggested starters actually performing in the top 20. They did miss the mark on 2 of their maybes - Green and Portis (number 7 and 2 RBs for the week, respectively) - and one of their benchers - Cadillac (number 11 RB). But overall they did a nice job with their predictions this week.

4. SI Start 'em Sit 'em
Suggested starters average ranking for the week: 25
Suggested starters average fantasy points for the week: 6.85
Suggested benchers average ranking for the week: 36
Suggested benchers average fantasy points for the week: 5.68

Another tough week for the SI predictors. Not as bad as their TE projections but still not good. There was only 1 RB in their starters that performed in the top 20 - and yet 2 in the top 20 on their benchers list.

5. Football Docs Bench/Start
Suggested starters average ranking for the week: 31.4
Suggested starters average fantasy points for the week: 5.75
Suggested benchers average ranking for the week: 47.33
Suggested benchers average fantasy points for the week: 3.36

They just can't really choose any good players either in their start or bench list. I would give these guys last place but at least their starters did actually perform better than their benchers...unlike the next site.

6. Fantasy Football Cafe
Suggested starters average ranking for the week: 21.67
Suggested starters average fantasy points for the week: 10.07
Suggested benchers average ranking for the week: 15
Suggested benchers average fantasy points for the week: 10.58

This earns the lowest placing for the week. Not such a great set of predictions when your benchers outperform your starters. They also recommended many, many more players than any other site (21) but only benched a mere 2 players. So who knows how accurate they could've been if they thought things through a little more.

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