Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Tight End Predictions

As noted a few days ago, one of my goals with this site is to be able to provide ongoing stats on which websites out there really give the best advice on who to start and who to sit. So this week I focused on tight ends. I randomly chose 5 sites and compared results by looking at each noted player's ranking for the week among all the tight ends in the league as well as their total points for the week awarded by my yahoo league. Then by comparing the averages between those that a site picked to start and bench, you can get a good idea of how well their predictions turned out. If you happen to like numbers and would like to see the excel spreadsheet/formulas, let me know. I can work on posting that up here.
Results below:

1. NFL.com Start 'em, Sit 'em by Michael Fabiano
Suggested starters average ranking for the week: 18.29
Suggested starters average fantasy points for the week: 4.81
Suggested benchers average ranking for the week: 27.29
Suggested benchers average fantasy points for the week: 3.76

Of the 7 TEs that Fabiano recommended as starters, 5 of them finished in the top 20 performers of the week (2 of them even in the top 10); of the 7 he recommended as benchers, only 1 even finished in the top 20 - Desmond Clark, the top TE for the week. This week nfl.com and Mike Fabiano appeared to have a pretty accurate set of predictions and the best of the 5 sites I looked at - well done.

2. NFLFreaks Start-Bench List
Suggested starters average ranking for the week: 18.8
Suggested starters average fantasy points for the week: 5.217
Suggested maybes average ranking for the week: 38.17
Suggested maybes average fantasy points for the week: 1.65
Suggested benchers average ranking for the week: 35
Suggested benchers average fantasy points for the week: 1.98

While there is a pretty substantial difference between the starters they picked and everyone else, the maybes and the benchers performed essentially in the same way. They did a fairly nice job in picking starters that would perform well and benchers that would not. And kudos to NFLFreaks for being the only ones here that fully endorsed starting Desmond Clark.

3. Ask the Commish Start-Sit
Suggested starters average ranking for the week: 18.5
Suggested starters average fantasy points for the week: 3.8
Suggested benchers average ranking for the week: 9.5
Suggested benchers average fantasy points for the week: 6.04

As you can see, the players Ask The Commish recommended benching actually performed significantly better than those that they recommended starting. Fantasy points were essentially doubled by the benchers. Not a great job with the predictions this week.

4. Fantasy Sharks Start/Bench List
Suggested starters average ranking for the week: 23.5
Suggested starters average fantasy points for the week: 4.38
Suggested benchers average ranking for the week: 47.5
Suggested benchers average fantasy points for the week: 0.89

A decent job at predicting decent starters though they varied widely from 5th and 6th ranked L.J. Smith and Todd Heap, respectively, and 45th ranked Gonzo. Though apparently their bencher predictions are right on target. Come here to find out which players should be benched.

5. SI.com Start/Sit
Suggested starters average ranking for the week: 51.5
Suggested starters average fantasy points for the week: 0.64
Suggested benchers average ranking for the week: 35.5
Suggested benchers average fantasy points for the week: 1.52

This was abysmal. I'll be honest, I expected more from SI but perhaps this goes to show that the big guy doesn't always know what he's doing. The 2 starters they suggested performed so poorly that neither one could even muster up one measley point. Meanwhile, the benchers more than doubled the starters in points - though also not exactly a stellar set of performances. Here's to a better job with the week 3 predictions from SI...

1 comment:

Duchess said...

Dude, this is impressive. Seriously.