Wednesday, September 30, 2015

2015 Streaming Defenses: Week 4

This week has been bananas. More on that soon but I've got a defensive streaming article here from Bob so let's get after it:



Time to look back over the last three weeks and assess how the streaming strategy is working. Remember, this is an alternative to taking a defense early in the drafts and sticking with it, so we need to compare the results of the streamers against the highest drafted Defenses. The highest drafted Defenses, sorted by average points per week, according to MFL are listed below.
Team
Draft Pos
Rank
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Avg
DEN
11.06
1
20
25
16
20.3
ARI
11.1
2
6
22
33
20.3
SEA
7.02
3
21
5
20
15.3
NYJ
11.09
4
18
16
9
14.3
BUF
8.06
6
13
6
18
12.3
StL
9.09
7
16
7
13
12
PHI
10.11
8
6
10
19
11.7
HOU
8.07
28
4
8
7
6.3
MIA
11.02
27
16
3
0
6.3







Streamers






Week 1
Week 2
Week 3

CAR
23
BAL
3
DEN
16

TB
6
NO
9
NYJ
9

TEN
20
DET
5
CLE
2

GB
6
KC
14
CAR
8

  AVG
13.75
  AVG
7.75
  AVG
8.75


If we look at the top 4 streams for each week, we have a great case for Week 1. CAR and TEN beat all but one of the highly drafted, SEA. Week 2 was a mixed bag of streamers with only KC beating out all but five of the highly drafted. Week 3 was a good week for the highly drafted, but DEN beat out all but five of the highly drafted, and NYJ beat out all but six. Notice that the average of the top four streams each week still beats out all but 7 of the highly drafted Defs. HOU, drafted in the 8th round has been a bust, and the Dolphins haven’t been much better and killed you in Week 3. So to this point, streamers would be ranked 8th overall. This basically translates into saving picks from the 7th to the 11th round for RB3s, WR3s, QB1s, and TE1s.  

Below are the results of Week 3 using MFL stats and Fantasy Sharks scoring. Suggested streams are outlined in Blue. Owned and started are in Green for start, Yellow for temper expectations and Red for look elsewhere.
Rank
PLAYER
 Week 3
1
Cardinals
33
2
Seahawks
20
3
Eagles
19
4
Bills
18
5
Vikings
18
6
Broncos
16
7
Colts
13
8
Rams
13
9
Raiders
12
10
Ravens
12
14
Jets
9
15
Patriots
9
17
Panthers
8
21
Texans
7
24
Bengals
5
28
Browns
2
32
Dolphins
0

Had some great results of the highly owned and started. Our two top streams (DEN and NYJ) came in above all but three of the highly owned. I warned you about the Dolphins, but the Rams and Ravens did better than expected. Some surprises to consider are the Vikings and Raiders. The Vikes are starting to look like a solid Def but they see DEN this week. And the Raiders, who looked great in pre-season, may be solidifying in the regular season. Oh, and I didn’t agree with the pros on CLE and CIN and it turned out to be sage advice.

So what did we learn? As far as targets, last week I listed the Browns and Titans, and they did not disappoint. OAK took 12 points from the Browns and the Colts took 13 from the Titans. I also listed four teams that had QB problems: DAL, CHI, NO, DET. The opposing Defenses, ATL, SEA, CAR, and DEN, got 6, 20, 8, and 16 respectively. A new target has emerged as the 49ers, wow have they sunk to a new low. And MIA is now on the watch list as well.

So with that analysis how does this week stack up? Here are some links to sage streaming advice. As usual, my analysis, may or may not align with the pros:


Here are the ownership and projection numbers for Defenses this week of the ‘owned’ defenses. Owned being better than 75%.
Highly Owned Defs
Team
Opp
Yahoo Proj
Owned
Comment
SEA
DET
9.56
100%
SEA is a good start at home and will dispatch another NFC North foe.
BUF
NYG
9.36
96%
This might be a trap, but I like Buf at home, start 'em
HOU
@ATL
7.83
95%
Don't start HOU, they have been miserable against QBs and Matty Ice is a top five QB right now.
ARI
StL
9.06
94%
ARI Def is rolling, roll with them.
NE
Bye
0
93%
Bye week, need a replacement
StL
@ARI
7.57
89%
Nope, ARI is an offensive juggernaut, and their running game is even making waves.
DEN
MIN
9.51
83%
Yeah, start 'em again, even against a conservative offense
CAR
@TB
10.29
79%
Another good start, CAR is killing it against rookie QBs.
PHI
@WAS
9.89
77%
I would temper expectations on the road and I still don't believe in the Eagles even after last week.

So I like five of the highly owned this week, but here are some juicy streams that could outperform.
Top Streams Week 4
GB
@SF
8.04
65%
The 49ers are a top target now, and GB is rolling on both sides of the ball, number 1 Stream.
NYJ
@MIA
7.92
71%
This is played in London, so it's really not in MIA, but the Jets keep coming and MIA is in turmoil, number 2 Stream.
IND
JAC
9.75
31%
JAC is still a target and I think the Colts have a good game at home, number 3 Stream.
BAL
@PIT
6.75
65%
Michael Vick at QB? Yeah, gimme some of that. Ravens are pissed and will take it out on a wounded PIT, number 4 Stream with upside.
OAK
@CHI
5.53
1%
I'm beginning to like the OAK defense, and this is a wild stream, but against Clausen, I like the matchup, number 5 Stream with upside if Cutler is still out.

I love the upside to BAL and OAK this week. But it would take a brave heart to start OAK. I really wanted to put WAS in here somewhere, but I don’t trust PHI, could they really be on the rebound? GB could be the week’s biggest Defense this week.

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