Wednesday, September 09, 2015

2015 Streaming Defenses: Week 1

Streamers, rejoice: Bob is back. He's got the details you need on streaming defenses for Week 1.

Hello Fantasy Football fans, the season is finally here. For the last four weeks or so, you have been mining data, checking trades and acquisitions, watching the pre-season injury status and updating your cheatsheets for your best draft ever, right? Well then why did a ton of you pick your defense in the 7th to 10th rounds in your draft? Have you learned nothing from years of documentation stating taking a defense early is too expensive? If you need a reminder here are a couple of links that show you the futility of picking a defense early…

Here are some of the players you picked up by resisting the urge to pick Seattle Defense in the 7th round of a draft…

  • Chris Ivory, starting RB1 in a run heavy offense.
  • Jason Witten, still has it after all of these years, in an offense that won’t be able to rely on its running game like last year.
  • Tevin Coleman, will probably take over RB1 status from Freeman in short order in Atlanta.
  • Larry Fitzgerald, with Carson back, becomes a great WR2 and may even crack into WR1 status with the chemistry he has with Palmer.
  • Victor Cruz, still has doubts with his health, but can you pass on the potential if he stays healthy?

Ninth round misses if you picked the Texans or Bills….

  • John Brown, the other part of a passing juggernaut offense with Palmer back.
  • Shane Vereen, a breakout candidate from a lack luster backfield in New York.
  • Delanie Walker, poised to be the number one receiver in TEN as a TE.
  • Kendall Wright, the WR1 for TEN with a capable QB now in place.

But enough of my rant. For those of you that picked judiciously, it’s time to start using those opportunity picks you used for depth and sleepers instead of locking yourself into a defense. Let’s look at the prospects of some of those early Def picks in week 1. 

The top five drafted defenses this year were: Seattle (ADP 90, 07.06), Buffalo (ADP 106, 08.10), Texans (ADP 109, 09.01), Rams (ADP 120, 10.01), Eagles (ADP 132, 11.11).

  • Seattle has a great defense and a great matchup this week. So start them against the shaky Rams and bask in the sunlight of picking them early…this week.
  • Bills have a terrible matchup with the Colts, but are at home and Rex, as usual, has beefed up the defense, so they are a surprisingly decent start this week, but temper your expectations.
  • Texans do not have a good matchup. The Chiefs are stingy in giving up turnovers or making mistakes so temper your expectations here as well. 
  • Rams have a great defensive front seven, but Wilson can evade, so watch out for some spectacular broken plays from Seattle and temper your expectations on that top defense pick.
  • Eagles, don’t like the matchup here, you might want to sit the Eagles this week and pick up a streamer

So who are the best streamers for Week 1? Well, as usual, you have to look at the matchup. And here are the early winners for worst offenses to target this year:

  • Titans, new QB, no protection, no running game, and will be forced to drop back a lot. They are target number one for streaming defenses.
  • Jaguars, they’re baaaccckkkkk! Once again the Jags don’t have a reliable offense. Bortles will improve, but they still haven’t found a ground attack. There will be a lot of drop backs and sacks.
  • Washington found themselves a target for defenses at the end of last year, and they continue into this season. QB controversy, bad O-Line, and will be playing from behind a lot.
  • Rams, new QB, and a lot questions in the running game and protection. Foles is going to have a bad day this week against Seattle, and others as the season rolls on.
  • Buccaneers, see the Titans above. Same problems and will give up a lot of points to opposing Defenses.

So that sets the stage for the best defense to stream this week, if you don’t have one of the top five drafted defenses:

The Panthers are a great start this week against the hapless Jaguars. Start them with confidence.

The Dolphins were the 6th highest drafted Def this year, so if you got ‘em play ‘em this week. They take on the 2nd worst offense this week and will dominate.

Two of the top targets are playing each other this week, Titans at Bucs, so this should be fun to watch which defense will do better. I like TB at home to outmatch the TEN defense. But I like TEN Def putting up nice points as well.

Sleeper picks on Def this week include:
Packers picking off Cutler a couple of times in Chicago.
Jets going against a borderline target offense in Cleveland at home.

Start SEA and HOU with confidence.
Start but temper expectations BUF, STL, PHI.


Anonymous said...

I love the Dolphins too this week, but not only for this week. Their first six games of the season are:


They can be a plug and play defense the first six weeks of the season.


Anonymous said...

Thoughts on the Vikings (away) v. Niners this week?

Anonymous said...

Great article! TY

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