Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Kick it up a notch: Week 13

I'm sitting at a surprisingly uncrowded Starbucks with very few work e-mails coming through and anticipating a quiet day as it seems many of my coworkers must be getting after Thanksgiving plans a bit early. We aren't traveling this year (yea!) and are having family come to us (double yea!) but it is yet to be seen how much of my day will be spent on football tomorrow. Hopefully I'll at least be able to check in on all the games for a little while. Safe travels to all and let's get right to Bob's weekly kicker article. 



Hello Fantasy Football players, Thanksgiving is approaching and we have a real interesting set of matchups this week. Thursday will have three games and they’re all great matchups. We also have a lot of matchups that will help decide playoff contention and a lot of games being played indoors. So let us navigate the hardest position to project, the kicker, and see what we can come up with.

Last week was a mediocre week for the streamers. Look see below…

Week 12


Top Perfomers

Player
Actual

Parkey
25
Santos
8

Hauschka
19
Gould
3

Cundiff
18
Carpenter
11

Vinatieri
14
Cundiff
18

Tucker
14
Murray
9



   Average
9.8



   Week 12 Avg
9.46



   Yearly Avg
9.2



   % Owned best
13.5



   % Owned temper
13.5




It was a great week for the highly owned kickers, averaging 13.5 points. So if you locked in and started one of those, then you fared well. Those include kickers owned in over 70% of leagues: Gostkowski, Vinatieri, Hauschka, Dawson, Parkey, Crosby, Bailey, Suisham, Tucker. Overall average for Week 12 was 9.46, and the average for the streamers came out at 9.8. So, again, the streamers beat the average, with Cundiff coming in 3rd overall, and Carpenter not far behind. Yearly average came back up with a good week 12 for kickers.

Here’s this week’s analysis and recommendations:

Player
Pts
Avg
% Owned
Opp
Comment
Gostkowski
148
13.5
99%
@GB
7th best start, it's Gost, but weather may play a role outdoors
Vinatieri
140
12.7
99%
WAS
1st best start, good kicker, indoors
Bailey
120
10.9
90%
PHI
3rd best start, good kicker, indoors
Hauschka
120
10.9
89%
@SF
4th best start, decent kicker, any pts will be dear
Dawson
111
10.1
87%
SEA
2nd best start, good kicker, any pts will be dear
Parkey
135
12.3
85%
@DAL
5th best start, good kicker, indoors
Crosby
108
9.8
83%
NE
Temper expectations, playing in the elements
Tucker
121
11
81%
SD
6th best start, great kicker, fair weather field






Suisham
106
9.6
35%
NO
1st best stream, generous NO, good kicker
Bullock
113
10.3
11%
TEN
2nd best stream, generous TEN, indoors
Brown
71
6.5
4%
@JAC
3rd best stream, generous JAC, Brown hasn't missed a FG all year
Catanzaro
101
9.2
38%
@ATL
4th best stream, generous ATL, good kicker, decent weather
Carpenter
116
10.5
60%
CLE
5th best stream, good kicker, defensive game

First, all 8 of Kickers owned in %70 of leagues or more are starts this week. That’s the first time that’s happened since this column started. So start ‘em if you have ‘em.  

First best stream is Suisham. NO is just about baked, much like your turkey day casserole. Bal scored at will and Tucker put up big numbers on a terrible defense. Suisham is almost as good. Expect a big number.

Second best stream is the underrated Bullock out of Hou. He’s only owned in 11% of leagues and has averaged over 10 points a game. He has a good matchup this week with TEN that can score now, but can’t defend.  

Third best is Josh Brown. Did you know he hasn’t missed a field goal all year? Problem is, he hasn’t had enough attempts and has a low average points per game because of that. This week against the hapless Jaguars, he gets his attempts and makes good.

Fourth best is another overlooked kick in Catanzaro. He’s a good kicker, playing in a decent weather situation against a very generous defense. He gets double digit points this week.

Finally, I like Dan Carpenter, even though the game will be played in a tough weather situation. This is going to be a defensive Donnybrook, so expect a lot of FG opportunities for both teams. I can’t recommend Cundiff though, because he’s missed too many field goals this year. So take the better kicker in this matchup.

That’s the scoop for this week and if you don’t have one of the highly owned kickers, pick up one of the five streamers, instead of ‘kicking it down the road’…

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Who do you like in a pinch between Dawson and Tucker?

Season's on the line!

Sean McPhisto said...

Too late to respond, sorry. But I was have taken Tucker anyhow, just a better kicker, hope you picked him.