Monday, November 10, 2014

Streaming Defenses: Week 11

Greetings, football fans. I read tonight that my old home of Boulder, Colorado, saw a 10 degree temperature drop over the course of one short minute today. Whoa. Kind of jealous I'm not there to experience that awesome weather. And of course just be in Colorado when my Broncos are on such a roll...but here's hoping those of you in the path of the cold front are staying warm for tonight's MNF game. Let's get right to guest writer Bob's thoughts on streaming defenses for Week 11.

Hello again fellow streamers, how did you do this week? Did any of you pick the Packers? I won two of my games on the Packers defense alone. And the ‘Boys didn’t hurt me at all. The Saints were a flyer and didn’t do too bad. And the Steelers, in spite of a smack down, still put up some points. So here are the overall results of our projections for Week 10.

Team
Projected
Actual
Cowboys
14
14
Steelers
12
9
Packers
12
21
Saints
10
8
Average
12
13

The average of all defenses came in at 11.4 points. The average of the six teams owned by over 70% was 12.8, and if you take out the Cardinals that had 31 points as an outlier, they only averaged 10.3. So the stream worked really well with the Packers and Cowboys, and was just under the top 6 team average by only a point or two with the Steelers and Saints. So a good week for the projections, which were exceeded by an average of 1 point. Once again, pointing out streaming can be effective. So what has week 10 taught us about some of the defenses? First, watch out for the Packers. They have unleashed the beast. Clay Matthews went wild in his new role of ‘roaming assassin’. He had his best stats of the year with 9 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 tackles for a loss, and a sack. It looks like this will continue and put additional consideration into starting the Packers in the future. In the playoff weeks, (14-16) they meet the Falcons, Bills, and Buccaneers, probably the best three matchups for the playoffs. 

Second, Miami did as expected and didn’t put up ridiculous numbers this week, but still managed 8 points. They are starting to look like an every week start except when they meet the Broncos and Patriots. Their playoff opponents are the Ravens, Patriots, and Vikings. 

Finally, ARI is for real on both sides of the ball, but they have a real gauntlet of opponents to face yet, including SEA twice and the 49ers for a return engagement, without Palmer. But they also have the Rams and Falcons coming. Their playoff opponents are the Chiefs, Rams, and Seahawks, not too bad…

So this week is going to be tough, with 2 of our top 5 targets on a bye, the Jaguars and Jets. By the way, the Vikings have moved past the Raiders as the 5th most generous opponent for Defs. Here’s my analysis of the top owned Defs along with a few streams to make up for the poor matchups this week.

Player
Pts Yr
Avg yr
Own %
Opp
Comments
Seahawks
84
9.3
98%
@KC
Start but Temper Expectations
Cardinals
114
12.7
88%
DET
3rd Best Matchup, only because DET doesn’t give up points easily.
Eagles
109
13.6
84%
@GB
Bad Matchup
Broncos
89
9.9
82%
@STL
1st Best Matchup
Lions
117
13
79%
@ARI
Bad Matchup
Chiefs
93
10.3
79%
SEA
Bad Matchup
49ers
95
10.6
77%
@NYG
2nd Best Matchup
Bills
113
12.6
73%
@MIA
Start but Temper Expectations
Patriots
113
12.6
72%
@IND
Bad Matchup
Texans
106
11.8
71%
@CLE
Start but Temper Expectations
Dolphins
124
13.8
69%
BUF
Start, 1st best stream, starting to look like an every week start…
Bengals
69
7.7
69%
@NO
Bad Matchup
Redskins
67
7.4
4%
TB
Start, 2nd best stream, yep at home and showing potential against the 3rd most generous offense.
Steelers
95
9.5
55%
@TEN
Start, 3rd best stream, will be pissed…
Packers
99
11
32%
PHI
Start, 4th best matchup with Matthews playing roaming assassin, move up to 2nd if PHI struggles tonight
Chargers
67
7.4
13%
OAK
The Chargers defense has been terrible as of late, I wouldn't start them even against OAK.

As I said, the Dolphins are getting tough to sit, so start them against a Bills offense on the road that may sputter. They are only 69% owned so may still be available in some leagues. The Redskins oppose one of our target defenses in TB, although the Bucs aren’t being nearly as generous as in past weeks, but still gave up 13 points to the pitiful Falcons. The Steelers will be pissed, and will take it out on the Titans, even on the road. And then there are the Packers. If PHI struggles tonight against CAR, I would put them at the top of the streamers, about even with the Dolphins. And on a side note, a lot of sites are ranking SD as a top stream this week, but I don’t like them. Their Def is just awful, don’t fall for this oversight. 

In summary, here are my predictions…
Miami, 14 points.
Redskins, 12 points.
Steelers, 12 points.
Packers, 12 points or 14 points.

Happy Streamin’….

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Cardinals have a rookie QB...Lions good start.

Anonymous said...

I would like an update considering Palmer is out. Would you really not think that the Lions are a good start? Also, Sanchez looked very comfortable in Chip Kelly's system. I'd be very nervous starting the Pack against that offense. Maybe they get 2 picks at most and a whole lot of points scored against a not very good secondary. Thoughts?

Anonymous said...

browns not mentioned?

bruns said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bruns said...

I too find it odd not to see Cleveland mentioned. They've been on a roll and are set up well against Houston and Ryan Mallet.