Monday, November 24, 2014

Streaming Defenses: Week 13

Welcome to Monday and your weekly guest post from Bob. He's here with your Week 13 streaming defense options so let's jump to it. 


Hello happy streamers, we had a pretty good week 12 for defenses. We still have two games to play tonight thanks to Mother Nature, but only the Bills hold any interest to streamers, and they were highly owned last week. Here’s the outcome sans the Bills outcome:
Week 12


Team
Projected
Actual
Colts
14
17
Chiefs
10
6
Packers
10
8
Chargers
10
17
      Average
11
12
      AVG of all teams

10
      AVG of high % 0wned

9.9
      AVG of Recommended high % owned

13.5
      AVG of Sits high % Owned

3.3

As you can see with the results, we had some winners in the Colts and Chargers, and a couple of so-so calls. But even the Chiefs and Packers performed better than the highly owned recommended sits of the Broncos, Lions, and Dolphins who averaged only 3.3 points this week. So at the very least you should listen to the recommendations on sits. The recommended starts of the highly owned teams averaged 13.5, a pretty good week for them, with the Eagles still playing highly effective defense and 20 points. The recommended streamers averaged 12 points, which was higher than the overall Defs average. So, a good week for you streamers, especially if you picked the Colts or Chargers.  
Here’s this week’s analysis and recommendations…
Player
Pts
Avg
% Owned
Opp
Comment
Seahawks
106
9.6
93%
@SF
4th best start of highly owned, even on the road, starting to get their swagger back
49ers
126
11.5
92%
SEA
Tough matchup, but 49ers averaging almost 14 points in last 3 games so you have to start them.
Eagles
165
15
89%
@DAL
5th best start of highly owned, expect a tough DEF effort against the vulnerable Boys
Cardinals
139
12.6
87%
@ATL
6th best start of highly owned with upside against terrible ATL
Bills
126
12.6
87%
CLE
The Browns don't give up points easily, but the Bills are tough at home, so you start them, but temper expectations
Chiefs
104
9.5
85%
DEN
Don't start against high offensive team
Patriots
129
11.7
84%
@GB
Don't start against high offensive team
Texans
128
11.6
82%
TEN
3rd best start of highly owned, against a rookie QB
Lions
127
11.5
78%
CHI
2nd best start of highly owned, CHI gives up too many pts to DEFs
Packers
138
12.5
75%
NE
Don't start against high offensive team
Broncos
101
9.2
73%
@KC
Tough matchup against a team that doesn't give up points easily, temper expectations
Colts
113
10.3
71%
WAS
1st best start of highly owned, expect some sacks and turnovers, WAS is a mess
Dolphins
138
12.5
63%
@NYJ
1st best stream against a generous Jets off, Mia regains its DEF swagger
Giants
75
6.8
9%
@JAC
2nd best stream against the generous Jags.
Rams
96
8.7
42%
OAK
3rd best stream, Rams are showing a little of last year’s form on DEF
Bengals
88
8
52%
@TB
I don't trust the Bengals Def lately, especially on the road, don't buy the recommendation.

The highly owned teams have some good matchups, with six being recommended highly. There are two matchups where you should not expect high returns, and there are three you should not start at all. So to make up for those three teams we are recommending some new streamers. 

The Dolphins are pretty highly owned but should be available since they were dropped against the Packers.  They have a good matchup against the lowly Jets one of our favorite targets for Def points. I think the Dolphins regain a little of their earlier magic and get 14 points this week.

Welcome to the club, Giants. They draw the number one target this week, and even though they haven’t played stellar Def lately, they will shine against the haphazard Jags, expect 12 points.

The Raiders are getting better on offense lately as exhibited by their upset over KC in week 12. But STL is also getting good numbers on defense and keep getting a key play or two a game even against good teams, like the Broncos. You can expect a respectable 12 points this week.

There you have it, Dolphins, Giants, and Rams, for those of you that don’t own some of the top six matchups this week.

2 comments:

Joe D. said...

The title of this post should have read Week 13. Kinda threw me off there, lol.

Fantasy Football Librarian said...

Ha! That's all me (Sara) - just trying to mess with all of my opponents, right?! That sounds like a good excuse for my brain lapse. I updated all my references to Week 12...sorry about that and thanks for the heads up, Joe!