Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Kick it up a notch

Guest writer Bob is back with his thoughts on kickers for Week 11. Every little bit can help when you're waging a make-it-to-the-playoffs war so read on...


G’day to all you readers of the FFLibrarian. Hope you’re following because a lot of good advice is flying around here. This week’s PK streams are plentiful, so I took from the best opportunities.  But first, let’s look at last week’s recommendations.
Player
Actual
Shaun Suisham
10
Mason Crosby
16
Chandler Catanzaro
9
Billy Cundiff
7
Dan Carpenter
7
Average
9.8

Week 10 PKs averaged 7.88 points overall, a down week for PKs. The yearly average of all PKs is 9.2. The average for the week of those owned over 70% PKs was 8.6. So the above streamers averaged better than all the averages. I had Crosby in several of my leagues and it paid dividends. And Suisham would have gone bonkers if it wasn’t for that terrible offensive outing by PIT. Catanzaro stock may move up due to the Palmer injury but not this week due to the stingy DET squad, so stay tuned.

Here’s this week’s analysis and recommendations.
Player
Yr Pts
Yr Avg
 Owned
Opp
Comment
Tucker
107
10.7
97%
BYE
Need a replacement
Bailey
112
11.2
96%
BYE
Need a replacement
Gostkowski
129
14.3
94%
@IND
5th best start lots of red zone
Hauschka
93
10.3
91%
@KC
2nd best start
Vinatieri
114
12.7
88%
NE
4th best start
Parkey
100
11.1
86%
@GB
7th best start temper expectations
Dawson
90
10
82%
@NYG
1st best start
Suisham
95
9.5
74%
@TEN
3rd best start
Crosby
88
9.8
73%
PHI
6th best start temper expectations
Walsh
87
9.7
27%
@CHI
1st Stream, CHI is very generous and MIN may upset with a game winning FG
Forbath
81
9
1%
TB
2nd Stream against generous target, only 1% owned
Gano
91
9.1
35%
ATL
3rd Stream against generous target
Sturgis
96
10.7
50%
BUF
4th Stream in a def game with lots of FGs
Novak
79
8.8
35%
OAK
5th Stream against generous target but sketchy off
McManus
65
7.2
11%
@STL
Good target, greater DEN off, will be getting PA but low FGS

Blair Walsh is going against a CHI team that is breaking apart. I like MIN’s chance to win this game and in doing so will be taking all the points it can, including a game winning FG. Kai Forbath??? Yep, it’s a good matchup against a TB team that is starting to score. But WAS will prevail and utilize its scantily used PK to keep ahead. Graham Gano is a good kicker when he’s used. This week it’s the week ATL defense in a close game that will find opportunities to Gano. Caleb Sturgis is 7th in overall scoring and has a nice defensive matchup this week which should spell some FGs. Nick Novak is back, only because they are against a generous team in OAK. I don’t know what’s happened to the SD offense, but I think they rebound at home this week and take as many points as possible in a close game. Finally, be careful of Brandon McManus, I think he gets 5 or 6 points, but probably not many FGs.

That’s it for this week.  If you don’t have one of the top-owned PKs and have a bye in week 11, start the following in the order below:

Blair Walsh, Kai Forbath, Graham Gano, Caleb Sturgis, or Nick Novak.

Happy playing and Kick It Up a Notch!!

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