Monday, November 17, 2014

Streaming Defenses: Week 12

Happy Monday all. I have mixed football feelings today after a tremendous win for my alma mater, Northwestern, but then a sad, sad defeat for my Broncos. I'm hoping to get two posts up today but no promises - this first post here comes from Bob, our resident DST guru. Take a look at his suggestions for streaming defenses in Week 12.

Hello fellow streamers, did you pick up the Packers this week? I hope so. I’ve been riding the Pack defense for two weeks now and it’s been a huge help in winning my leagues. But they are only owned in 32% in Yahoo leagues, so not everyone is listening. Here’s last week’s recap:
Team
Projected
Actual
Dolphins
14
11
Redskins
12
6
Steelers
12
???
Packers
12
31
      Average
12.5
16
      AVG

9.65
      % 0wned

9.1
      Rec % owned

11.6
      Bad % Owned

5.25

The Dolphins put up a respectable Def line, the Redskins disappointed, and the jury is still out on the Steelers. But the Pack, whew! The overall average for all teams was 9.65, a little up from the yearly average, maybe the weather played some role in that. Of the over 70% owned teams the average was a little less at 9.1. If you played the recommended 70% you did well as they averaged 11.6 points, with the Cardinals and 49ers pacing the pack, but no big blowouts. If you ignored my advice on the top 70% teams that I did not like, you got burned. They averaged only 5.25 points, Eagles, Lions, Chiefs and Patriots. So if you didn’t own the recommended top owned, and subbed in one of the streamers, you did better than most. Hail the streamers.
This week has another mixed bag with none of the highly owned on bye. So let’s take a look:
Team
Yr Pts
Yr Avg
% Owned
Opp
Comment
Seahawks
93
9.3
96%
ARI
Start, SEA at home, but temper expectations
Cardinals
127
12.7
89%
@SEA
Start, good defense, but temper expectations
Broncos
96
9.6
88%
MIA
Don't like this matchup, look elsewhere
Lions
125
12.5
85%
@NE
Bad matchup, look elsewhere
Eagles
145
14.5
84%
TEN
Start, 3rd best start of % owned
49ers
112
11.2
83%
WAS
Start, 2nd best start of % owned
Dolphins
135
13.5
78%
@DEN
Bad matchup, look elsewhere
Bills
126
12.6
78%
NYJ
Start, 1st best start of % owned
Texans
117
11.7
78%
CIN
Start, 5st best start of % owned
Patriots
120
12
76%
DET
Start, 4th best start of % owned
Colts
96
9.6
41%
JAC
1st best stream, it's JAC
Chiefs
98
9.8
69%
@OAK
2nd best stream, KC is improving, OAK is generous
Packers
130
13
32%
@MIN
3rd best stream, GB getting stronger on DEF, keep riding them
Chargers
79
7.9
35%
STL
4th best stream, STL #1 in giving up DEF pts, and they beat up generous teams to DEF

First, you don’t start Defs facing explosive offenses, so Miami and Detroit are out this week. The Broncos have MIA at home but are struggling with pass happy offenses, so look elsewhere. That means we need 3 Defs that have a potential to excel this week, I’ll give you 4.
1st best stream is the Colts. They matchup with one of our favorite targets in JAC, and the Colts defense pinned 20 points on them at their last matchup. Start with confidence.
2nd best stream are the Chiefs. OAK is another good target and gave up 12 points to the average Chargers Def this week. The Chiefs are getting better and are stuffing the run, forcing teams to fly it out. Expect a couple of interceptions in this game and a low score.
3rd best stream is my personal favorite. The Packers are on the rise and eyeing the playoffs with a surging defense and they’re still only 32% owned. They get another target for Defs this week at MIN. Cold weather game again, and the Packers could put up a bunch of points again. If you want a low risk and high upside, pick the Pack.

4th best stream is the Chargers, and I’m still in a ‘show me’ mind on the Chargers. But STL gives up the most Def points than any other team. While I didn’t like SD last week, I like them this week at home.

So here are my projections.
Colts, projected points 14
Chiefs, projected points 10
Packers, projected points 10 with upside to 16
Chargers, projected points 10
Happy streaming and win with diamonds in the rough.

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