Sunday, July 27, 2008

Revving up to evaluate the experts

As many of you know, I spent some time over the past year or so looking at how the fantasy football experts did in their preseason rankings - which sites were the most accurate? Was one site particularly good with RBs or maybe WRs? I've only looked at about 2 years worth of data (and in many cases, really just one year) and my rankings of the rankings are hardly without fault...but it's time to start looking at the 2008 preseason rankings. Below is a list of the sites that I was able to access (either for free or the site comped me access to their rankings) and evaluate in the past. Some of you have requested additional sites be added for this year and beyond - so if you don't see a site listed below and you'd like to know how it does at the end of the 2008 season, let me know!
1. Rotoworld
2. Ask The Commish
3. FootballGuys.com
4. FF Cheatsheets
5. NFL.com
6. FFToolbox
7. CBS Sports
8. Yahoo! Sports
9. Fantasy Football Xtreme
10. Fox Sports
11. Pigskin Addiction
12. SI
13. ESPN
14. ProFantasySports

This year I may try looking at which sites do the best job with predicting rookie success, which we all seem to think is a total crapshoot...but is it? Or if there are enough sites out there that rank IDPs, I might try doing an IDP ranking analysis.

Also, this year I have enlisted help from the Sports Data Hub guys - they will be able to help me use their database powers to maintain all the preseason rankings so that it's easier for me come analysis time next winter - but this info will also be available to everyone on the SDH site so that you all can do your own analysis if interested. This is a big step forward and I'm very grateful to the SDH guys for helping out. If you are an expert site that would be interested in participating, please let me know and I can put you in touch with the SDH guys.

11 comments:

ddarroch said...

I would like to be included in the competition. I rank offense and IDP, let me know the requirements so I can have my site updated next week.

-Doug

http://www.footballburrito.com/

Chris said...

I'd like to see dominateyourleague.com, and fantasysportscentral.com in the competition, as they did pretty well on Rotosource's ranking of experts.

Anonymous said...

RotoWire.com is one major source you don't have listed above.

Also, a big problem with this analysis is the date of each publication's projections. If you take them from magazines and websites .. some are published in May, some in August. I'm sure those projected later are more accurate just because they have more news.

Really the Fantasy Football Index experts poll, which has most of the sites you list, is the best comparison because they make picks at the exact same time based on the same scoring system.

Fantasy Football Librarian said...

Great suggestions - thanks everyone. I'll do my best to get my hands on all of these.

Anon, you make a good point about the dates of the projections; I took that into account with last year's projections and did try to acquire them all within a similar time frame. I'll do the same this year and will take their projections from likely the end of August; probably none of them will come from magazines since as you wisely noted, you never know when that magazine was published. Most sites that produce magazines do update their material online, too.

I haven't seen the Fantast Football Experts Index poll before, so I'm off to go check it out now - thanks for the suggestion.

Keep them coming if you've got more!

Anonymous said...

A couple more projections that you might consider testing: FFToday and FantasySharks. Also, if you are willing to purchase their data, Football Outsiders is always a favorite.

Anonymous said...

Bruno Boys

Anonymous said...

Woops, sent that to early. Can you do this for Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

Thanks

William Kehl said...

Could you please include my site as well?

My final rankings won't be up for about another week-and-a-half, though.

www.fantasyfootballviews.blogspot.com

Anonymous said...

Long time subscriber and curious to see how fantasyfootball.com matches up. Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Wondering if you have ever looked at KFFL's projections and rankings. I'm interested in how they compare to the others you've listed. Anyway, great work I appreciate the thoughtful analysis.

Anonymous said...

Has anyone looked at RotoExperts.com? Scott Engel went to workthere and he knows his stuff. I think he did the projections but i not sure