Thursday, January 29, 2009

Top expert sites for TE predictions in 2008

One of the things I noticed in Tampa was the unbelievable amount of Steelers love. As I flew out yesterday, the plane that deboarded at my gate was full of Steelers fans - at least two gentlemen got a "Here We Go Steelers" cheer going and tiny children to old men were decked out in Steelers gear. I don't even think this plane came from Pennsylvania. The airport attempted to have some Cardinals/Steelers diversification going on but seriously, anyone with even half a good eye and even the crappiest of hearing aids could tell that Tampa is quickly becoming Pittsburgh's town. John Clayton reports that there are roughly 30 bars in Tampa that will be overrun with Steelers fans this Sunday - how many for the Cardinals? Zero.

So part of the fantasy sports conference I attended this week included a dinner cruise (for some it may have been more of a booze cruise...) and while I was waiting for the live band to really kick things off so I could get my dance-loving self onto the dance floor, it occurred to me that a conference with roughly 5 women and 150 dudes was not likely to erupt into a dance party. Must admit I was a little bummed but fortunately I instead had the pleasure of learning which fantasy expert is the most likely to serenade a boatful of conference attendees with some karaoke (not to mention a bit of a dance). I'll let you all ponder which fairly well-known writer that might be...

To the daily links, which are heavy on the Super Bowl details of course:

  • If you're not doing so well in the FFLibrarian's Challenge for the postseason and are looking for another way to show off your awesomeness, try competing against the ESPN fantasy crew in their Super Bowl pick 'em league. There are over 2500 in the group including Matthew Berry (whom I must note - not to blow his cover - comes across as a genuinely nice guy), Eric Karabell, etc.
  • Matt Cassel is among the droves of football-related folks in Tampa this week - The Big Lead has an interview with him covering topics ranging from his future in the NFL to his consumption of sports news to his favorite TV show (The Office).
  • Hey speaking of the Pats, the Tom Brady injury watch is so on. NFL.com sees Brady's fantasy stock on the rise for 2009 - Brady was just taken at the end of the 4th round of my mock draft. I toyed with grabbing him at the 4.07 spot but went with Welker instead. We'll see if that was a mistake. I have my eyes on a different QB in the 5th round though...and no, it's not my golden boy Jay Cutler; sadly he's already gone.
  • Worried about Ben Roethlisberger's ribs? You'll learn nothing new from the big guy himself in his interview with Gregg Rosenthal but the Big Ben Mum on X-Ray Report article kind of amused me nonetheless.
Finally, as promised here is my list of the top 5 fantasy expert sites in terms of their predictions for tight ends for the 2008 season...
  1. Fantasy Football Trader
  2. CBS Sports
  3. ADP (average draft position) from FF Calculator
  4. Fantasy Football Starters
  5. Fantazzle Fantasy Sports Games
I'm intrigued that fewer of the "big" expert names are on this list, but they are represented in other rankings and deeper into the top 10 as you'll see over the next week or so.

5 comments:

Potlicker said...

i'm curious, do you think they picked better just out a shear luck (law of large numbers) so many people are doing it someone is bound to be right or do you think they actually follow a better line of logic or had some inside info? i wonder if that can be quantified those who made the best educated guesses and those who just randomly picked. i guess what i'm going after is consistency. any way to tell who has the best consistency/overall rightness in their advice... not just by the numbers? ok so you picked fitzgerald to be better than wayne this year... you are right but why? what is the level of confidence of each of these picks. "geeze even I was surprised i was right!" or " well after breaking down film last year..." anyway to know that stuff?

PawPaw said...

Now, FFL, just because I'm not doing well in the FFL Challenge doesn't mean I'm not awesome but the rest of you folks are JUST LUCKY! =)

Visine in the Canteen said...

NoFreakinLogic.com studied all the various gurus of FF aboout 5 years ago over a 3 year period. Conclusion, they were all bad at some point during that three year span. The best site the first year, fell towards the bottom the second year and fell in the middle the third year. Some sites were better at getting you information as it happened, BUT that has all changed too. It is hard to get away from the excessive info now. Too much info now leads you paralyzed mentally on draft day.

Fantasy Football Trader said...

(Re: Potlicker)

Only speaking for Fantasy Football Trader here Potlicker. But with TE and Def. we factor in S.O.S. heavily. We track Tight End rec/yds/TD's allowed and weight those against the talent @ T.E. that defense is facing that week.

I agree that "every dog has it's day" and if you're looking for consistency in the truest sense of the word - Fantasy Sports probably isn't your bag.

The reason "skill" is so incredibly difficult to pinpoint in Fantasy Football is that (often), what SHOULD have happened...doesn't. If someone tells you to start a WR and he hauls in a garbage time 86 yd. bomb, that doesn't (in and of itself) mean it was a great recommendation. The results happened to work out that time but it means nothing in terms of the strength of recommendation if that game was theoretically played 100 times.

Stats in the NFL are arrived at by a complex blend of player skill and luck. A blend that isn't measurable even if it was constant! (which it isn't).

My advice would be to not even attempt to measure consistency. It's a fools errand. Instead, look for resources that are giving you their GENUINE instinct, backed by reasoning and stats rather than hunches or what they deem common sense. Find resources thinking for themselves and you've found someone worthy of a bookmark.

Rick Perkins.
Fantasy Football Trader.

Potlicker said...

Thanks for the responses ! that's what i end up doing myself anyway. i find that if i can talk myself into a pick i can then live with the result later good or bad:)i guess the trick is finding out what each persons "instinct" is based on...