Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Mocking my way through the day

This morning marks the start of a fantasy football industry mock draft that I'm involved in - I just grabbed Michael Turner with the 4th overall pick but feel free to follow along with the mock draft on FFToolbox's site, Experts Mock Draft Results. I'll be interested to hear your commentary on my team once it's complete (could take a little while) and what you think some of the best and worst draft picks are.

The mock draft is being run by MyFantasyLeague.com which is also the same great site that is going to host a FFLibrarian league this fall. There will be room for up to 96 teams, divided into multiple conferences. If you're not up for adding another league to your FF dossier, no problem - I'll be doing weekly contests, too, with 365FantasySports.com. More on both contests to come...

  • The Hazean has a few thoughts on QBs that might be flying under the radar this year - I'm kind of digging the QB options this year. Lots of guys who have potential but have risks, too. I think it'll be easier to get a good QB at a decent value this season.
  • ProFootballWeekly takes a look at how Joey Galloway is progressing up in New England and other news tidbits in AFC Whispers.
  • More Wisdom of the Crowds The 2009 RBs, Part II from Football Outsiders - I've linked to this series they're doing a few times but if you haven't seen it yet, they're basically polling FF experts for projections and culling together an average for some key FF players.
  • I don't normally just link to a whole entire site, usually I prefer to give you a little direction on which article or feature to check out...but in this case, I say take a look at all that Kilroyz Krystal Ball has to offer with the IDP Team Previews, IDP Sleepers, and general IDP Updates. I've been saying for awhile that the FF world desperately needs more IDP resources so I'm really pleased to find a new (to me!) IDP site.
  • ProFootball101 has some AFC fantasy QB rankings by division: AFC East QBs, AFC North QBs, AFC South QBs, and AFC West QBs. Hmm, this feels like a very AFC-friendly post. Sorry NFCers.
  • Check out Fifth Down's update on overtime in the NFL and how some fans are getting creative in A Better Way to Decide Overtime in the NFL.


Peter said...

Turner's a solid pick but I would've been awfully tempted to take a chance on Tomlinson because of the PPR scoring.

Anyone else you were strongly considering?

Corbincredible said...

How/When do we sign up for the FFLibrarian league?

Anonymous said...

Interesting mix of picks in the 1st round there FFlibrarian:

M. Turner is a decent pick, just hard to see him having a better year, with A. Gonzo catching balls from Matt Ryan next year. Still though a solid pick overall, but I'm a fan of DeAngelo Williams who was taken with the 12th pick (great value there).

Why so many WRs taken in the 1st round of your FF expert draft?
#7 Larry Fitz., #9 Andre Johnson, #11 Randy Moss

Are three people going for the two-three elite WRs strategy? Too dependent on an good o-line & QB I think. At least an elite RB, needs only an decent o-line at most: Peterson, Turner, et la.

No QB taken to this point in time, 2nd round 6th pick, bizarre... Brees, Rivers, Manning, Warner, A-Rogers, Tom Brady all available.

But the truly odd thing is the greatest difference between the given spots in a std. yahoo FF league points totals last season, was the top TEs versus top QB/RBs/WRs/KR/Def: A. Gonzo (chiefs, now falcons), Jason Witten (cowboys), and A. Gates (chargers)

The gap in point totals was much closer in the QB/WRs/KR/DEF spots than in with the TE, if one is looking at the top 3-5 Elite players versus every other player. So I'm curious who's going to grab those top 3 TEs, if recent FF history repeats itself??

I second that question, How/When do we sign up for the FFLibrarian league???

Anonymous said...

Odd, there's another expert league draft in which 3 WRs were taken in round one (Andre Johnson, Larry Fitz., Calvin Johnson), over at FantasyIndepth.com for all results see http://bit.ly/wlGwQ

There's some truly strange picks in that particular expert draft. Almost reminds me of the experts on Wall Street, laugh....

Matt Calvey said...

I can't understand taking Micheal Turner at 4th overall, particularly in a PPR league. There are many things working against Turner;

1) The Curse of 370. Regardless of whether you believe in the curse or not, recognize that last year was incredibly valuable mostly because he had so many carries. If he goes down to 300 carries, whether from injury, rest or whatnot, his value plummets.
2) Jerious Norwood. Possibly the most talented backup running back in the league, Atlanta SHOULD figure out to use him more.
3) This is a PPR league, and Turner had few catches last year.

Turner is a late first this year, at best, particularly in a PPR format, which pushes him below LT, Jackson and Gore, all of whom were on the board at four, and would have made a better pick, in my mind.

Fantasy Football Librarian said...

I was very tempted to grab LT at the 4th overall. I'm feeling very uncertain about Steven Jackson and Brian Westbrook this year, mostly from an injury standpoint, so I felt like Turner was the safer pick despite the potential lack of receptions he has as compared to those guys. Plus I think the Atlanta o-line wants to prove they can do it again in 09 and will provide some solid run blocking for Turner once again. I really like Turner quite a bit this season so I feel like grabbing him at 4th overall is pretty much ideal.

With so many WRs flying off the board, I was conflicted over what to do with my 2nd round pick. I didn't go QB since I really do think I can get someone great in the 4th or 5th round. Brandon Jacobs was incredibly tempting but I decided to go with Steve Smith instead. I'm looking forward to seeing which great player I can get in the 3rd round!

Matt Calvey said...

It isn't JUST that he doesn't catch the ball, it's a cornucopia of things that would turn me off.

1) The carries. Do you think he will get the ball 375 times again this year? If he doesn't, what is a safe assumption on the loss of carries? 25, 50, 75? If he loses 50 carries, that's probably around 40 points or so from lost yardage and TD opportunities.

2) The catches. Assume LT or Jackson will have 60 catches this year, for 420 yards and 1 TD each. That is 108 points, of which Turner will probably recoup 20.

These two assumptions, taken together (and I think both are 100% reasonable), mean that Turner is losing about 130 points of his value. That is a lot of risk for the #4 pick...

Fantasy Football Librarian said...

Matt, you're good. I like this kind of feedback. It's unlikely to me that Turner will have 375 again this year but I think something in the 330 range is entirely likely. Let's say he can keep up his 4.5 ypc on 330 attempts - nearly 1500 yards, not too shabby. Even if his ypc bumps down to 4.0, still over 1300 yards (4.5 is his lowest ypc, though I realize that's not entirely fair since 08 was his first season as a starter...but still). And with a playmaker like Gonzo on the scene, I envision the ball moving down the field more, perhaps opening up Turner's chances for goal-line TDs. I like Norwood quite a bit but I think Turner gets first stab at TDs, no? And yes, Gonzo moving the ball down the field more might cost Turner some carries but I still think he'll have a 330ish attempts kind of stat line and just benefit from an increase in TDs.

As for LT, love the guy in PPR this league and it was a really hard choice for me between LT and Turner (though I'll note that in the past 5 seasons, LT has only hit 60 rec once). But Jackson and Westbrook I think are too risky to say that they will have 60 catches. Jackson is way too erratic; 90 catches in 2006 but otherwise he's been under 45 every year. And I'm just not feeling him this year - call it gut. Now Westbrook I'd take before Turner except I think the writing is on the wall for him and the injury risk is just too great for me.

We might have to agree to disagree on this one. Or meet in the schoolyard to duke it out. Or just talk about how right on the other person was come January. :)

Matt Calvey said...

Given that you have a site read by millions, and I have one read by me, I would probably assume that you will be right come January. Maybe this is all projected bitterness from my full keeper league, in which I traded Turner prior to last season for the rights to Braylon Edwards...

Keep up the good work, I don't mean to start fights, but the wisdom of the crowds only works if there is a crowd to provide feedback!