Thursday, January 28, 2010

2009 Accuracy Results Are In!

There are few things about my "job" as the FFLibrarian that I enjoy as much as the annual accuracy challenge, so this week is just a really awesome week for me - I get to share with you all which site had the most accurate preseason rankings for the 2009 season: Congrats! So first things first - head over to the Fifth Down's Rating the Rankings in Fantasy Football to read up on how the challenge works (just a small dose of math) and see which other sites dominated this year. Then come on back here and read up on some of the other details...

Okay, now that you've been to the Fifth Down, I want to be sure and alphabetically list all 48 sites that I looked at in the challenge:

Ask the Commish
Bruno Boys
Draft Analyzer Guru
Draft Analyzer Ultimate
Draft Sharks
Fantasy Football Geek Blog
Fantasy Football Maniaxs
Fantasy Football Sherpa
Fantasy Football Starters
Fantasy Football Toolbox
Fantasy Football Trader
Fantasy Football Xtreme
Fantasy Hulks
Fantasy Mojo
FFCalculator (ADP)
Fighting Chance Fantasy
Football Guys
Football Outsiders
FOX Sports
Junkyard Jake
Lester’s Legends
Mission Competition
Numbers & Guts
Pigskin Addiction
RealTime Fantasy Sports
Sporting News
Sports Data Hub
Sports Illustrated
The Huddle

If you are from any of those sites and want to know how you did in the contest, send me an e-mail. I'd be happy to share how you did in each position and across all 4 positions. Speaking of which, let's mosey on over to the positional ranking details:

Top 15 overall sites:
1.    20.33
2.   KFFL    20.71
3.    20.90
4.   Draft Analyzer Ultimate    21.12
5.   Sports Illustrated    21.56
6.   Draft Analyzer Guru    21.60
7.   Fantasy Mojo    21.81
8.   Lester's Legends    21.87
9.   FFCalculator    21.96
10.  Rotohog    22.04
11.  Football Guys    22.06
12.  FFTrader    22.22
13.  Bruno Boys    22.24
14.  Sporting News    22.39
15.  RealTime Fantasy Sports    22.40

Top 10 sites for QBs:
1.   Rotoworld    6.913
2.   WhatIfSports    7.557
3.   Junkyard Jake    7.623
4.    7.7485
5.   FFCalculator    8.280
6.   Lester's Legends    8.385
7.   Ask the Commish    8.430
8.   Fantazzle    8.639
9.   KFFL    8.726
10.  Fantasy Hulks    8.752

Top 10 sites for RBs:
1.   Draft Analyzer Ultimate    20.823
2.   Numbers & Guts    20.967
3.   KFFL    21.589
4.   ESPN    21.820
5.   Accuscore    21.910
6.   Pigskin Addiction    21.940
7.    22.121
8.    22.501
9.   RealTime Fantasy Sports    22.751
10.  FFSherpa    23.064

Top 10 sites for WRs:
1.    31.677
2.   KFFL    32.314
3.    32.337
4.   Draft Analyzer Guru    32.921
5.   Lester's Legends    33.051
6.   FFCalculator    33.552
7.   Sports Illustrated    33.820
8.   Sporting News    34.056
9.   Fighting Chance Fantasy    34.200
10.  Draft Analyzer Ultimate    34.310

Top 10 sites for TEs:
1.   Sports Illustrated    7.172
2.   Fantasy Mojo    7.238
3.   FFToday    7.368
4.   MyOfficePool    7.476
5.   FFStarters    7.549
6.   FFXtreme    7.823
7.   Fantistics    7.870
8.   Ask the Commish    7.937
9.   FFCalculator    7.968
10.  The Huddle    7.971

I've got a lot more in the works during the offseason - I'm going to take a look at the past results from 2007 and 2008 and combine them with these 2009 results to start building a more comprehensive look at which sites are the most accurate with their rankings. I'll also be taking a look at which sites were the riskiest (as compared to ADP from FFCalculator) to see who was risky and accurate, a favorite combo of mine.

If you have any other thoughts about what one could do with all of this data, please e-mail me or leave a comment - I'd love to hear any thoughts on this.

Now for those interested in projections, don't worry we've got you covered there, too. For the first time we included projections in the annual contest and I'll be posting details on those results soon. My buddy Donnie at The Most Credible ran the projections analysis for both football and baseball and the same site came out on top for both: Rotohog. More details on that front to come!


Mike Clay said...

Can't wait to get Fantasy Depth Chart in on this next season. We're taking it all!

LestersLegends said...

Thanks for putting this all together. Great resource for your readers and great exposure for the sites.

The Fantasy Geek said...

Great idea to figure out who's giving the best projections. Hope to get our site involved in '10. Nice meeting you at the FSTA Conference. We didn't get a chance to really chat, but I heard you're a fellow Buff. What's up with CU football these days?!

Dave said...

Thank you, thank you, thank you! The work you do on the accuracy of these sites in INVALUABLE! With so many fantasy football sites out there, it's nice to be able to limit it to a handful of sites that are doing a good job with their preseason rankings.

I can't wait to see the 3 years worth of data too. I'm such a numbers geek! ;)

Zach said...

In your Fifth Down blog post, you say you gather the top 25 QBs, top 50 RBs and WRs, and top 20 TEs for each site's rankings. What do you do for players that finish in the top 25 for QBs and weren't ranked, or players like A. Gonzalez that barely played (if at all) this year but were ranked? Thanks.

Anonymous said...

What are the RMSE's for Football Outsiders across the board?

Unknown said...

Pigskin Addiction here - YOU are simply AMAZING! Thank you for doing what you do.

I can't wait to see the 3 year average!

Keep up the great work!

SC said...

As Robert from the NYTimes site suggested, you need to include FantasyGuru in these rankings if you want top sites. Full disclosure, I am a subscriber to FG and once did some spreadsheet work for them but they don't pay me.

Unknown said...

SC - I'm pretty sure if fantasy guru wanted in the opportunity was there to be included. The 48 sites that were included (correct me if I'm wrong Librarian) were all least it was for us. We just had to send our pre-season rankings in.

Anonymous said...

You're blog is priceless!! Thanks for all your time!