Monday, July 27, 2009

2009 Week 1 projections (already!) and more

T minus 7 until some burly dudes come to ferry off the majority of our possessions to New York City. While I'm sitting here thinking about just how many freaking mugs we somehow own and how one could possibly drink enough coffee to rationalize this level of mug acquisition (and inevitably, how to pack them all...), you all are probably thinking more along the fantasy football lines. Have no fear! My mind is always on football to some check out today's links:

  • We've all heard the phrase Running Back By Committee (RBBC) but FFToolbox takes this committee idea to a different level - how should you draft to create fantasy pairs that might be nearly as effective as a top level player? They've taken a look at both Quarterback by Committee and Tight End by Committee.
  • How much of a benefit will Cutler bring to Chicago? See the Fifth Down's How Many Wins is Cutler Worth?
  • Hatty Waiver Wire Guru has a list of Underrated RBs You Need to Remember, including one of my personal faves, Derrick Ward. Though interestingly enough Sports Data Hub has an article that reminds me to temper my expectations with Ward this year - see Is Derrick Ward this year's Michael Turner? for the details.
  • Peter King is back with some pre-training camp thoughts and news in this week's MMQB. Oh man, I love reading "the 28-week marathon to the Super Bowl is on" - it's here, baby! Football season - finally!
  • Another installment of Football Outsiders' Wisdom of the Crowds - wrapping up the WRs this time with guys like Fitz, Cotchery, Welker and Heyward-Bey.
  • I think FFXtreme had the first start/sit list up and now they're numero uno with Week 1 Projections, too. Love it. Thanks FFXtreme for feeding into my fantasy football addiction...
Finally, if you're part of the FFLibrarian League please remember to check out the league message board from time to time for the latest news. Our draft (which will be conducted on with e-mail notifications) will start on August 24th at 9AM eastern and will conclude before the season starts!


Unknown said...

Every year I think about implementing quarterback by committee, but the limiting factor is bench slots. With most league configurations, I am better off stocking RB/WR depth than keeping two mediocre QBs.

This strategy also works better as an in-season management tool, since it all hinges on strength of schedule. It's historically difficult to know how good a defense will be until Week 3 or 4. Preseason SoS ratings are usually garbage. Plus, every year there is a Chad Pennington or Tyler Thigpen chilling on the waiver wire until midseason. So drafting two scrub QBs is not worth it.

Drafting two TEs should always elicit derision and mockery.

Anonymous said...

"Drafting two TEs should always elicit derision and mockery."

Even in a 16-team league with 8 bench spots and only 2 WRs to start?

I'm thinking at least 60 RBs and 60 WRs will be gone by the end of the draft, and after getting a DEF or two, a K and a TE, you've got 3-4 spots left on the bench. All RB-WR depth? At some point I'd rather take a shot at a TE2 than someone like Aundrae Allison or Justin Forsett.

Unknown said...

Lol, I suppose you got me with that configuration, Anonymous. A 16-team league with 8 bench slots will definitely draft a lot of randoms. But I still think you'd be drafting more for breakout potential there, rather than for a TEBBC. TE strength of schedule is even less reliable/harder to calculate than QB SoS.

Peter said...

I do agree that the strength-of-schedule arguments have to be taken with a fairly large grain of salt, but some seem more reliable than others. It's tough to start RBs again Minnesota, for example. I don't like QBs WRs or TEs against terrible defenses either (so long as the team hasn't the firepower to keep things close with a shootout), but you never know. Studs have a good chance to produce no matter who the matchup is.

If I draft a QB or TE committee, it won't be because their schedules mesh nicely but because I missed out on the elites and want to grab two borderline starters in hopes that one will catch on.

Am I confident Zach Miller (OAK) and Dustin Keller will produce good numbers this year? No, but if I get both, then there's a fair chance ONE of them will.

Anonymous said...

En el caso de Cutler, me pregunto si es mas importante su brazo o su habilidad para guiar un equipo. Todas esas estadisticas de "fifth down" de los ultimos dias son simplemente "misleading" y prueban como uno puede usar los numeros para probar ambas ideas...o en terminos estadisticos no son "significantes". Al final en mi opinion uno deberia computar la "O-line", que es basica para el exito de un QB

Unknown said...

Round 16, I've already drafted Dallas Clark, and Kellen Winslow's still on the board in an 8-man league. Not a chance in hell I'm passing him up.