Friday, July 24, 2009

From deep sleeper to consistency metrics

I think I significantly underestimated how easy it would be to wrap up work projects before I quit and head to NYC. I've got one more week of work at my library in Colorado and keep coming up with more things that I ought to do before I leave...

Let's get right to today's links:

  • The Broncos fan in me was very eager to read the Fifth Down's Cutler's Interceptions: The Context Matters. I love a good stats review of my players. For more player analysis from the Fifth Down, see what KC Joyner has to say in A Closer Look at Addai's Productivity.
  • Next year's NFL Draft is slated to start on Thursday night and spread across three days - I don't mind this idea at all but mostly I'm just thinking about the fact that I might actually be able to attend live and in person now that I'll be a NYC dweller.
  • Those of you who are participating in deep leagues (like the 16-team FFLibrarian League) might be interested in Rotoworld's Deeeep Sleeper: Justin Forsett. Read up on why you might want this Seahawks RB.
  • I'm in agreement with the Fantasy Sharks on Why to Wait on a TE in '09. I've never been one to grab an elite TE and this year is really no exception. If you disagree and think a top TE is worth taking in a 4th or 5th round scenario, I'd love to hear your reasons.
  • Also from the Sharks, take a look at their growing Player Analysis by Division - you can get a player recap and projections by team. Scoping out the Oakland overview just makes me feel really sorry for the Raiders. I mean, just look at the WR options. Wow.
  • Finally, if you're looking for a group of teamsters that will provide you with solid fantasy points week in and week out, then I recommend you take a look at ESPN's Consistency percentage. Not only was this a great read but it's good to see my boy Jason Elam at the top of the kicker consistency rankings.
Enjoy the weekend!


Anonymous said...

If I feel really good about my first few players, then Witten doesn't have to fall far for me to take a shot at him. Past that, I'll be staying away from Gates and Gonzalez this year.

Something else: I happen to be in a spot in my draft that in every round I have to reach a little and/or pass up some better value at RB or WR or QB in order to nab the best TE available, so why not commit the deed early? If I've got an outstanding pair of RBs and a great WR1 and I know of obscene value for RB-WR depth that should be around later in the draft, why not grab a slightly overvalued QB or TE? It's nice to have confidence in all of your positions.

That said, most of my mock drafts end up with me not taking a QB until when Zach Miller or Dustin Keller or Visanthe Shiancoe are available late.

Nathan L said...

Just wanted to say you do some great work on this site. Reading a blog book right now, not to make my own blog, but to see how others have success & how much hard work it is. These links are great though as these articles tend to be hidden on these respective websites, especially the bigger ones. Keep up the good work

Eric said...

I don't know if I would consider a 4th or 5th round pick on Jason Witten or Antonio Gates a waste of a pick. Jason Witten single handedly got someone into the playoffs in my PPR league last year as well as the year before I believe. In a PPR format, a good TE can outshine a no. 2 or evan a no. 1 WR on a good Sunday. With that being said, I am preparing for a draft in a PPR league where you get 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 RB/WR flex position and a TE. Given these facts, do you still find drafting an elite TE in the 4th or 5th round unjustified?

I love your site and read it just about everyday. keep up the great blog. Thanks!

Unknown said...

Tier 1 TEs have high production and rarely bust. Between WR3 (a crapshoot) and a high-quality TE, you're probably better off with the tight end.

That said, the situation has to be close to ideal: Round 5 with 2 RBs and 2 WRs already on your squad and all tier 1 QBs off the board. And preferably in a PPR league.

Otherwise, you're joining the 2nd tier TE lottery where it pays to make your pick as late as possible.