Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Waiver words of wisdom for Week 9

I don't know about you all but I can't believe it's November already - my husband and I are getting our Thanksgiving plans together, but I think despite the fact that we're now many miles closer to our family, we might just have a 2-person Thanksgiving dinner. A large part of it is thanks to my hesitation to travel that week (it ranks very, very low on my list of fun things to do over holiday weekends, especially since we travel like crazy over Christmas) but I'm kind of looking forward to our Thanksgiving. We'll hit up the Macy's Day Parade because we can and watch unbelievable amounts of football - sounds pretty decent to me.

On another note, I should have known you guys would flood the FFL readers' choice survey (thank you!)...to the point that I need to switch survey hosts from PollDaddy back to my original Google Forms plan. So if you try to answer the survey today and aren't able to do so with PollDaddy, stay tuned...I'm getting it switched to Google. And don't worry, if you already voted, I'll be transferring those votes over. Thanks for being patient!

Time for today's best links...

  • Of course there are several waiver wire links to scope out:
  • Sigh. Kevin Smith owners (such as myself), beware of his falling value thanks to the incoming vulture, Maurice Morris. Rotoworld takes a look at what this might mean for Smith's fantasy worth.
  • Take a look at MyOfficePool's Moving Up, Moving Down to get a sense of players who might be worth starting or targeting in a trade. 
  • Wow, the Chargers have released Chris Chambers. They must have read my article for the Bruno Boys last week that noted his poor fantasy points per target ratio this year...kidding, kidding. But on the fantasy front, Malcolm Floyd will probably start turning a few heads.
  • Okay, FFGoat led me to this new site that I think you all will really dig...mostly because many of you have asked me to analyze the experts on a weekly basis, which FantasyXPERT.com has found a way to do. Basically when you sign up for a free account you can access a consensus on the best waiver wire advice, start/sit advice, and player rankings advice. Now where it really gets interesting is that with a premium account you can find out which sites have the most accurate waiver wire and start/sit advice. I'd like to know how they assess the accuracy of those advice pieces, but you can get some details on how they analyze the rankings here, but not a ton since it's a proprietary algorithm.
  • If you're wondering what to do with Owen Daniels or Chris Cooley, take some advice from Top Fantasy Football and see why Fred Davis might be a great grab in Fantasy Sneak Peek: Fred Davis.


Anonymous said...

I think we crashed the FantasyXPERT.com website :(

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the FF Points per target article on BB, enjoyed it. As for Chambers, you couldn't imagine a fantasy start for him, guess the GM couldn't imagine any more real starts for him.

Thanks, Kevin

Anonymous said...

FantasyExpert gives me an error message "Tooltip Script Error Message: wz_tooltip.js must be included INSIDE the body section, immediately after the opening body tag."

That's not a good sign for an expert site.

It's a neat idea but do they tell you how accurate they are or just the sources? I ask because I see a site called FantasyCows.com (which I hadn't heard of before), but if they're using them like they say they are, that site only has weekly rankings up to Week 3. I'd also be curious to know how they manage to take all these different formats and convert them into one. There just aren't any specific details. Maybe I just need to wait until later in the week when the Week 9 information is available.

Lisa Ross said...

Hello all-

Thanks for the post and kudos, Sara. I've heard great things about what you do as well.

Our site did go down today due to a big spike in traffic, but we've made the necessary adjustments with our hosting provider and shouldn’t have any issues in the future. As you can see from the sources that we track, we have a huge database full of projections and accuracy algorithms. Thanks for your patience though.

Sounds like everyone has a lot of questions around our methodology which we're happy to answer. As for Start & Sit and Waiver Wire accuracy, we use a similar type of methodology as with our Player Rankings where we look at a source's projections and then compare those projections to how the NFL player actually did based on a standard scoring model. With Waiver Wire, we analyze how the source's NFL player projections performed over a 3 week period (as opposed to Player Ranking and Start & Sit which is just for 1 week).

As for FantasyCows.com, I've never heard of them either and I don't see anywhere that we list that we track them? There have been several sources that we started tracking (we've actually been tracking sources since 2007) that have gone defunct and we try to weed those out as we find them.

We have a FAQ section on our Website that tries to address all of these questions, but feel free to ping us with whatever you have.

Good luck to everyone in Week 9!
-Lisa Ross, Co-Founder of FantasyXPERT.com