Welcome to the first ever guest post on FFLibrarian. I've been mulling over how to fill some of the void here this week since I've been trapped in a car all day long, moving to NYC and the perfect opportunity fell into my lap: the UltimateNYG offered to share his thoughts on the Giants players' fantasy value. Now here's the catch...he's not a fantasy football guy at all. He just knows a TON about the Giants. I think that almost makes him more valuable since he understands the gist of fantasy football and can share what he knows about the Giants as an avid fan, and turn that into helpful FF advice. So needless to say there are some things that I don't entirely agree with him on, but I think it's great to get his ideas out there. Do you all agree or disagree with his calls?
Without further ado...
Ultimatenyg knows very little about Fantasy Football but enough about the Giants to discuss 1/32nd of the FF drafting stock. Let's go through each position on a FF value basis:
Eli Manning - NO. Stay away. Eli gets better each year, but he is not the kind of QB you can expect to take over a game. And since he still plays in the Meadowlands Wind Tunnel and has not made any offseason attempts to change his grip for the tight spiral, let him drop. Check his stats in late Nov/December. Nasty with a capital N.
Brandon Jacobs - NO. He just signed a big contract, he slows down, he gets hurt every year, his only redeeming fantasy value is that he is a short yardage pounder for TDs. Let him fall for value.
Ahmad Bradshaw - YES. On a value basis he could explode. Assuming he stays healthy and protects the ball (he did not do either very well last year), he is a secret weapon that is #2 on the depth chart behind Brandon Jacobs. That means platoon relief and plenty of touches. The Gilbride factor (see Kevin Boss below) should not be a problem. He'll be in his 3rd year, he knows the offense, he has TD ability every time he touches the ball. We're sticking our necks out here and saying he is going to be awfully good for the Giants this season. Get him.
Danny Ware - Maybe. When all of the RBs are gone, you take him because either Bradshaw or Jacobs will get hurt and then you'll have a lot of touches.
Andre Brown - NO. But get this guy in 2011. Remember where you read about him first.
Steve Smith - NO
Domenik Hixon - NO
Sinorice Moss - NO
Mario Manningham - Maybe. He's worth a gamble at the very end of the draft because he could be a sleeper lottery ticket that gets cashed if he has his s*** together.
Hakeem Nicks - NO
Ramses Barden - NO. 2011 Red zone monster?
Kevin Boss - YES. The only enemy of taking this guy is named Kevin Gilbride, the Offensive Coordinator of the NY Giants. One of these days Gilbride is going to wake up and realize that he has a 1000 yard receiving option who is not a WR. One of these days Gilbride is going to wake up and realize that he has TD red zone money and his name is Kevin Boss. He's big, fast enough and has great hands. All he needs is his number to be called. He has a high TD/reception ratio because he did not get get thrown the ball enough AND still managed to get 5 TDs when Gilbride was awake. This pick has less to do with Boss and everything to do with the OC. If he's in the game plan, you will score big with this player.
Travis Beckum - Maybe. Worth a gamble at the very end of the draft. He's a rookie who could get meaningful touches. No training camp upticks yet.
Summary - Boss and Bradshaw are off the national radar because the OC needs a lobotomy. With Ward gone to TB, this is now Bradshaw's chance. And if the OC gets Tight End religion Boss is tremendous value.
Boss is easy to get down on because of his Superbowl hype, but they've got to throw to someone. With the WRs being what they are, Boss is looking like a sneaky TE2 sleeper in deep leagues.
I'd have liked him to address the defense.
Good guest post. If you want other teams represented in this way, I'll volunteer to do the Vikings.
This was a post about VALUE. Of course Jacobs stats the past two years are KNOWN. His pass catching stats are known. So the info on the margin, what will make 2009 different than 2008, is what is at issue. Jacobs is not expected to make an incrementally positive leap up for yards/TDs etc.. The two players who have significant (INCREMENTAL, as compared to 2007 and 2008) upside are the ones mentioned previously, BOSS and BRADSHAW. Bradshaw was featured today on Giants.com, he played with a calf injury last season and is free from injury now.
As for the Giants defense, they loaded up on DL, so the pass rush should be fearsome. Expect the defense to be stronger and better than last year.
As for question about Jacobs 'slowing down,' it means that each year as the season wears down, Jacobs loses a half step due to injury or otherwise, and is less valuable for his contribution to the offense.
Staying away from the Giants passing game is probably a good idea (exception BOSS) because the WRs will share the touches. MManningham may be of interest at the very end of the draft as a flyer simply if there are few others left because he could be a sleeper that awakens. For more color on that idea, read Peter King's comments on him a few days AFTER mine.