Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Manifestos and bold predictions

Progress...I'm finally feeling a little bit more settled in New York. Funny how a bed, couch and real utensils can make a significant difference. I'm still anxiously awaiting the arrival of the Internet in our apartment since I'm basically a Starbucks lurker now - not my favorite way to spend a morning, though certainly could be far worse.

I've heard from several of you about the annual average rankings that I pull together each August - don't worry, it's en route! That whole moving and lack of Internet thing has put a real cramp in my style but I'll be going out to a bunch of the best expert sites out there and pulling together their rankings to create one central average ranking. I should have that up about a week from now but if you're super eager for that info, take a look at the FFNerd who does something very similar.

Something else to keep an eye on - I'll be doing another column for the Bruno Boys this season and I'm hoping to have my first one up in the next few days. I'll be sure to link over to it once its live.

Now onto the good stuff...
  • ESPN's Matthew Berry's annual Draft Day Manifesto is up and it's lengthy. Read it, digest it, and keep a lot of that advice in mind come draft day. I really like the way he narrows down the stats from last year to show that the number of elite WRs is really quite small. I'm in an expert league led by the Bruno Boys that is drafting right now. From the #2 overall spot so far I've grabbed MJD (reader Matt will be less than thrilled with that move) at 1.02, Marques Colston at 2.11 and Anquan Boldin at 3.02. I'm pleased with my double awesome WRs...
  • The Hazean offers up four rookies that might just be able to come in off the bench and make an impact this season. I'm digging LeSean McCoy in particular; I just have a bad feeling about Westbrook this season (but I really like Westy still...).
  • Drumroll for some bold predictions please...first up, FFToolbox queried each of its writers for their boldest predictions on the season. Read on for thoughts on AP, Michael Vick, and Donald Brown among others.
  • The next bold prediction comes from Rotoworld. Yesterday they suggested that Davone Bess would be the league's leader in receptions. Today their bold prediction is that Matt Schaub will be the #1 fantasy QB. I eat this stuff up. And I continue to dig Owen Daniels and yet he's gone 1-5 picks before me in each league I've participated in so far...I guess I don't have a firm grasp on his value quite yet.
  • In case you were wondering how big a league could be (we're talking a league with just one draft, unlike the FFLibrarian League which has 96 teams but multiple different conferences and drafts), CBS Sports has a 30-teamer, no bench. Interesting stuff.
  • If you're looking for some guys to grab in later rounds, take a look at Hatty Waiver Wire Guru's advice in Late Round Picks.


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Matt Calvey said...

Haha, I see my reputation from MJD hating has made the front page. You honor me. I want to stress that I don't think MJD is a BAD pick at any point in the top five, just that I don't think he is the slam dunk many of his fans expect. I shant rehash the details here, and I'll only root against your success on the weeks when Matt Calvey Inc. plays against MJD.

Thrilled about your receiving options. I have Colston and Boldin in a full keeper league, and I am protecting them like a mother lion this year. The only thing that concerns me is Colston's micro-fracture surgery. It isn't the procedure it might have been ten years ago, but it still raises my haunches.

Where has Roddy White been going, in your drafts? I have him on my team as well, and I noticed that he got some love from Matthew Berry in the great column he posted yesterday. He tends to receive less attention than other "elite receivers" (Moss, Johnson & Johnson, Fitzgerald...) I think this is mostly due to touchdowns, which, I have pointed out ad nauseum, are inconsistent. It wouldn't shock me in the least if we looked back in five months and Roddy White was the #1 fantasy WR in the league.

Matt Calvey said...

As a philosophical question, how are people handling Earl Bennett?

There is a groundswell of hype surrounding him this year, now that he is "reunited" with his college QB. I am wondering though, does the complete void of last season mean that he is effectively a rookie this season? I don't know where to place him, and that bugs me. As a matter of principle, I NEVER draft rookies in one year leagues, and bump them down significantly even in short term dynasty leagues. Do we treat the guy as a rookie (which he functionally is), or as something between a first and second year player? There are big implications for his performance in either case. A rookie receiver would probably be happy with 40 catches, 500 yards and 5 TDs, but you probably aren't playing in week 15 if that's all your WR3 is giving you. Second year receivers often see a substantial jump in production, however, turning those 30 catch seasons into 60 catch seasons, which are good for WR3s. What do you guys think of Bennett, or (to use other guys in a similar situation, Robert Meachem or Dexter Jackson)? Do we treat them as rookies, or do we weight the practice and film experience?