As promised, I've got more analysis on the average rankings position spreadsheet front for you all. So I started thinking about the aggregate Top 100 rankings that I've pulled together over the past few years and wondered (as I always seem to do...) how accurate and successful those rankings were. I'll be saving the big "ranking of the rankings" analysis on specific expert sites for the end of the 2009 season of course but I was curious about what happens to that overall average from all the sites I looked at...for example, how many of those players in the top 20 end up performing well enough that season to nab a spot in the following year's top 20 ranking?
I'll be honest, it's hard to imagine many of these guys falling from top 20 status but here are my thoughts...
Most likely to fall out of top 20: Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, Clinton Portis, Randy Moss, Brandon Jacobs, Frank Gore, and Marion Barber. Most of these guys have potential injury issues.
Could fall out of the top 20 but I'd be surprised: Andre Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Michael Turner, MJD, DeAngelo Williams, Steve Slaton, and Drew Brees.
Physically possible that these guys could fall out but I'd be stunned: Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Tom Brady (not so much because I'm convinced of his top 20 overallness, but the guy didn't even play last year and the experts still have him in the top 20; he'd have to have a leg amputation to fall out of favor with the pros for 2010), Chris Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Calvin Johnson.
So what do you guys think??